Bolsonaro 2022 Futures Contract
FTX announced that the new futures contract, called Bolsonaro 2022, will expire at $1 if the current president wins the election, and at $0 if he fails. Brazilians will go to the polls on October 2, 2022. However, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the winner will be determined in a second round of voting on October 30. If the presidential election is cancelled or no winner is announced by the end of 2022, the futures contract will expire at $0.There are different risks associated with this contract when compared with futures on Bitcoin or Ethereum. For example, there is a much higher chance of seeing large moves in either direction. In theory, if a user estimates Bolsonaro's chances at 52%, the contract should trade at $0.52. In other words, the price should be equal to the probability of re-election. However, in reality, other factors such as demand and supply, as well as the cost of capital, also play a role.
It's not the first time FTX lists an election on its platform
Earlier this year, FTX offered its users the opportunity to speculate on whether Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election. The market price for Trump 2024 is currently $0.085 with a daily volume of only $20. The contract will settle at $1 if Trump is president on February 1, 2024, and at $0 if he loses.These future contracts allow people to bet on real world events. Hence, it's likely there will be more of these contracts in the future.
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