Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
BTC:
- BTC's Open Interest has crept up slightly, but it still remains quite a way from the highs we saw in mid-December.
- The Funding Rate is at 0.01%. So it's flat, with an even balance between Longs and Shorts.
- This is a more healthy leverage environment. There aren't signs of froth, but there also remains good activity.
Technical analysis
- BTC has broken out of the downtrend line, and the price has rejected roughly into the prior price all-time highs.
- But, when the price pulled back to retest key levels, it bounced nicely off of the horizontal support of $98,900, the old horizontal resistance. Price has also used the psychological level of $100k as support.
- The major resistance to the price being cleared above is $108k.
- The local resistance is at $105k
- If the price were to break down below $98,900, there are quite a few supports in the $ 90k range. The first being at $95,700 and then $91,500.
- BTC has broken out of its downtrend on the RSI, and it has come back, retested it, and moved higher. Alongside this, it's also above its moving average. Positive.
- Next Support: $100,000
- Next Resistance: $108,000
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $108,000 (then $112k)
- Downside Target: $98,900
Cryptonary's take
BTC looks very positive here, and considering Trump didn't mention it, now that we have seen any pro-Crypto Executive Orders (as of yet), BTC has done very well to hold up at the $103k area. For now, let BTC show you its next move, either a breakout of the highs or a breakdown. The rest of the market feels a tad flat, and BTC, holding at the price it's at, seems to be what's holding the rest of the market up for now.My (Tom) personal feeling is that I'm just not sure here. I feel like BTC can come down a bit, almost a sell the news now, and we're not sure where the next major catalyst is. But at the same time, we're expecting a positive year, and in the short term, Trump can issue an Executive Order, and everything turns around. Tricky spot here. Best off just being passive and seeing how this week and price action unfolds.
I'm not scared/worried here, so let's definitely clarify that. I'd just rather get some clarity before making my mind up on positioning. But overall, BTC has held up well, considering no Executive Orders have come (yet).
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