Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
BTC:
- BTC's funding rate has fluctuated between slightly positive and slightly negative, as we can see below. This indicates a lack of conviction amongst traders, who are flip-flopping between Longing and Shorting.
- BTC's Open Interest increased substantially from the lows, up approximately 20%. This was leverage traders chasing the price higher as it moved into the $87k to $88k area. Although this wasn't matched by strong Spot buying, hence we've seen the move higher be relatively weak and short-lived.
Technical analysis
- BTC has seemingly fallen into the 'Short Box' we identified between $86,300 to $91,700.
- Price rejected into the main downtrend line (red line).
- Price has now pulled back to the local support of $85,000, although the major horizontal support is at $78k.
- To the upside, $87,200 is a key local horizontal level for price to reclaim and hold above. If price can do this, then $91,000 to $91,700 is a potential target, and we'd reassess at that point. However, we don't see this happening in the short term.
- The RSI downtrend line has seen a breakout with the RSI now sitting on top of its moving average and in middle territory. This could help the $85,000 area be a local support.
- Next Support: $85,000
- Next Resistance: $88,500
- Direction: Bearish
- Upside Target: $88,500
- Downside Target: $82,000
Cryptonary's take
BTC has moved into our 'Short Box' that we had identified a number of weeks ago. We had to be patient in letting the price grind up to the box and to fill Short orders, which have now filled between $86,300 and $88,600.We are of the view that the recent move up has just been a small relief rally and not much more than that. We expect BTC to move down to retest $82k as a minimum target over the next week or two. However, we see the possibility of a retest of $78k as somewhat likely as well.
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