But nothing prepared us for the frenzy from institutions, regulators, and even presidential candidates to get a piece of the pie.

Well, except that there's very little BTC left for them to fight over – there's an annual record-low of BTC on exchanges.

What does this mean for you? 

Is there a possibility that Bitcoin gains an unfair advantage to become “too big to fail”? 

 Let's dive in.

TLDR 📃

• BTC supply on exchanges is extremely low as users prefer to HODL.
• Institutions, regulators and politicians show increased interest in Bitcoin.
• BTC scarcity and dominance suggest an unfair advantage.
• Bitcoin's market cap growth reduces volatility, making it less risky.
• The pieces are falling in place for our $650,000 price target on BTC.

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make are your full responsibility.

BTC keeps leaving exchanges 🌊

BTC is moving, pouring out of exchanges faster than water from an open dam. Users defy expectations by withdrawing their Bitcoin instead of selling when prices rise, signalling their intent to HODL.

This trend is astonishing, considering the traditional role of miners who sell BTC to cover electricity costs. While miners flood exchanges, a staggering amount of BTC flows in the opposite direction.

The graph above tracks the ebb and flow of BTC in and out of exchanges. Red lines show BTC leaving, with the length of the line representing how much BTC left. Green lines show BTC coming into exchanges, presenting a striking contrast.

But what does this BTC outflow from exchanges mean for the average investor? 

Hold on tight as we delve deeper into the numbers. The balance of BTC on exchanges has hit rock bottom, accounting for just 14% of Bitcoin's current supply. The remaining 86% is unavailable, held by individuals who believe Bitcoin is worth far more than its current price.

If you want a piece of that 86%, be prepared to pay a premium. 

Visual evidence seals the deal. Take a look at the chart below, showcasing the decline in BTC on exchanges. It's so steep you could slip and fall on it. 

Alliances are shifting for a slice of BTC 🍕

So, why is Bitcoin scarce on exchanges? Well, the newfound interest from institutional players provides a clue.

Following Blackrock's recent ETF application, giants like Fidelity, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie have joined the race for their piece of the BTC pie. ARK makes a daring move to update its old proposal to mirror Blackrock's proposal, instead of filing a new application. With their combined $15 trillion under management, institutions are set to clash for scraps because the available BTC on exchanges amounts to a meagre $68 billion.

As if on cue, regulators undergo a dramatic transformation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concedes that banning Bitcoin may not be effective in the long run. Even Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell has acknowledged the staying power of crypto, albeit highlighting its volatility.

But the surprises don't end there. Presidential candidates, in an unprecedented move, are integrating Bitcoin into their campaigns. Robert Kennedy Jr. from the Democratic side and Vivek Ramaswamy from the GOP, champion pro-Bitcoin policies and embrace Bitcoin donations. 

What does the change in tone from TradFi players, regulators, and politicians mean for Bitcoin? It all points to an unfair advantage for Bitcoin.

BTC is set to become too big to fail 🐘

Earlier this year, we published our thesis about a $650,000 target for Bitcoin by 2030; you can read all about it here. It's still too early to boast, but the pieces are falling into place. 

As the tidal wave of money prepares to flow into Bitcoin, the available supply for sale will continue to be scarce. So, the tiny amount available will likely be bought up at higher and higher prices, raising Bitcoin's valuation significantly.

This surge in momentum is set to increase Bitcoin's dominance, a crucial metric measuring its share of the overall crypto market. As institutions snatch up Bitcoin, the dominance scale tips in its favour, propelling its value to new heights. The institutions preparing to buy Bitcoin for their ETFs aren't preparing to do the same for other currencies - at least not yet.

Why does higher Bitcoin's dominance matter? 

It's simple. A more dominant Bitcoin becomes a less-risky investment. As its market cap expands, the volatility diminishes. Why? Because it takes a substantial influx of money to cause a meaningful percentage change in value. It is easier for BTC to go down 10% when it's worth $400 billion, but far more challenging when it's worth $4 trillion.

Price analysis 📊 

Now, onto prices. After a massive ~24% increase in just eight days, Bitcoin reached the $28,750 - $32,000 resistance region and is now awaiting a breakout.

The deal is simple - $32,000 must be taken out for the market to continue rising. If this happens, we can expect Bitcoin to gain the "outperformer" title, leaving the altcoins market thirsty for more. This is a direct result of its rising dominance.

Our eyes are on $40,000 for Q3, but only if $32,000 is flipped into support. Still, this will not be your usual walk-in-the-park rally. Bitcoin will take its time to reach $40,000, and it's likely that we won't be seeing any higher prices than that this year.

Cryptonary's take 🧠

Bitcoin represents the untamed frontier of finance, and the frenzy from institutions, regulators, and even presidential candidates proves it. But here's the catch—they're fighting over a limited supply of BTC. 

With Bitcoin leaving exchanges at an astonishing rate and its dominance rising, it is valid to ask if Bitcoin will become "too big to fail".

While traditional financial giants scramble to catch up, we've been quietly accumulating and investing in Bitcoin, defying regulations and betting on its future potential. 

But are we selling our BTC to institutions at current prices? No way!

We know its true worth and believe it will skyrocket in the years to come.

And as always, thanks for reading. 🙏

Cryptonary, out!