For starters, the pullback has already begun - but is this just a pause before the next leg up?
Brace for impact! We expect another slight pullback or consolidation of prices for a few weeks to reset some of the overheated on-chain metrics.
That said, we are still in a wider bull market, so we’re not looking to sell any Spot bags,
Instead, we're on standby for opportunities to add to our positions on pullbacks.
Exciting times are around the corner.
TLDR
- We explore Bitcoin’s volatility, which has funding rates resetting and leverage being flushed out. Can BTC hold the $65,800 level, or will it retrace further?
- Shifting over to Ethereum, we dive into whether the $4,000 resistance will finally be broken after ETH's meteoric rise from $2,200.
- Solana's mechanics are setting up an epic short-squeeze opportunity. With soaring open interest and balanced funding, the slightest spark could ignite an explosive rally that leaves the shorts in the red.
- From the high-flyers to the meme tokens. PYTH and SHDW also provide potentially exciting opportunities if the market cooperates with an ideal pullback entry.
- We analyse Rune's path forward after rejection at $11 and POPCAT’s stomach-churning volatility that would make even seasoned traders queasy.
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. "One Glance" by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. These are not signals, and they are not financial advice.
BTC
- Following the volatility over the last five days or so, the Funding Rate had pulled back from its very high/overheated level. This also saw a pullback in the Open Interest (leverage) from $35.5b down to $33.3b—a 5% or so decrease.
- Funding has picked up again, having reset, but it's around the 0.03% level, which is relatively normal for a bullish period.
Technical analysis
- In the last three weeks, BTC has rallied from $52k to $73k, so we could expect to see a few weeks of pullback or at least consolidation before breaking out higher sometime in April.
- Price has fallen below the all-time high of the 2021 cycle at $69k (marked by the red horizontal resistance line), and now price is finding the underside of $69k as new local resistance.
- When looking at the Kelten Channel, $65,800 is the middle level and should act as local support, which it has done. The bottom of the channel is at $58,100, but we expect this to continue increasing. We see the Yellow box at $59,200 to $60,700 as major support if price can even get as low as that.
- The RSI on the Daily has been reset from the overbought territory. However, the 3D and the Weekly both remain heavily overbought. It's possible that we could see a resetting in these timeframes over the coming weeks.
Cryptonary's take
The last few weeks have seen a big move up for BTC, breaking all-time highs pre-halving, which we haven't seen in prior cycles.Alongside this, some of the on-chain metrics suggest we may see a few weeks of risk-off or at least consolidation for prices. These metrics are in overheated territory, indicating a pullback may be on the near-term horizon.
But, the long-term cycle still suggests we're relatively early in the euphoric phase of this bull market. We have technically seen a 10% pullback from the highs at $73,600 down to $64,700. This is somewhat of a shallow pullback, particularly in comparison to past euphoria stages of past bull cycles. If the pullback continues, we expect $60k to be the absolute bottom.
For now, we're not looking to sell our Spot bags, but we're also not looking to add them here. We suggest continuing to build USDT stockpiles and putting them to work in certain altcoins if BTC pulls back to the low $60k area.
For now, we continue holding our Spot bags, and we’re not looking to sell; we are just remaining patient.
ETH
- Like BTC, ETH's Funding Rate also substantially reset on the price pullback, although the Open Interest (amount of leverage) only pulled back a few percentage points.
- ETH's Funding Rate is now at 0.0270%, which is relatively normal and not overheated when in a bull market.
- In the past week, the mechanics for ETH have reset, clearing out some of the leverage froth that was there.
Technical analysis
- We had mentioned previously that the horizontal resistance at $3,967 and the $4,000 psychological level may prove a sticking point for ETH, which it has so far been.
- ETH rallied from $2,200 to $4,000 in approximately six weeks with very few pullbacks, so a slight pullback here is fine and actually healthy for price action going forward.
- ETH has been rejected from the top of its Kelten Channel and has now found some initial support in the middle of this channel.
- The bottom of the Kelten Channel is at $3,170, with the Yellow Box between $2,980 and $3,090. We can see a situation where the bottom of the Kelten Channel is tested, but we struggle to see the Yellow box being filled.
- The RSI has reset substantially on the Daily, with the 3D and the Weekly now close to being back below overbought territory. This was needed for ETH, considering the move of the last six weeks.
Cryptonary's take
ETH has already made a relatively substantial pullback here, so we struggle to see it pulling back all the way to the Yellow box. Of course, if it did, we'd be aggressive buyers.Price is currently at a horizontal support of $3,525, so it may be the case that the pullback we've seen is all we'll get. But if BTC does retest just shy of $65k, then we could possibly see ETH touching the $3,100 to $3,300 area. Again, if ETH were to pull back to this level, we'd be aggressive buyers.
For now, the game plan remains the same as that of BTC. We're holding Spot bags and not looking to sell. If ETH were to pull back to the $3,000 to $3,300 range, we'd be aggressive buyers here and take that opportunity (if it comes) to add to our Spot bags.
SOL
- The mechanics’ setup is really interesting for SOL. Open Interest is at a cycle high, having increased by 10% in just the last three days. This is a really large increase and shows that there is a lot of leverage built up here.
- However, the Funding Rate is at 0.0120%, so there is a bias to be long, but the positioning is very balanced, indicating that many shorts are open here.
- My (Tom) feeling is that we see a slight market-wide pullback here, but Shorts on SOL could be very vulnerable to a short squeeze if the market makes a small move higher.
Technical analysis
- SOL has moved substantially higher in the past two weeks and is now well above its Kelten Channel.
- The Daily, 3D and Weekly RSI are all heavily overbought. This suggests SOL is due for a pullback.
- $205 to $215 is a significant horizontal resistance for SOL, so it may be the case that price rejects from here, consolidates or pulls back slightly.
- The upper Yellow Box is a good area of support that, if price pulled back to, we would be buyers of SOL at that price level between $164 and $170.
- We're unsure if SOL pulls back as far as the bottom Yellow box between $145 and $151.
Cryptonary's take
As we predicted, over the past few weeks, SOL has been the outperformer again, following ETH's outperformance and rally into the $4,000 area.We expect a slight pullback in the overall market, and we don't think SOL will be immune to this. However, we respect that we're in a wider bull market and are not looking to sell Spot bags. If SOL fell below $170, we would add it to our Spot bags. If SOL were to reach $150 or even below this level, we would be aggressive buyers. However, we don't expect to see SOL fall to $150.
This would be healthy if there is a slight pullback/consolidation period for price. This would also help fuel SOL to move swiftly in the future.
Once SOL breaks above $210, we expect a relatively swift move to the all-time high of $255.
RUNE
- RUNE has rejected from the horizontal resistance of $11.00 and has now found support at the middle bound of the Kelten Channel.
- The Yellow box is between $7.05 and $7.50. We expect this to fill some time in the coming week or two.
- $6.53 is a big horizontal support, so we expect that to hold as major support.
- The RSI has reset, having been in heavily overbought territory on the larger timeframes.
Cryptonary's take
At this price, we wouldn't look to sell our RUNE bags if we were holding (I am not personally/Tom).However, if you're long-term bullish on RUNE or just looking to up your exposure, the Yellow box (between $7.05 and $7.50) may be a good level to add RUNE. $6.50 would be an even better level, assuming the price gets as low as that.
PYTH
- Having had a large move higher, PYTH may pull back, particularly if there is a larger market-wide pullback.
- PYTH is in overbought territory on all major timeframes, giving credence to a pullback.
- We have identified the Yellow box between $0.72 and $0.77 to add PYTH if the market returns to this level.
Cryptonary's take
PYTH is a coin I (Tom) am personally under-allocated to, so I would like to get exposure to PYTH.However, I would look to add on a more major pullback rather than chase price higher.
SHDW
- A perfect bounce from the Yellow box area that we outlined in the last market direction.
- Price has now moved into the horizontal resistance at $1.74 and has rejected for now.
- It seems the RSI is in a good spot. Once the market finishes with its pullback/consolidation for prices, there should be clear headway for the price to go higher for SHDW.
Cryptonary's take
We wouldn't look to add at current prices, but if price pulled back to $1.20 to $1.40, that would be the range to consider adding to SHDW.The ultimate breakout will happen when price breaks above $1.80. If this happens, we expect price to move considerably higher from there.
POPCAT
- Price rejected into the horizontal resistance of $0.35, and once price broke below the uptrend line, it bounced, but rejected into the underside of the uptrend line, making that new resistance.
- We now look at prices in ranges. $0.16 to $0.20 is a range, the bottom being support and $0.20 being resistance.
- The next range below is $0.10 to $0.16, with $0.10 to $0.12 as the main support zone.
Cryptonary's take
In meme plays, volatility is to be expected. If we study the WIF chart, we can see that it went through multiple 60-80% drawdowns, with price doing hundreds of % gains in between.Ultimately, the major support is between $0.10 and $0.12 for POPCAT, and we saw WIF lose its ultimate support before quickly recovering.
We have posted before saying that 100x's are not for the faint-hearted, and that seems very true today.
Yet, we remain at 20x in POPCAT from our entries. Personally (Tom), I am still holding, having not sold any of my initials.
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