We dive into the latest BTC price action and on-chain data. By the way, our conviction is wavering on the possibility of seeing BTC at $33k; could brighter days be ahead?
We analyze key levels for other altcoins that are top of mind for many Cryptonary members.
For instance, will SOL push above $100 again? Can LINK hold $17 support? Is MINA poised for a run to $1.50?
Well, we answer all these and more in today's market direction.
Let's dive in.
You can jump to the analysis of assets you are most interested in by clicking the directional links below.Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.
BTC update
Mechanics-wise, BTC's Open Interest has increased by 5% over the last 24 hours. However, Funding has remained flat at 0.01%.With this increase in OI and a flat Funding rate, Shorts may be beginning to come in here and show some size.
We wouldn't say Shorts are vulnerable here, but it is something to watch out for to see how it progresses.
Technical analysis
- From a zoomed-out perspective, price remains between the key range of the $40,900 horizontal support and the $43,900 horizontal resistance.
- Price has broken below the local uptrend line but has done well to reclaim the $43k level.
- Price has tested the low $42k twice over the past week and bounced from this level.
- If price can move higher to test $43,900, a bullish sign would be a push into the orange box between $44,200 and $44,900. If price breaks above this level, then $47,200 would be the next target.
- To the downside, $40,900 is still the key level.
Cryptonary's take
It is very difficult here to provide a definitive direction.BTC may move higher and test the $44k area, even the orange box. However, we don't see BTC getting above this level in the short term. If we had to pick on direction, we still side with further downside over the coming weeks.
However, recent strength, i.e., the lack of a breakdown, decreases our conviction. But we do still see the market heading lower. We just don't have the same conviction as in the call we made a few weeks ago.
While price remains between $40,900 and $44,000, we are taking no action. If price breaks below $40,900, then we will look to DCA into BTC if it reaches $38k, with further aggressive DCA orders all the way down to $33k.
Although, unless there's a black swan event, we are not sure we will see BTC at $33k. $36k is still possible, though.
However, we'd rather be ahead of participants and start DCA'ing at $38k, just in case price doesn't get to $35k or $36k.
SOL update
SOL's Open Interest is high again, with Funding dropping below 0.01% (but only just).This does suggest there is more Short interest. However, Shorts do not seem vulnerable to a squeeze currently.
Technical analysis
- As we called for last week, once SOL was rejected from the orange box area and lost its uptrend line, we'd likely see more subdued price action, particularly when price retested the underside of the uptrend line and rejected from it.
- Price is now at a key point. If $99 cannot be reclaimed, then we will likely see lower prices for SOL.
- To the downside, there are a lot of support areas for SOL. The $91-$93 area is the next support, with $86 and then $79 being the next two major horizontal support levels.
- The RSI is in a middle level at 51, so this has room to run in either direction. The RSI isn't a headwind for price action at all here; it is something to note.
Cryptonary's take
For now, we continue to hold Spot SOL and are not looking to sell (long-term holding).However, we will be looking to add more SOL if price can get to sub $86, between that $79 to $86 range.
We are now becoming more sceptical of the yellow box between $59 and $65 being filled.
It's a case of identifying zones and continuing to DCA into those price points. For us now, it's $79 to $86; anything sub $79, we will aggressively DCA.
Constant preparation is needed to build those bags for the bull run. SOL will be one cycle's winner.
LINK update
The mechanics for LINK are beginning to get out of hand.The Open Interest is up massively, although Funding is still flat.
The OI will likely get flushed out at some point, which will most likely mean a price decline.
Technical analysis
- LINK has broken out of a key resistance at $17.74, which is why price has moved materially higher.
- If price does pull back, ideally, the prior resistance of $17.74 will become new support.
- If price does pull back into the old range, then the $15 to $16 should act as strong support.
- The RSI on the 12hr is very overbought, while on the 1D, it has just entered the overbought territory. So it's possible LINK can run further here.
Cryptonary's take
This is a nice move from LINK and why it's important to be Spot holders.If LINK can maintain above $17.74, then this would be very positive for a more sustained upside move.
LINK will likely be a good Short at some point. The metrics we are watching out for would be more price highs and for the RSI to put bearish divergences on major timeframes in overbought territory. Until we get that, we'll steer clear of Shorts.
If the price falls below $17, the $15s may be a good area to begin DCA'ing again.
SHDW update
- Price is back into its key range between $0.92 and $1.05.
- We have remained patient on SHDW and suggested that below the $0.92 horizontal support would be a good area to DCA into SHDW if not already in.
- If the $0.92 support is broken, then price could fall as low as $0.68, as that is the next major support. However, between $0.68 and $0.92, SHDW would likely be bid.
Cryptonary's take
SHDW is now at the price point where it is more of an attractive buy again.Below $0.92 is almost local price discovery, and we are not ruling out price just bouncing from $0.92 either.
However, the area to buy that we are interested in is sub $0.92. But, due to the potential for a form of price discovery to the downside, our buying strategy is unique. we are using the DCA function on Jupiter to buy x amount of $ worth of SHDW every week for the next 12 weeks (prior to BTC's halving) with a price cap of $0.92.
So, every week for the next 12 weeks, x amount of USDT will be converted to SHDW, assuming 1 SHDW is less than $0.92.
We will reassess this as the weeks go on and judge how this strategy is going based on how price action is.
Let's see.
MINA update
- MINA has broken out of the downtrend line, and price has pushed up to, but has been rejected at the horizontal resistance of $1.28.
- Price has formed a local uptrend line, and for now, it is holding that level/trend.
- Overall, it is a perfect bounce from the yellow box, which we have called for in prior MINA analysis.
- The main horizontal support to the downside will be the yellow box again, along with the $0.93 horizontal level.
Cryptonary's take
This is another we'll be patient on.Sub $1.00, it's worth building a small position in MINA, particularly if you're not currently positioned.
However, our DCAs will become more aggressive if price goes below $0.93, down to $0.68 to $0.79.
Again, we'll continually keep assessing price action. If price is holding up well, then our aggressive DCA price zones may move up slightly.
SNX update
- Price has found support in the yellow box.
- Price is also squeezing into the downtrend line, potentially setting SNX up for a breakout to the upside.
- However, the horizontal level of $3.23 may provide some resistance to price getting above.
- To the downside, there is significant support at $2.74
Cryptonary's take
If the market as a whole, i.e., BTC, can hold up, then SNX may be setting up for a breakout here if price can get out of the downtrend and then break out of $3.23.The target of this move would likely be $3.67.
We'd be looking at $2.74 for long-term accumulation levels.
However, this may change if price can see a substantial breakout in the coming days.