Market Direction

Bitcoin stalls below $107,000 ahead of FOMC

Published: Jan 28, 2025

Bitcoin remains range-bound between $98,900 support and $107,000 resistance, with traders awaiting a breakout. Institutional adoption strengthens BTC, but FOMC uncertainty keeps price action choppy. The market direction remains undecided.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

BTC's Open Interest has continued its decline over the past few days, meaning that there's less of a leverage build-up.
BTC's Funding Rate is at 0.01%, indicating there's an even balance between Longs and Shorts.
Overall, this is a healthier leverage market, but that also doesn't mean that the rice has to go up because of it.

BTC open interest (by number of coins): 1. Chart displaying Bitcoin futures open interest with BTC price trend, showing increasing activity and volatility over time.

1. Chart displaying Bitcoin futures open interest with BTC price trend, showing increasing activity and volatility over time.

Technical analysis

BTC rejected into the main horizontal resistance of $107,000. This was following the announcement of 'exploring a stockpile' and not a mention of a 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve'.
Price formed a bullish pennant but then broke down from that pennant off the back of the DeepSeek news yesterday.
However, the price bounced strongly from the horizontal support of $98,900, and the downtrend line was used as support.
Price is currently just choppy and range-bound between the horizontal support of $98,900 and the horizontal resistance of $107,000.
The RSI is in the middle territory, and for now, the only negative here is that it's below its moving average. However, that isn't something we'd get too caught up with.

2. Bitcoin price chart with support and resistance levels, RSI analysis, and potential downside target highlighted in yellow.

Next Support: $98,900
Next Resistance: $107,000
Direction: Neutral
Upside Target: $107,000
Downside Target: $95,700

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Cryptonary's take

Considering what Alts, Meme's, and TradFi markets have done over the last few days to a week, Bitcoin has held up really impressively. This is probably due to the fact there is this Institutional adoption happening, especially now that SAB21 has been overturned.

But in the short-term, it's possible BTC price is still a tad ahead of its ski's post-Trump excitement. We're also going into an FOMC tomorrow, and the expectation is that Powell will continue in a hawkish tone.

Ultimately for now, we need to see BTC show us the direction, with either a breakout or a breakdown. There's an edge really in this choppy, range-bound price action, and in this situation, it's best to sit tight and let the market show you its hand first before you then act on that. We wouldn't be surprised if the price remained range-bound for more time as well.