Bitcoin's recent performance defies market expectations

Well, not anymore. Amid recent financial tremors, Bitcoin stands tall at the $34,000 mark, as if it's found its secret lair of stability. 

As they say, 'Respect the strength.' But how long can this defy-gravity act last? BTC has performed fantastically to hold up in and around the $34k level. What do we expect from here?  

TLDR

• Bitcoin defies expectations, holding strong at $34k with potential for a bullish breakout.
• Despite overbought signals, Bitcoin's resilience challenges market norms, suggesting potential for further upside.
• Positive indicators suggest Bitcoin's sustained strength, making it a promising bet for continued growth.
• Traders betting against Bitcoin might miss out on a potential surge in value.

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

Technical analysis

BTC has held this level at $34k without having had any meaningful retests of lower levels. We are now forming a pennant-like pattern at the horizontal resistance area of $34,500, but BTC seems comfortable at this level.

“In recent days, we’ve seen a big sell-off in risk assets like the S&P and BTC has been able to avoid a sell-off itself. With the price action we’ve seen in recent days, you have to respect the strength. Yes, there are still several indicators that suggest the market is very overheated here, but again, you have to respect the recent price action”.

The above was the update we gave on Friday. This remains true, and with some key macro events this year, how BTC moves, i.e., does it trade like a risk asset, or does it continue to be positively correlated to GOLD and trade as a “safe haven” asset? Watching this trend remain or change will be key for us going forward. 

RSI and funding rates

The RSI remains heavily in overbought territory, which suggests that a pullback in price is on the cards at some point. However, whether that is now or later, i.e., from a higher price, is the question. 

The funding rates remain positive, and Perps were driving price, but in recent days, we have seen Spot follow through. What we do note is that the Open Interest is quite high, indicating that a lot of leverage is being taken out. 

BTC 12hr 

Cryptonary’s take

Positive price action has continued, and BTC holds this higher price point while forming a bullish structure. Due to this, we have turned more tactically bullish. 

We now see several calls for retests of the $31,000 to $32,000 level, and this now feels like a crowded trade, potentially due to many still under-positioned. 

We feel the price can move higher from here WITHOUT a retest of lower levels. BTC possibly holds its pennant structure and breaks out higher from that. The potential retest might come later, i.e., BTC moves to, say, $37,700 and then retests the $34k area where people finally realise, “OK, this is on its way; I need to increase my exposure”.  

A retest of lower levels seems to us to be the crowded trade. We, therefore, think we should go higher from here, particularly as BTC remains in a bullish structure. Next target? Possibly $37,700.

Action 

1. We like BTC for further upside here. The crowded trade is calling for a pullback. We would suggest increasing exposure, particularly to some ALTS if they haven’t yet moved already.