Altcoin dispersion grows, AVAX and TON tested

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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AVAX:

Market context

AVAX has fully retraced its move from the back end of Q4, returning to the same $19–$23 accumulation range that previously fueled a 225% rally in 2023, setting a cycle high at $64–$65.20. The structure has since weakened, with a lower swing high at $56–$55 following the Trump election, and now, after retracing the entire move, the potential for a lower low is in play.

This forms a clear bearish pattern on a macro scale, reinforcing that AVAX’s overall trajectory is not bullish despite its previous bullish periods. The broader altcoin market continues to struggle for sustained bids, with capital dispersion and oversaturation making it difficult for assets to hold momentum. The downside momentum remains aggressive, and sellers have dictated the market with volatile and decisive moves.

Playbook

There is no reason to take action on AVAX at this stage. The market structure is fragile, and with the potential for a new lower low, stepping in prematurely carries unnecessary risk. Until conditions shift and momentum stabilizes, waiting remains the best approach.

Cryptonary’s take

AVAX is a prime example of how altcoins have struggled this cycle. The trend is weak, dispersion is high, and the market environment does not favour a sustained upside. There is no urgency to step in, and patience remains the best move until a clearer opportunity presents itself.

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TON:

Market context

TON has maintained a strong macro trend, expanding 328% from February to June 30th, 2023, and achieving an overall 680% move from its 2023 lows. Currently, it is sitting at a 57–58% retracement, reflecting a structured pullback rather than a complete trend shift. While the price action resembles a bull flag, it’s important not to force labels onto the chart—what matters is the underlying trend and whether key levels hold.

Previously, there was a buy box between $3.50 and $2.90, but this has now been redefined as an Area of Interest (AOI). This shift reflects the current market context, where conditions are uncertain, and accumulation must be more selective. The AOI is a term coined to define a price area where potential interest exists, but entry depends on how the market develops.

Playbook

TON remains an asset of interest but not an immediate buy. The $3.50–$2.90 range aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, making it a technically significant level. If prices hold within this range, it could offer a strong long-term accumulation point. However, given the broader market weakness and availability of stronger opportunities elsewhere, there is no urgency to act. The approach remains to wait and observe, letting market conditions dictate the next move.

Cryptonary’s take

TON has demonstrated long-term strength, and for those who believe in its future potential, the current AOI is a key level to monitor. However, Cryptonary does not hold this asset and does not plan to add it to Cryptonary’s Picks. This analysis reflects individual perspectives rather than an official stance.

While TON remains a solid asset, the market currently offers stronger opportunities elsewhere, and as conditions improve, even better setups may emerge. Those interested in TON should closely monitor price action within the AOI and be patient, as market-wide liquidity will ultimately dictate when the best time to act will be.