Alpha-DAO

Alpha-DAO: Proposals #12 & 13

Updated: Jul 30, 2024

Published: Feb 22, 2022

Alpha-DAO is a new Decentralized Autonomous Organization created by seasoned crypto researchers.

Disclaimer: This is not investment nor investment advice. Only you are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make and only you are accountable for the results.

The information made available in this report is NOT for replication. The purpose is to share the thought process behind the DAO’s decision making – additionally this is HIGH RISK journey for the DAO which means capital has also been allocated in accordance with this. Once again, DO NOT REPLICATE.

There are two proposals being voted upon by the DAO. The first one is structural while the second one is in relation to a specific short-term investment.

Proposal #12

Context: The initial setting of Alpha-DAO prohibited LPs from making investment proposals.

Let Karim make investment proposals.

Thesis: He breathes crypto, eats charts for breakfast and game theorys his gym workouts.

Implementation Plan: I was initially planning on making this proposal once the DAO went live on mainnet through squads but dev is busy so I’ll re-intro it once he ships us into the metaverse.

Votes: 4 Yes & 1 Abstention

Proposal #13

Status: Voted

Asset: Ethereum | ETH

Description: Buy ETH as future no-coiners sell them to us.

Thesis

We are in a severely distressed market where everyone is talking about a multi-year bear market but nothing has changed from a fundamental perspective, especially as The Merge gets closer, also everyone is expecting “lower”.
The market is over-pricing the Russia/Ukraine situation. I’ve been hearing and asking around from Ukrainian and Russian residents (as you know media should never be taken at face value) and consensus is that an invasion won’t happen - positive for the market when news comes out with a second-degree effect on crypto.
Technicals state that we have the first trial in breakage of the bearish market structure happening now with a potential for a higher low.

Valuation & Risk Management

I firmly believe ETH is a $10T asset on a bad day (4X Apple) but that’s for another time. This time I speculate this change in market structure will lead us towards [$3,800-$4,000] and the plan is to move up the risk curve, should there be a good opportunity, once we see a higher high set that confirms the change in market structure. The invalidation would happen if price sets a lower low - which is under $2,150. 50% gain vs -18% loss.

Research Links

My Brain 🧠
Market vs Invasions - link
Bitfinex Whales longs - ETHUSDL chart

Implementation Plan

I propose to invest $26,000 in this trade, why? Per the Kelly Criterion and my 60% probability of success estimation, that’s how much we should be putting on the line from our free bankroll of $56,000. If passed, 25,000UST will be withdrawn from Anchor and sent to KuCoin, converted to ETH and withdrawn to our Alpha-DAO.ETH address. Also $26,000 will roughly net us 10 ETH and that’s a nice round number sers.

Votes: 4 Yes & 1 No

Conversation

Asad: "I voted NO because I believe this is too low a reward (R:R) for ADAO"

Stan: "I would say that in the current market situation it is the right trade because when the market recovers ETH & BTC will probably lead this recovery"

Karim: "Fair approach. I've stated in the proposal that the plan is "to move up the risk curve" if the change in market structure is confirmed should opportunities present themselves"

Final Words

In hindsight we were incredibly wrong about the Russia/Ukraine situation. Nonetheless, the DAO deemed all other points relevant and voted pro investing in ETH for this trade.