General market overview

Welcome back to Battle of the Majors! It's been a month since our last report, and at that time, the market entered a crucial phase. As BTC hovers near key resistance zones and altcoins, particularly Solana, continue to show strength, we are entering what could be the next big movement in the bull cycle.

We've got a lot to cover, so let's dive in.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Total cryptocurrency market capitalization ($TOTAL)

Current state: In the last report, we analysed the total market cap around the $2.01 trillion zone, predicting two potential scenarios: price either holding this support or a liquidation event. As anticipated, the market went through a strong liquidation event, breaking below the 0.5 fib zone and reaching the bottom of the channel. This shakeout was healthy for the market, removing leveraged positions and clearing the way for a fresh push.

Key observations

• Support: The $1.9 trillion level, as expected, provided strong support and triggered a reversal. Buying pressure from this zone helped initiate a rally back toward the upper channel.
• Current status: The total market cap now stands at $2.21 trillion. This represents a solid recovery and places the market in a strong position to push higher. If BTC breaks through the current supply zone, we can expect the overall market to rally towards the upper fib resistance levels.
• Price projection: We anticipate the total market cap to grow to $3 trillion in the coming months, a 35% increase that would bring the market back to previous all-time highs. As BTC and major altcoins like Solana continue to strengthen, this target is well within reach.

Solana's role in the market

At present, Solana holds a 3.23% dominance within the crypto market. With Solana's upward momentum continuing, we expect its dominance to reach 4% in the coming months, elevating its market capitalization to $140 billion. With a total supply considered, this would result in a price of approximately $256 per SOL.

Conclusion

The total market cap has moved back into a bullish structure, supported by strong buying pressure at key levels. With a target of $3 trillion on the horizon, Solana is positioned to play a key role in the market's growth. As BTC nears a crucial breakout point, the next leg of the bull market is shaping up to be one of the most significant yet.

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ETH/BTC

Current state: In our previous report, ETH/BTC was caught in a choppy sideways range, with price action hovering around the 0.046 resistance. We mentioned that a break above this level would be a signal for a reversal, but at the time, a reversal seemed unlikely. Since then, ETH/BTC has moved lower, finding strong support at a major level marked by the grey box.

Key observations

• Support: The grey support zone has proven to be a solid foundation for ETH/BTC, helping to stabilise the pair. Price has adhered to this level, showing strength after the recent bottoming-out process.
• Resistance: The 0.046 resistance remains the key level to watch. ETH/BTC will need to reclaim this level to confirm a reversal and signal further strength in Ethereum.
• Potential scenario: With the pair now showing signs of recovery from its support, we can expect a move back toward the 0.046 level in the coming weeks. A successful break above this resistance could lead to ETH/BTC regaining strength, with more capital flowing into Ethereum and potentially kick-starting a broader altcoin rally.

Conclusion

ETH/BTC appears to have found a bottom at the grey support zone, and a move toward the 0.046 resistance is on the horizon. The pair is looking stronger than before, and a breakout could lead to a shift in market dynamics, driving Ethereum's outperformance.

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SOL/BTC

Current state: We highlighted how SOL was showing remarkable strength against BTC, and it has continued to perform well. A new trendline has formed, marked by an orange dotted line, providing strong support for SOL as it consolidates. Since then, price action has respected this accumulation zone, with SOL breaking above the trendline and approaching key resistance levels.

Key observations

• Support: The orange trendline is a reliable support level, showing that SOL is in a strong accumulation phase. This area has been crucial in keeping SOL in a bullish structure as it consolidates before its next move.
• Resistance: Currently, SOL/BTC is facing resistance at the 0.00239 zone. This is a key level that needs to be broken for SOL to continue its upward momentum and outperform BTC further.
• Market dynamics: With more capital flowing into Solana, the chances of breaking above this resistance are increasing. A break in the 0.00239 resistance could signal the beginning of a significant rally for SOL against BTC, particularly as the market looks for altcoins to take the lead.

Conclusion

SOL/BTC remains in a solid position, having respected the orange trendline and consolidated above key support levels. With the pair now facing resistance at 0.002, we are watching for a breakout that could propel SOL into its next major bullish phase. Solana continues to assert itself as one of the strongest altcoins, showing clear signs of strength against BTC.

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SOL/ETH

Current state: SOL/ETH continues to show strength, holding above the 2021 highs with price action respecting the 0.0533 dotted white line as support. Price has been trading sideways for some time but remains in a bullish structure. As we look toward the coming months, the potential for Solana to break higher against Ethereum is becoming increasingly apparent.

Key observations

1. Support: The 0.0533 level has acted as a strong base, with prices repeatedly bouncing from this zone. The inclusion of the 20 EMA as an indicator highlights the consistency of higher lows, reinforcing the idea that Solana's bullish trend is well intact.
2. Resistance: Price is primed to test upper resistance zones soon. Once it breaks above the current range, we anticipate SOL/ETH will move towards higher targets, driven by increased capital flow into Solana.

Price Projection

• SOL/ETH ratio: Currently, the SOL/ETH ratio stands at approximately 0.057, near its previous all-time highs. We expect Solana to outperform Ethereum in the coming months, targeting a ratio of 0.075.
• ETH performance: Assuming ETH reaches $3,250 by Q4 2024 and SOL achieves a SOL/ETH ratio of 0.075, we estimate Solana's price to be around $244 per SOL.

Conclusion

SOL/ETH remains in a strong upward consolidation phase, with the potential to break higher in the coming months. The chart indicates a clear trend of higher lows, and as Solana gains more market share, it is well-positioned to outperform Ethereum. A breakout would likely lead to SOL reaching the projected price range of $244 - $256 per SOL.

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BTC dominance (BTC.D)

Current state: BTC dominance continues to remain inside the rising wedge we've been tracking for several months. Price action has been squeezing within the wedge, with BTC dominance approaching the upper resistance zone near 60%. The market is reaching a critical moment where BTC dominance is likely to make a decisive move.

Key observations

• Resistance: BTC dominance is nearing the top of the wedge, with the 60% resistance zone serving as a major level. Once dominance reaches this point, we could see a sharp rejection, which would likely lead to a significant inflow of capital into altcoins.
• Potential scenario: While BTC dominance may spike one last time toward the upper resistance, the overall structure of the wedge suggests an impending breakdown. When this occurs, we expect altcoins, including SOL and ETH, to begin outperforming BTC as money rotates out of Bitcoin and into the altcoin market.
• Market dynamics: This final stretch of BTC dominance within the wedge signals that the market is on the verge of a shift. A breakdown in BTC dominance would likely coincide with the start of a broader altcoin rally, marking the next phase of the bull cycle.

Conclusion

BTC dominance is at a critical point as it nears the apex of its rising wedge. A spike towards the 60% resistance level is likely, but a breakdown is expected to follow. This will likely mark the beginning of a capital rotation into altcoins, signalling the start of the next major altcoin rally.

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SOL dominance (SOL.D)

Current state: SOL dominance continues its upward trend, making higher highs and higher lows. Solana has been steadily consolidating upwards, moving towards its next key resistance level. With the broader market nearing a turning point, SOL is positioned to capture an even larger share of the total crypto market.

Key observations

• Support: The 200 EMA continues to act as a strong support on the downside, providing a solid base for Solana's growing dominance in the market. This level has been repeatedly tested and held, reinforcing Solana's bullish structure.
• Resistance: SOL dominance is currently approaching the 3.66% resistance level, a key zone that could trigger a breakout if breached. With the market showing signs of strength, Solana is well-positioned to push through this level and continue its ascent.
• Market dynamics: As Solana continues to outperform both BTC and ETH, its dominance within the crypto market is increasing. We anticipate that SOL dominance could reach 4% in the coming months as the bullish consolidation phase unfolds.

Conclusion

SOL dominance remains in a strong upward consolidation phase, with higher highs and higher lows driving the trend. The 3.66% resistance level is the next key target, and a breakout from this zone could see Solana dominate up to 4% of the total market cap. Solana's continued outperformance highlights its potential to lead the next phase of the market cycle.

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Confluence and correlation

The analysis across the majors reveals several significant patterns and correlations, painting a clearer picture of the market's current trajectory:

• Total market cap and BTC dominance: As the total market cap holds strong above $2.21 trillion, BTC dominance is squeezing into the final stages of its rising wedge. We're approaching a critical moment where BTC dominance could make one last push toward 60%, but the structure suggests an imminent breakdown. This signals a potential shift in market dynamics, with money flowing from BTC into altcoins once the dominance breaks down.
• ETH/BTC and SOL/ETH: Both pairs are showing signs of strength after periods of consolidation. ETH/BTC has found solid support, while SOL/ETH continues to trade above its 2021 highs, highlighting Solana's outperformance against Ethereum. Once BTC dominance begins to fall, we expect both ETH and SOL to start absorbing more capital, with Solana positioned to lead the charge.
• SOL/BTC and SOL dominance: Solana's strength across multiple pairs is undeniable. SOL/BTC remains in a bullish consolidation phase, holding its trendline support, while SOL dominance continues to climb. These signals reinforce Solana's potential to capture a larger share of the crypto market, especially as the broader market prepares for its next leg up. The charts suggest that SOL could dominate up to 4% of the market in the coming months.

Together, these assets are aligning for what looks like a market-shifting moment. BTC dominance is nearing a critical breakdown, which will pave the way for altcoins-especially Solana-to outperform. As the market readies itself for a potential breakout, all indicators point to Solana being a key leader in the next phase of the cycle.

Cryptonary's take

It's been a long time, but the market is finally primed for the next major move. BTC dominance is squeezing into the apex of its wedge, and while a final spike may occur, the impending breakdown will shift the spotlight to altcoins. This is where the real excitement begins.

Solana has been showing strength across the board-whether against BTC or ETH or in its dominance over the total market. We've said it before, and we'll say it again: Solana is poised to outperform. The momentum is building, and the charts are aligning. With Solana's dominance climbing and key support levels holding strong, the next few months are shaping up to be a breakout period.

The market has never been more thrilling, and as always, Cryptonary is here, keeping a close eye on every move. Stay strategic, stay informed, and get ready for what's coming next because this bull cycle is just heating up!