Bitcoin faces critical support test after rally

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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BTC:

• BTC's Open Interest has continued its slight downtrend, this is in spite of the large move up yesterday in price.
• This suggests that yesterday's move up in price was a spot-driven move rather than a perps-driven one.
• Funding Rates have also remained relatively flat, with Shorts and Longs being mostly evenly balanced.

BTC open interest (by number of coins):

Technical analysis

• At the back end of last week, price moved in to the Yellow box, printed it's lowest oversold reading since August 2023, and price swiftly bounced.
• Price has now moved into the underside of the horizontal resistance at $95,700, and so far, it looks as if it's rejecting. Today's candle close will be an important assessment of this.
• BTC is now fighting at the major horizontal level of $91,700. This may become new support if price can hold. If price falls below it and remains below it (uses it as resistance), expect $80k again.
• The RSI has bounced out of extreme oversold territory, but remains in it's downtrend. It has now put in a hidden bearish divergence (higher high on the oscillator, lower high in price).

• Next Support: $91,700
• Next Resistance: $95,600
• Direction: Bearish
• Upside Target: $95,600 (maybe $98,900)
• Downside Target: $91,700 (then $87,000)

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Cryptonary's take:

The move yesterday was really extreme, and you can get that kind of move when confidence/sentiment is on the floor. The good news is then overpriced as all those that have sold out rush to buy back in.

For now, though, this move remains a move into high timeframe resistance, where there's a strong potential we can see a lower high put-in and price move lower in the coming month. The Crypto audience will now expect big announcements at the Summit this week. So, unless the move is ultra bullish (outright buying of coins) then expect it to be a 'sell the news event'.

The key level to watch in the short-term is $91,700. If that level is lost, and news out of the Summit isn't super bullish, then we expect lower prices. PS - the CME gap that was created is now down to $81k. It's common for gaps to be filled.