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Market Direction

Bitcoin to $80K or $100K next?

Published: Feb 18, 2025
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Bitcoin ($BTC) remains range-bound between $95,600 and $98,900, with key support at $91,700. The funding rate suggests indecision, but downside risks persist. A breakout is coming—will BTC move higher or break lower?

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.


BTC:

  • Bitcoin's Open Interest has generally downtrended since mid-December, however, it has risen 6% from the lows in late January.
  • The Funding Rate has remained positive and fluctuated between 0.004% and 0.01%. This suggests some indecision amongst traders, but still with a slight bias towards Longs.
  • Overall, this is a more healthy leverage environment.
BTC's funding rate:

1. A graphical representation of Bitcoins open interest-weighted funding rate, showing fluctuations in funding rates and BTC price movement over time.

Technical analysis

  • BTC has remained in a really tight range between its local support of $95,600 and its local resistance of $98,900.
  • Beyond $98,900, the $100k level should act as a tricky psychological level, whilst the main horizontal resistance is at $106,900.
  • To the downside, we expect $91,700 to act as key support as this also closely matches the short-term holder cost basis price ($92k).
  • Sub $91,700, and the key levels are $87,100 and $80,300.
  • The RSI is in relatively middle territory, so it has a downside if the price wants to go lower. The RSI is also beneath its moving average and finding that to be resistance currently.
2. Bitcoins daily chart with trendlines, resistance at 106,971, support at 91,730, and an RSI indicating a potential downside move.
  • Next Support: $95,600
  • Next Resistance: $98,900
  • Direction: Bearish
  • Upside Target: $98,900
  • Downside Target: $91,700

Cryptonary's take

Bitcoin has been in this tight range now since early February. We are expecting a break at some point soon, and we're expecting this to be to the downside. For now, we remain risk-off, however, we will look to lightly add to our long-term BTC bags between $87k and $91k. Whilst we'll more aggressively add between $80k and $87k.

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