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Technical Analysis

Battle of Memes: Analysing the strongest cults

Updated: Nov 15, 2024
Published: Nov 14, 2024
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Welcome to the first report of "Battle of Memes." The meme coin market is nothing short of fascinating, with shifts that can redefine the entire space overnight.

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As enthusiasts of this highly volatile yet rewarding sector, we're seeing significant moves with the recent Coinbase listings of Pepe (ETH) and WIF (SOL), adding an unprecedented layer of legitimacy to meme coins. Not only does this mean broader accessibility for these assets, but it also highlights meme coins as a category in their own right.

Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, two names that have stood out in past cycles, have made significant comebacks, with Dogecoin breaking the $57 billion market cap and climbing to #6 in the rankings. Shiba Inu, too, has cemented itself on the #12 spot. When meme coins hold these top spots in the market cap rankings, it signals a bullish outlook for the entire sector, drawing in serious interest from both traders and investors.

In this report, we're diving into three sections. First, we'll compare the Meme Coin Index, composed of the top five meme coins by market cap, with the Barbell Meme Index, which consists of our chosen picks: Dogwifhat, Popcat, and SPX6900.

Next, we'll analyse the Solana Meme Index against the Ethereum Meme Index, looking at the top meme coins on each chain. Finally, we'll close with an in-depth analysis of each individual pick in the Barbell portfolio. This breakdown will give a clear view of how our meme selections perform against the broader meme coin market, as well as against the Solana and Ethereum ecosystems.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.


Meme coin index vs. Barbell Meme index

Meme coin index

The Meme Coin Index, composed of the highest-cap meme coins, has witnessed a powerful rally. This index saw a boost primarily from Dogecoin's explosive 105% increase over the past week, elevating its market cap to an impressive $57 billion. Such growth is echoed by other coins in the index, including Shiba Inu, Pepe, and Wif, which have all recorded gains ranging from 35% to 100%.

The current value of the Meme Coin Index stands at 0.41, having broken past its previous March high of 0.326. This breakout indicates a bullish shift as the index establishes new support, which is crucial for sustained upward momentum. For the Meme Coin Index, 0.326 now acts as a key level that can potentially absorb selling pressure if the market faces a correction.

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From a technical perspective, the Meme Coin Index has been in a prolonged consolidation phase that set the stage for this recent rally. After stabilizing around 0.17 in early November, the index shot up to 0.46, marking a significant 176% return. This surge is not only a response to individual coin performances but also a reflection of the growing ecosystem as a whole.

As meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu draw attention, their rallies have a cascading effect, lifting the broader meme coin sector. The listing of meme coins on major exchanges like Coinbase only amplifies this effect, as increased visibility leads to higher trading volumes and heightened investor interest across the board.

The recent performance of the Meme Coin Index suggests that meme coins are transforming from a novelty to a viable if speculative, asset class. This shift is driven by a blend of social media hype, community engagement, and speculative interest. The Coinbase listings have accelerated this trend, making it easier for new investors to enter the space and drive prices up further.

Looking forward, if the Meme Coin Index maintains its current momentum and consolidates above 0.326, it could set the stage for even more dramatic gains. This level of support provides a foundation from which the index can either stabilize or rally further, creating a compelling scenario for both short-term traders and long-term investors.

Barbell Meme index

The Barbell Meme Index, which includes Dogwifhat, Popcat, and SPX6900, offers a more targeted approach for those seeking outsized gains. Trading at 2.89, this index has been supported by Dogwifhat's strong 70% weekly rally and has performed exceptionally well, up 128% from its November low. Unlike the broader Meme Coin Index, the Barbell approach focuses on capturing gains in niche, high-potential meme coins, with a solid support level at 2.15, serving as a foundation for further upside. The index's targeted strategy is designed to leverage the strongest performers, potentially outpacing the general meme market.

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In terms of comparative performance, the Barbell Index stands to benefit from the volatility and concentrated interest in emerging meme coins. With fewer assets but higher individual performance potential, the Barbell Index is set to capitalise on the market's momentum. For those looking to catch breakout assets within the meme space, the Barbell Index provides an edge, offering both calculated risk and the chance for significant returns, especially as niche meme coins gain traction.


Cryptonary's take

With all major meme coins now listed on Coinbase—previously only limited to three—this marks a pivotal shift for the sector, bringing meme coins into the mainstream spotlight like never before. While the general Meme Coin Index reflects this sector-wide traction, the Barbell Meme Index offers a more strategic play.

With WIF included here as well, it benefits directly from Coinbase's spotlight. SPX, currently discounted, presents a compelling opportunity for accumulation, while WIF's explosive rally and Popcat's poised technical setup hint at strong short-term potential. In short, the Barbell Index not only rides the momentum of major listings but also offers targeted exposure to high-growth assets within this wave.


Ethereum Meme coin index vs. Solana Meme coin index

Ethereum Meme coin index

The Ethereum Meme Coin Index has seen a strong performance, driven by the recent Coinbase listing of Pepe, which boosted the index to 0.0000385 with solid support at 0.0000375. Ethereum-based meme coins like Shiba Inu, Pepe, and Floki have shown resilience. Since its November bottom, the index has risen over 100%, primarily fueled by increased visibility and capital inflows from both new and seasoned investors.

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Ethereum's meme coin ecosystem is undoubtedly mature, benefiting from the network's liquidity and broader institutional acceptance. However, this maturity also brings some limitations in terms of transaction costs, potentially hampering the growth of newer, high-velocity assets.

While Ethereum memecoins continue to attract mainstream interest, the ecosystem might face competition from alternatives that offer faster transaction speeds and lower costs, particularly as the meme coin market grows in diversity and demand.

Solana Meme coin index

On the other hand, the Solana Meme Coin Index has captured attention with its rapid rise, trading at 1.72 after a 135% increase in the past two weeks. With Wif and Popcat leading the charge, Solana's low fees and quick transaction speeds provide an ideal ecosystem for meme coins that rely on high-frequency trading and lower-cost transactions.

Breaking past its all-time high of 1.78 before consolidating, the index shows resilience, with strong support at 1.53, offering a foundation for future rallies. This growth, driven by Solana's infrastructure advantages, underscores the network's suitability for high-momentum meme assets.

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Comparatively, the Solana Meme Coin Index appears well-positioned to compete against Ethereum in the meme coin space, especially for investors focused on high-growth assets. With lower barriers to entry and greater agility, Solana-based meme coins are set to capture the interest of retail investors who prioritise speed and accessibility.

As the Solana ecosystem matures, it could very well outperform Ethereum in the meme coin market, capitalising on its unique strengths to attract both retail traders and meme coin enthusiasts alike.


Cryptonary's take

Ethereum's meme coin ecosystem thrives on robust liquidity and broad mainstream appeal, with assets like Pepe and Shiba Inu generating significant trading volumes. However, Solana's high efficiency and low transaction costs present a compelling alternative, especially suited for high-velocity trading and promising new projects like WIF and Popcat.

As meme coins attract a wider investor base, Solana's scalability gives it the potential to outperform Ethereum in the meme coin space, positioning it as a unique platform that supports rapid growth and accessibility, ideal for today's fast-moving meme assets.


Barbell portfolio analysis

Our Barbell Portfolio includes three key meme coins: Dogwifhat, SPX6900, and Popcat. To evaluate their potential as beta plays within their respective ecosystems, we're analysing each coin in comparison to its Layer 1 base currency. Specifically, we'll examine the WIF/SOL chart, SPX/ETH chart, and POPCAT/SOL chart to understand how these meme coins are performing relative to Solana and Ethereum. This approach gives us a clear picture of their strength and potential outperformance within their native environments.

WIF/SOL chart analysis

The WIF/SOL chart presents an optimistic outlook, indicating that WIF could outperform Solana's growth trajectory as a high-beta player. Since peaking at 0.025 in late March 2024, WIF entered a prolonged downtrend, retracing about 62% to a low of 0.0091 in early August. The recent Coinbase listing, however, has spurred a breakout from this downtrend. WIF initially cleared short-term resistance at 0.0159, pulled back to the 200 EMA on the daily timeframe, and bounced off a key demand zone established during consolidation. These support levels have held well, providing a springboard for the recent rally.

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In the past week, WIF's performance has been impressive, up 100% relative to Solana and trading at 0.0187 with a local high of 0.022. Momentum suggests that WIF is heading toward 0.024. The recent breakout from the long-standing downtrend indicates a shift in sentiment, and with Solana itself showing strength, WIF is well-positioned to potentially enter a parabolic phase. As long as key support levels hold, WIF offers an appealing opportunity for those looking to capitalise on Solana's meme coin ecosystem with a higher beta.

SPX/ETH chart analysis

The SPX/ETH pairing reveals a compelling setup in the 4-hour timeframe, ideal for capturing the coin's volatile, sharp movements that are challenging to track on the daily chart. After its spectacular rally to 0.0004 on October 13, SPX saw a 58% retracement, reaching a recent low of 0.000168 on November 14. This drop to key support levels has drawn interest, as SPX currently stabilizes around 0.000186, a crucial floor that could set the stage for a rebound.

SPX is approaching a descending trendline, which has defined its downtrend since November 6. This trendline serves as a strong technical resistance and, if broken, could signal a breakout that would attract fresh buying interest. An upside move from here has 0.00026 as the immediate resistance target, with the potential to reach 0.00037 if momentum builds, capitalizing on the current high-energy meme coin market.

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The recent accumulation phase hints at the possibility of SPX being discounted, especially as it trades near historically strong support levels with increasing demand. For traders, this could represent an optimal entry point to capture potential gains if SPX confirms a breakout above the trendline. The technical structure is promising, as support levels have proven resilient even in a volatile market environment.

Furthermore, with meme coins gaining mainstream recognition and trading volumes surging, SPX is poised to benefit from the broader interest in high-beta assets within the Ethereum ecosystem. If SPX can reclaim its former highs, it could see substantial appreciation, making this a potential turning point for both new and experienced investors looking to capitalize on the meme coin wave.

POPCAT/SOL chart analysis

Popcat's relative performance against Solana has also been robust, marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows in a clear uptrend. Since August, Popcat has maintained this trend, recently experiencing a brief breakdown below its trendline due to short-term manipulation. After dipping into a daily demand zone between 0.0068 and 0.0057, PopCat quickly reclaimed its trendline, confirming buying interest at lower levels.

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The recovery saw Popcat bounce back towards a resistance level of 0.0099, approaching its October high of 0.0105. Since then, Popcat has consolidated, forming a base that hints at another potential breakout. If Popcat can clear the 0.0099 resistance, it could be poised for a stronger rally. The consistent trendline and strong support in the demand zone position Popcat favourably within the Solana ecosystem, giving holders confidence in its potential for further gains.


Cryptonary's take

The Barbell Portfolio offers strategic diversification across both the Solana and Ethereum chains, blending high-growth assets from each ecosystem to capture the broad momentum in meme coins. By adding SPX, the portfolio goes beyond traditional "animal meme" coins like WIF and Popcat, introducing a unique, non-animal meme asset to broaden exposure within the sector.

This thoughtful mix enhances the portfolio's resilience, with Wif benefiting from its recent Coinbase listing, which underscores Solana-based meme coins' growing legitimacy. This listing paves the way for other Solana meme coins, positioning Popcat as a strong contender for future listings, given its popularity as the top cat on Solana.

SPX, meanwhile, represents a valuable addition with distinct long-term potential, especially as it approaches the billion-dollar market cap threshold that could attract even broader market interest. Positioned within Ethereum's robust ecosystem, SPX diversifies the portfolio by tapping into a different narrative from WIF and Popcat, setting the stage for sustained growth. Altogether, this balanced exposure to both "animal" and "non-animal" meme coins on leading chains gives the Barbell Portfolio a unique edge, aligning with current market trends while building in opportunities for breakout gains as meme coins evolve into a mainstream asset class.


Final outlook

The recent surge in meme coins reveals a market that's far more than just social media hype; it's a sector driven by real momentum, listing accessibility, and increasingly strategic plays. Coinbase listings have elevated the meme coin space, bringing these assets into a new phase of growth and legitimacy.

This newfound acceptance suggests that meme coins, while volatile, are moving toward stability and maturity, attracting a range of investors from retail traders to institutions looking to capitalise on this unique asset class. It's a powerful reminder that the meme sector isn't just a trend-it's becoming an integral part of the broader crypto landscape.

In terms of strategy, out of the barbell picks, SPX offers a particularly promising accumulation opportunity positioned within a high-energy meme coin super cycle. Accumulating now could prove advantageous as these coins continue to gain traction.

Ultimately, the "Battle of Memes" is about capturing both the excitement and potential within this space, aligning short-term plays with long-term value strategies. With each report, we're learning how to better navigate and capture value in this explosive sector, equipping ourselves with insights for every stage of the meme coin cycle. The journey is just beginning, and with the right moves, the rewards could be exceptional.

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