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Market Direction

Bitcoin eyes $88K breakout

Updated: Mar 28, 2025
Published: Mar 24, 2025
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As Bitcoin grinds higher, testing critical resistance, risk assets follow the rally. BTC's relief move toward $88K-$91K is unfolding-let's break down what's next for major levels and the broader crypto market.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

BTC

Market metrics:
  • BTC's Open Interest is up substantially over the last 3-4 days, indicating that this move up has been somewhat driven by leverage.
  • BTC's Funding Rate has stayed relatively tight around the 0.00% level, and it has been fluctuating between slightly positive and slightly negative. This just indicates that traders are flip-flopping between Longs and Shorts without much conviction which is normal during choppy market periods.
BTC's Open Interest (by number of coins): Bitcoin Open Interest chart showing substantial increase over the last 3-4 days Bitcoin Open Interest has increased significantly, indicating a leverage-driven movement

Technical analysis

  • After putting in two back-to-back bullish divergences, BTC has begun moving higher along with the stock indices as we expected it would.
  • We have the local horizontal resistance at $87,000 (up from $86,300, $87,000 seems like the more clear level). We'll now be seeing if BTC can break out above it.
  • The main horizontal resistance is at $91,700. We don't expect that level to be breached in the short term.
  • To the downside, the local support is in the $82k's, with the major horizontal support at $78,700.
  • BTC is potentially breaking out of it's RSI downtrend, which is positive. However, the price will put in a hidden bearish divergence (lower high in price, higher high on the oscillator).
Bitcoin price chart showing potential relief rally with $91,700 resistance level marked Bitcoin technical analysis showing projected movement into the $88-89K region BTC 1D Timeframe - Key Levels:
  • Next Support: $85,200
  • Next Resistance: $91,700
  • Direction: Neutral/Bullish
  • Upside Target: $90,000
  • Downside Target: $82,000

Cryptonary's take

BTC is moving up here in what we still expect is a relief rally for Bitcoin and other risk assets. As planned, BTC is moving into our Short box between $86,300 and $91,700, which is where we're looking for Shorts. So, we'll essentially be filling Short orders all the way up, and as price goes higher into say $88k, $89k, $90k, then we'll be adding more size to the Short. What would invalidate our thesis would be a clear break of two key levels: $91,700 and $95,500. $95,500, and we'd really have to consider that we're wrong and, therefore, why we're wrong. But for now, in the short-term, we do see price grinding up into the $88k, to $89k region, but we do expect this to just be a relief rally and for the market to then go lower.

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