Bitcoin eyes $88K breakout

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

BTC

Market metrics:

• BTC's Open Interest is up substantially over the last 3-4 days, indicating that this move up has been somewhat driven by leverage.
• BTC's Funding Rate has stayed relatively tight around the 0.00% level, and it has been fluctuating between slightly positive and slightly negative. This just indicates that traders are flip-flopping between Longs and Shorts without much conviction which is normal during choppy market periods.

BTC's Open Interest (by number of coins): Bitcoin Open Interest has increased significantly, indicating a leverage-driven movement

Technical analysis

• After putting in two back-to-back bullish divergences, BTC has begun moving higher along with the stock indices as we expected it would.
• We have the local horizontal resistance at $87,000 (up from $86,300, $87,000 seems like the more clear level). We'll now be seeing if BTC can break out above it.
• The main horizontal resistance is at $91,700. We don't expect that level to be breached in the short term.
• To the downside, the local support is in the $82k's, with the major horizontal support at $78,700.
• BTC is potentially breaking out of it's RSI downtrend, which is positive. However, the price will put in a hidden bearish divergence (lower high in price, higher high on the oscillator).

Bitcoin technical analysis showing projected movement into the $88-89K region BTC 1D Timeframe - Key Levels:

• Next Support: $85,200
• Next Resistance: $91,700
• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Upside Target: $90,000
• Downside Target: $82,000

Cryptonary's take

BTC is moving up here in what we still expect is a relief rally for Bitcoin and other risk assets. As planned, BTC is moving into our Short box between $86,300 and $91,700, which is where we're looking for Shorts. So, we'll essentially be filling Short orders all the way up, and as price goes higher into say $88k, $89k, $90k, then we'll be adding more size to the Short. What would invalidate our thesis would be a clear break of two key levels: $91,700 and $95,500. $95,500, and we'd really have to consider that we're wrong and, therefore, why we're wrong. But for now, in the short-term, we do see price grinding up into the $88k, to $89k region, but we do expect this to just be a relief rally and for the market to then go lower.