Bitcoin battles to hold $80K support
Bitcoin struggles to reclaim resistance as sentiment weakens, while funding rates signal reduced risk appetite. As BTC searches for support, will a relief bounce emerge, or is more downside ahead? Let’s dive into the latest price action.
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
BTC:
- Open Interest has pulled back substantially over the last 10 days. 10 days ago, OI was at 644k BTC. Following the full retrace of the move on March 3rd, OI came down to 541k BTC. This whip-sawed traders on both sides and this saw a lot of realised loss-taking.
- Funding Rates are now quite subdued, suggesting that there isn't the appetite to take large leverage bets at the moment.
- In the below, we can see how subdued Funding Rates are today, in comparison back to November when the market was overheated post-Trump win.
Technical analysis
- On Thursday, BTC rejected into the horizontal resistance at $91,700, losing the price range that had been supporting BTC, and since then, the price has retraced $10,000.
- Zoomed out, the price remains in an overall downtrend, along with the RSI.
- The RSI has now put in a bullish divergence though (a lower low in price, and a higher low on the oscillator), whilst the RSI is now also creeping above its moving average. This may help to generate a small relief rally.
- So far, the rice has found support in the last $ 70k and the $80,000 level.
- It's hard to identify a clean local resistance at the moment, although if we had to suggest, we'd say it's the $86,000 to $87,000 zone that can be that next local resistance.
- The major overhead resistance is at $91,700. That's the level that'll need to be reclaimed in order to see a bullish reversal.
- Next Support: $80,000
- Next Resistance: $86,000
- Direction: Neutral
- Upside Target: $86,000
- Downside Target: $75,000
Cryptonary's take
We see on the timelines (Twitter etc) that sentiment is more bearish despite there still being the dip buyers out there. Price likely bottoms when the 'dip buyers' are no more. However, it is possible that we can get a small relief rally potentially in the immediate term just simply more as a slight mean reversion move.We're also looking at the S&P and the Nasdaq, both of which are close to oversold and are likely to see a small bounce in the short also. The tricky part to this is that it's hard to know if we go lower before a relief bounce.
Therefore, the way to play this is to look for Shorts into meaningful relief bounces. That's how we're looking to play the short term. We still expect over the coming weeks for BTC to move into the low $70k's at least.
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