BNB price struggles near key resistance levels
As BNB faces resistance at key levels, short-term relief from broader market conditions may push prices higher. But with structural confluence and negative funding rates, the risk of a pullback remains high.
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
BNB
Market context
Markets have seen some relief following last week's Fed meeting, where Powell was less hawkish than expected. There wasn't an aggressive shift in tone or any new overly bearish surprises from the Fed. Risk assets were very oversold coming into the week, so this opened the door for a short-term bounce. That's what we're seeing now - a relief move, not a change in broader market structure.
Technical analysis & market mechanics
- BNB is currently trading between $625 (support) and $650 (resistance), with price chopping through this range for weeks.
- We've seen multiple deviations below $625, but buyers continue to defend the level.
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- $650 is the key resistance to begin building a short position.
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- RSI at local resistance is 56.61 - close to the February 12th high where the price was rejected with RSI at 60.2. This could further support the idea that we are nearing exhaustion to the upside if the price pushes higher
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- If the price pushes to $680, that becomes the next key level to add size to the short.
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- Pulling Fib from $730 high (Feb 13) to $506 low (Mar 11), $650 aligns with the 0.618 level - strong confluence for rejection.
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- Funding rate is negative at -0.0365%, suggesting the market is heavily leaning Short and it may be vulnerable to a squeeze. This could see prices go higher as a result.
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- Open interest has climbed to $668.19M (Mar 8 low) from $572M, indicating a slight increase in added risk positioning
Cryptonary's take
BNB continues to trade within a high-probability short setup. Relief across risk assets has lifted the price toward resistance, but structural confluences at $650-$680 suggest the upside is limited. That said, we do expect short-term direction to push higher due to broader market relief, short liquidations above resistance, and negative funding, suggesting that shorts are currently paying a strong premium to Longs to be Short, which is likely unsustainable. We'll look to capitalise on this move by fading strength into resistance. Execution starts at $650, with staggered short entries at $650, $680, and $710. Stop loss for the full position is set at $755. Patience is key - we want the squeeze to mature before committing size.
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