April… the month of boredom? | April 6th
Dying of boredom? Trust us fellas, so are we. 🥲 The market has been ranging for a few weeks as it prepares to make a decision, one that will determine April’s performance. In this week’s report, we take a hard look at prices to see how the market can perform during April and how we can profit from it.
TLDR
- The Total Market Cap and Bitcoin remain under resistance. The longer we stay under, the harder it will be to predict where we’re going.
- Ether is approaching $2,000. This is a major resistance level on longer timeframes, so don’t let greed take over if you’re in profit.
- SOL remains stuck in the $22 - $19 range. Only a break of one of these levels is of interest to us.
- BNB experienced solid buying pressure after testing $300. This week’s closure could hint at more upside.
- XRP is still at resistance. You should avoid buying right now.
- ADA reached resistance ($0.40). It will likely go lower from here.
- DOGE reached resistance at $0.10. Volatility should be expected.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
Total Market Cap (Weekly)
The Total Market Cap index represents the entire valuation of the cryptocurrency market. We track this index to understand where the market is now and predict where it will go.
Total market cap remains at resistance ($1.18T). This is now the third indecisive week after we tested this level for the first time, indicating buyers might have a hard time breaking resistance.
A break above $1.18T will put $1.35T in the cards. Although we believe this will happen at some point during Q2, we can’t help but think that a pullback to $1.03T remains the most likely outcome here because price action is slowing down under resistance.
So you might want to take your hand off the buy button for now. After all, there’s no point in trading or investing when the risk outweighs the reward.
Altcoins Market Cap (Weekly)
The Altcoins Market Cap index represents the entire valuation of the altcoins market (all coins other than BTC).
The altcoins market performed quite well this week. Some altcoins rose by 5%, 7% and even 10% as a result of Bitcoin’s dominance dropping.
From a technical standpoint, the altcoins market cap index is still on track for the $650B - $700B resistance area. However, this move can be invalidated if Bitcoin takes the pullback route and drops, so caution is advised!
BTC | Bitcoin (Weekly)
It feels like we’re becoming fossils as Bitcoin remains under $28,750. This level is important in the short-term. We’ll have to wait and see how Bitcoin reacts to it – so we’re going to be fossils for just a little longer. Our take hasn’t changed - Bitcoin has higher odds of going down to $25,150 first. The $28,750 - $32,000 resistance spread is a major one, and Bitcoin doesn’t seem to have enough volume to break above it yet. The past three weeks have shown this (candles with short bodies and longer wicks).
It’s a waiting game for now.
ETH | Ethereum (Weekly)
Altcoins took control for a while this week, with most rising by 5% or more. Ether managed to bounce from its $1,740 support level and is now approaching $2,000.
This level is major for Ether. We have seen aggressive moves after testing this level as both support & resistance in the past. If the price reaches $2,000, we don’t believe Ether will break this level yet. Instead, it will follow Bitcoin’s price action, which is expected to go down.
BNB | Binance (Weekly)
Binance exhibited selling pressure on Monday, but buyers have invalidated most of it already. This is an indication of demand in the $310 - $300 region (gray box).
If BNB can hold this area as support, bouncing to $335 could result in a higher low formed in this area, keeping the weekly bullish market structure intact. Unfortunately, this isn’t in line with our expectations for Bitcoin in the short-term, and Bitcoin going down will invalidate BNB’s move to $335.
XRP | XRP (Weekly)
Yes, XRP is outperforming the market right now. However, that doesn’t mean buying right now would be ideal. The asset is at resistance ($0.60 - $0.50).
There’s a simple formula behind trading and investing - buy low, sell high. Buying now defies that concept, so it would be best to wait until XRP provides another opportunity – or look elsewhere instead.
ADA | Cardano (Weekly)
ADA is trading just under the $0.40 - $0.445 resistance area, and the odds of a rejection (going down) are high.
The asset has been in a long down-trend – almost 600 days as ADA has seen low volume and low demand. The only way it can rise right now is with Bitcoin’s help, and Bitcoin is at resistance.
For that reason, the odds of a rejection from the $0.40 - $0.445 resistance area are high. If Bitcoin breaks $28,750, ADA might take a swing at the top of this region ($0.445).
DOGE | Dogecoin (Daily)
After another of Elon Musk’s free-time activities (replacing Twitter’s logo with Doge), the asset rose by more than 30%, reaching resistance at $0.10.
We’re already seeing selling pressure coming in, as well as longer wicks than usual. Volatility is high around the $0.10 mark, so we might not see DOGE breaking above it unless Musk replaces Tesla’s logo with Doge as well. The best thing to do here would be to just let things flow. Price action is unpredictable right now, so we should stay away from it.
MATIC | Polygon (Weekly)
MATIC has been steadily dropping for the past few weeks, suggesting that there’s low demand here.
The only way MATIC will reach $1.30 is with Bitcoin’s help (it will need to perform well), and Bitcoin is at resistance. For that reason, we might see MATIC heading down unless Bitcoin breaks $28,750.
SOL | Solana (Weekly)
SOL is stuck in the $22 - $19 region, and only a break of one of these levels will confirm its next direction. In the meantime, the only thing we can do is wait.
A break of $22 will put $30, while a break of $19 will put $15 on the cards.
DOT | Polkadot (Weekly)
Like SOL, DOT is stuck in a range. We will have to wait for the asset to break above $7 or under $6 to confirm its next move. In the meantime, this range offers short-term trading opportunities.
LTC | Litecoin (Weekly)
Last week’s candlestick is known as a “hanging man”. It usually marks a local top and signals downside.
When paired with Bitcoin’s potential pullback, this candlestick can be used as confluence for the bearish scenario. For that reason, LTC might be forming a weekly lower high, which will put it on track for the nearest support level at $81.77.
Cryptonary's take
Most times, the best way to win is to wait. Let events play out as they are supposed to, and then make the best move you can. What’s happening with the market right now requires patience. Once something decisive happens, we’ll know, and so will you. Only then can we make our best move.
Action points:
- Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s $28,750 level. That’s the only level you should be watching right now.
- Do not open any positions right now, unless they’re for the short term. The market could go down, and you could enter lower.
- Avoid opening longs on assets that are at resistance. The risk outweighs the reward.
- Elon Musk’s influence on DOGE’s price makes it a dangerous asset to trade with. If you’re inexperienced, it’s best to stay away from it.
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