Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
What’s Happened:
- Last Week: BTC broke out of its main downtrend line, and moved up from the $85k area to the $95k area. This was upon a softer tone out of Trump and his administration, as they try to provide some support and comfort to markets.
- Big Picture: the main question traders and market participants will ask themselves is whether this is a relief rally in risk assets or are the lows going to be retested. We expect the heightened level of uncertainty will remain, and that'll result in a natural slowdown as businesses and consumers pull back. We expect to see this materialise in the hard data, and then in markets in the upcoming 1-2 months.
- Tuesday: JOLT's Job Opening - they're expected to still come in relatively positive at 7.5m.
- Wednesday: GDP Growth Rate - expected to come in much lower at 0.5%, well below last quarters 2.4%.
- Wednesday: PCE data - expected to come in much softer. Markets would like this, assuming it's supported by strong Personal Spending also.
- Friday: Jobs data - the big one of the week. This is what markets are closely watching. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay flat at 4.2% whilst Non Farms is expected to come in lower at 130k.
- BTC: BTC has moved into the new range (which was an old range) of $91,700 to $98,900 with $95,700 as a mid-level point. This is a key testing level for BTC, and whilst it's possible BTC does break above $95,700, and test $98,900, we do expect this kind of price point to be a local top in the short-term. Beyond that, we'll have to keep assessing and be willing to be flexible on our opinions, especially as we're in a very volatile environment.
- Setup: For now, there isn't a setup that we're too interested in playing. As we mentioned, we do expect price to be near a local top ($95k area), and therefore for now, we'll remain patient and see if we're right on our thesis for a pull back. In terms of levels to the downside, $91,700 is a key level, if that breaks, then $86,000 would be the next natural low level.
Cryptonary’s Take:
BTC has run higher than we expected, however we are expecting the level of macro uncertainty to begin showing up in the harder data over the coming weeks, which we then believe will show that the US is entering a slowdown - this would be negative for risk assets. Therefore, we're not looking to buy up assets anytime soon, and we do expect this to take more time than what many are thinking currently. Alongside this, we've seen many feel a lot of fomo on this price move up, which suggests to us that you're going to get these late buyers, that'll be weak buyers, that'll then likely capitulate on their positions.
We expect this to support a further pull back in price. For now, we remain patient, and we're not looking to enter the markets in the immediate term.
BTC:
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