Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
- BTC's Open Interest (by number of coins), has moved up slightly, but not to alarming levels, which would suggest too much leverage has built up.
- BTC's Funding Rate has also returned to more positive territory, whereas last week, Funding was negative for significant periods, suggesting that traders were betting on further downside. But, we know when Funding is negative for too long, that likely suggests a reversal is imminent (upside for price).
BTC's open interest (by number of coins):
Technical analysis
- Bitcoin is attempting to breakout of its downtrend line, and price is now building support on top of the downtrend line, to then potentially put in a move higher over this week.
- $82,000 is the local support, with $88,000 as the local resistance. However, in terms of resistance, it's more of a zone, and it's tricky to find clear levels here.
- In terms of the major horizontal resistance, the clear level is $91,700. A reclaim of this level would be the bullish reversal for then a retest of $100k and the all-time highs. However, in the short term, we don't expect $91,700 to be retested, let alone reclaimed.
- The RSI has cleanly broken out of its downtrend, and it's also above its moving average. It also still remains in the middle territory, suggesting that there may be some room to the upside here.
- Next Support: $82,000
- Next Resistance: $88,000
- Direction: Bullish/Neutral
- Upside Target: $88,000
- Downside Target: $78,000
Cryptonary's take
In the short-term, it's possible this move higher can continue, and if it does, we would expect the stopping zone to be between $88,000 and $89,000. If price were to push on to $90,000 to $91,700, we may even look for Shorts again in that range, as that might mean price has got too stretched to the upside in the short-term.
We are still expecting this to just be a relief rally, and for the next few months to be choppy. Therefore, we'll look to take advantage of this choppiness, and we'll be looking to rebuild/re-add to long-term Spot bags, should prices retest the lows, and potentially make new lows. For BTC, that longer-term accumulation zone is between $63,400 and $75,500.