Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
- Yesterday, BTC underwent a small leverage flush out.
- This is where too much leverage was put on, in this case, in Longs, and as prices came down, these late Longs were flushed out.
- On Binance, the Open Interest fell from 98k BTC down to 91k BTC, so a 10% move down in Open Interest.
- The Funding Rate had also moved too high (too much Long leverage). It was at 0.1%, which is approximately 10x too much. Since the flush out, Funding has reset to 0.01%, so there is a large decrease.
- This leverage flush-out was needed, and it is healthy in bull markets.
Technical analysis
- Wow, what a candle that was yesterday.
- We had a breakout of the bullish pennant, and upon this breakout, we saw Longs really pile in.
- Too much leverage left Longs vulnerable to a flush-out, which is exactly what we got.
- The flush out was swift, with the price pulling back all the way to $90,500. However, it was aggressively bought up.
- The $87,000 to $91,500 zone we identified as our major support is exactly where the price bounced from.
- Price now finds itself back in the bullish pennant, squeezing towards its highs of the last fortnight.
- If the price can break back above $100k, then it's very likely that the price swiftly moves back to $104k 105k.
- The RSI remains just shy of overbought territory, so there is room for the price and this indicator to move higher.
- Next Support: $91,500
- Next Resistance: $104,000
- Direction: Bullish
- Upside Target: $104,000 (then $110,000)
- Downside Target: $91,500
Cryptonary's take
Yesterday's flush-out had seemed inevitable over the last week or so as we've seen Open Interest continue to move up. As soon as funding began to ramp up aggressively, Longs became vulnerable, as we expected it would be.This then happened (late Longs piled in) upon a clean breakout of $100k. We see yesterday's price action as necessary in this kind of market, and bull markets need this to happen in order for the bull to continue. So, we see it as really healthy and necessary.
We still expect that Bitcoin can break out over the coming days/week. It's possible there's more range-bound at these higher $90k levels, but we do expect another breakout to the upside to come in the coming week. We wouldn't be surprised to see BTC back to $104k by the end of play this Sunday.
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