Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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AVAX:

Market context

AVAX has returned to a crucial floor—the $19–$21 range—which has acted as a structural base throughout the 2024 cycle lows. This is also a key historical area dating back to December 2023, marking the scene of the crime for previous liquidity events.

While this level has held strong multiple times, the next major downside region sits much lower at $8, a level that marked the true beginning of AVAX’s previous cycle expansion in September 2023. This area also carries historical significance, having been a major inflexion point in July 2021.

Right now, the broader market is in a phase of declining volume and shifting attention away from crypto and risk assets. If sentiment continues to weaken and liquidity dries up further, the possibility of AVAX breaking down toward that lower level cannot be ruled out. While not the base case yet, it’s a scenario that needs to be mentally accounted for.

Playbook

For now, $19–$21 is the level in play. As long as this zone holds, it remains a tradable area for those looking to position around structural support. However, a confirmed breakdown would open the door for a potential cascade lower, making $8 the next relevant downside region to monitor.

If you’re an AVAX holder, stay prepared for volatility and be aware of the broader macro shifts impacting liquidity and risk appetite.

Cryptonary’s take

AVAX is at a make-or-break level. The $19–$21 range has repeatedly held throughout the cycle lows, but with volume declining and liquidity drying up across the market, it’s not a level to blindly trust.

While a breakdown toward $8 isn’t the base case yet, the conditions for lower prices are forming. If risk appetite continues to fade and capital rotates out of crypto, AVAX could be vulnerable to a deeper downside.

For now, this level is in play, and as long as it holds, it remains a structural floor. But any sign of weakness or loss of support should be met with caution. Be prepared, stay adaptable, and don’t get caught off guard.

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Nosana:

Market context

Nosana is at a critical inflexion point as well, with $1.32 acting as the key level in play. This level has historically been significant, with prior price reactions—most notably the wick formation on August 5th and another reaction on February 24th. Additionally, $1.00 carries psychological weight as a round number, making it an area of interest for both buyers and sellers.

Despite its significance, $1.32 may not hold as firm support. Given Nosana’s overall bearish structure since topping out on March 4, 2024, it’s possible that this level sees more selling pressure rather than an immediate bounce. If that happens, the next key downside level sits at $0.475, which marks the scene of the crime from December 2023—a level where prior accumulation and major price action unfolded.

Nosana’s retrace aligns with broader altcoin trends, as many assets are now revisiting their previous cycle lows. The market-wide sentiment shift, declining liquidity, and fading risk appetite suggest that further downside remains a possibility.

Playbook

For now, $1.32 is the level to watch. If price stabilizes and demand steps in, it could act as a base for a potential recovery. However, given the current structure and prevailing sentiment, the risk of further selling remains high. If sellers dominate at this level, the likelihood of a break lower increases, putting $0.475 into play as the next major support zone.

With Nosana’s structure already leaning bearish, holders should be prepared for volatility and potential downside continuation. The broader altcoin market is retracing much of its prior expansion, and this trend could persist unless new demand enters the market.

Cryptonary’s take

Nosana is on the edge of a deeper breakdown. While $1.32 is a historically relevant level, the overall structure doesn’t favour an immediate reversal. With liquidity drying up across the board and altcoins struggling to hold key supports, a move toward $0.475 remains a real possibility if buyers don’t step in aggressively.

This isn’t the time to blindly assume support will hold—patience and confirmation are key. If the price stabilizes and shows genuine strength at $1.32, it could be a tradable area. But if weakness persists, expect lower prices and plan accordingly.

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Optimism ($OP):

Overview

Optimism ($OP) has held its ground despite the recent Bitcoin sell-off, showing stability in its price action. It has maintained its position above the $0.79 low made on February 3rd and has continued to consolidate within this range.

The fact that OP did not make a new low during Bitcoin's correction is a positive sign of relative strength. If this consolidation continues, OP could reclaim the weekly demand zone and begin to stabilize further.

Key levels to watch

• Resistance levels:
  • $1.21 → Key short-term level to reclaim for a shift in momentum.
  • $1.82 → Major resistance in the medium-term if OP builds strength.
• Support levels:
  • $0.79 → Feb 3rd, holding strong despite broader market corrections.
  • $0.65 → Solid support zone in case of a breakdown below $0.79.

Potential scenarios

1. Bullish scenario:
   • If OP continues consolidating above $0.79 and reclaims $1.21, we could see a move into the weekly demand zone (grey box) for further accumulation.
   • A successful reclaim and sustained chop in this area could set up a move toward $1.82 in the medium term.
2. Bearish scenario:
   • If OP loses $0.79, we could see a further decline toward $0.65, which is a strong support level.
   • This scenario seems less likely unless Bitcoin sees another major sell-off, which could push OP lower.

Cryptonary's take

OP is showing strength in this range despite Bitcoin's volatility, signalling relative strength compared to many altcoins.

The key focus remains on the $0.79 - $1.21 range as long as OP chops in this area and holds support, it is positioning for a potential move higher.

For now, the most likely scenario is continued consolidation, and a reclaim of $1.21 would be the first step toward bullish momentum.