Bitcoin cycles expanding beyond four years: A deeper dive into lengthening cycles
Bitcoin cycles are lengthening, and this is not the perspective of one single person but, a number of analysts have come out to state the fact. Bitcoin, the world's first cryptocurrency, started out to be a developers' experiment but, one the way, changed many hearts and minds. One of the many unique features of BTC is its halving process, which is often accompanied by a bullish movement and preceded by a bearish consolidation.
Bitcoin cycles
Bitcoin miners are responsible for keeping the flow of new tokens into the system. As per data from CMCMarket.com, 50% of the entire supply was mined in by the time of the first halving in 2012, and the rewards were halved from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. A couple of years later, as of 2021, the mining rewards are now limited to 6.225 BTC per block.Furthermore, the data from Blockchain.com suggests that more than 90% of the supply has already been mined for Bitcoin, leaving only 10% behind for investors. However, this supply will last longer because of increasing difficulty in mining and, of course, the competition among the nodes and validators.
The last halving event was preceded by a bearish consolidation for Bitcoin but followed by a bullish outbreak towards $64K. On the other hand, prices dropped further, and now we recently saw BTC touch another ATH at $69,000.
After the halving event in May 2020, Bitcoin has remained bullish overall; however, it seems that after four 4-year Bitcoin cycles, the world's biggest cryptocurrency might be hopping on to a new trend.
Lengthening cycles
The majority of investors believe in lengthening Bitcoin cycles after the failure of the stock-to-flow model in the month of November by PlanB. After the failure of the Wyckoff Distribution Pattern and PlanB's prediction, Benjamin Cowen, a well-known crypto analyst, cemented his belief in the lengthening cycle theory.A year ago, Cowen had explained this lengthening cycle theory via a YouTube video, claiming that Bitcoin cycles are lengthening. The reason behind his statement was a drop in the year ROI or Return of Investment in the BTC token. In the video, Cowen pointed out that the cycles increase their length while the ROI decreases after each year.
Many Twitter-based analysts have come forward to support the theory of Bitcoin cycles lengthening. A prominent crypto trader and analyst pointed out that the world's biggest crypto is gradually undergoing this development in the tweet below.
Another analyst indicated that the 2017 bull run, which followed the halving in 2016, was around 35% longer than the Bitcoin bull run in 2013.
In the chart from the above tweet by the analyst, it can be confirmed that the theory of Bitcoin cycles lengthening is not some fairy tale. Assuming halving as the start of each bull cycle, it is clear that the 2017 market run is longer.
Cowen pointed out in his YouTube video that the theory of lengthening cycles needs to play out a little for a couple of years before confirmation but, he firmly believes that they will be confirmed in the future.
Comparing the bottom of any cycle and the peak of the next, Cowen witnessed that gradually, BTC is taking a longer time frame to complete its movement, which is followed by a decrease in ROI.
Another Twitter analyst, Lark Davis, noted this change via a tweet.
Institutional investment and policy measures
On the other hand, Benjamin Cowen believes that the reason for the lengthening of cycles is an increased influx of money coming in from different leaders around the world. Countries like India, Vietnam, and Indonesia have emerged to be the hubs of huge crypto investors in 2021. Moreover, a number of celebrities have supported NFT projects and DeFi platforms.Major companies like Newegg, AMC Theatres, PayPal, and even Starbucks have supported cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, with the support of Elon Musk and Michael Saylor, Bitcoin has seen an inflow of billions of dollars as it even breached a market cap of $1 trillion dollars.
2021 a redefining year for Bitcoin cycles
With the continuous inflow of money, the Bitcoin cycles decrease in volatility as yearly ROIs also decrease. This year, Bitcoin has seen many ups and downs as well as the entire crypto market.The NFT market, which is still considered an easily reproducible items industry by Keanu Reeves, followed by blockchain-based gaming volumes, has skyrocketed by huge numbers.
Moreover, countries like El Salvador, Brazil, and Australia have adopted crypto-friendly behavior. Even cities like New York and Miami are now untouched by the idea of crypto adoption, and it seems that this is just the start.
As pointed out by the CEO of Pantera, Dan Morehead, Bitcoin cycles are no longer constricted to a 4-year period, and we will see prices stabilize.
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