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BNB
Market context
Markets have seen some relief following last week's Fed meeting, where Powell was less hawkish than expected. There wasn't an aggressive shift in tone or any new overly bearish surprises from the Fed. Risk assets were very oversold coming into the week, so this opened the door for a short-term bounce. That's what we're seeing now - a relief move, not a change in broader market structure.
Technical analysis & market mechanics
- BNB is currently trading between $625 (support) and $650 (resistance), with price chopping through this range for weeks.
- We've seen multiple deviations below $625, but buyers continue to defend the level.
- $650 is the key resistance to begin building a short position.
- RSI at local resistance is 56.61 - close to the February 12th high, where the price was rejected with RSI at 60.2. This could further support the idea that we are nearing exhaustion to the upside if the price pushes higher
- If the price pushes to $680, that becomes the next key level to add size to the short.
- Pulling Fib from $730 high (Feb 13) to $506 low (Mar 11), $650 aligns with the 0.618 level - strong confluence for rejection.
- Funding rate is negative at -0.0365%, suggesting the market is heavily leaning Short and it may be vulnerable to a squeeze. This could see prices go higher as a result.
- Open interest has climbed to $668.19M (Mar 8 low) from $572M, indicating a slight increase in added risk positioning
Cryptonary's take
BNB continues to trade within a high-probability short setup. Relief across risk assets has lifted the price toward resistance, but structural confluences at $650-$680 suggest the upside is limited. That said, we do expect short-term direction to push higher due to broader market relief, short liquidations above resistance, and negative funding, suggesting that shorts are currently paying a strong premium to Longs to be Short, which is likely unsustainable.
We'll look to capitalise on this move by fading strength into resistance. Execution starts at $650, with staggered short entries at $650, $680, and $710. Stop loss for the full position is set at $755. Patience is key - we want the squeeze to mature before committing size.
XRP
Market context
XRP has been one of the stronger performers in terms of resilience, holding up well despite a weak start to the year across risk assets. The recent bounce in broader markets, driven by a more dovish J Powell and a potential easing of tariffs, has created short-term relief. While this isn't a structural shift in direction, it has opened the door for XRP to grind higher into key resistance - and that's where we begin to get interested on the sell side.
Technical analysis & market mechanics
- XRP is currently trading between local support at $2.26 and local resistance at $2.60 - a range it's respected since early March.
- We've seen repeated bounces off $2.26 with strong demand stepping in, making this a reliable near-term floor/support.
- A key inflexion took place on 16th Feb - price topped around $2.795 before retracing, marking this as an area to watch, as potential resistance.
- There are no meaningfully overbought signals on the daily timeframe whilst the RSI is neutral, sitting well below prior rejection points, suggesting room for a further controlled push higher.
- If $2.60 is breached, this confirms a bullish short-term continuation and opens the door to a move into $2.795.
- Beyond that, $3.20 marks the final upside target - a strong supply zone and high-conviction short trigger.
- From a structural standpoint, the broader range between $2.00 and $2.60 continues to define XRP's trading behaviour; the key range low remains at $2.00.
- Open Interest has climbed from recent lows of $2.9B to $3.95B - a 36% increase, suggesting increased appetite for leverage exposure.
- Liquidation clusters are forming around $2.50 (above local highs from March 19th) and $2.40 (below short-term support) - this adds fuel for a potential sweep in either direction before a directional move is locked in, we do favour a sweep to the upside.
Cryptonary's take
We believe XRP is set to push higher in the short term with a breakout of $2.600 into the trading zone. The structure is firm, funding is light, and there's still space to squeeze higher before reverting lower. Our plan is to capitalise on strength by fading into high-conviction resistance. We begin building short exposure at $2.795, layering again at $3.00 & $3.20. Stop loss is cleanly set above $3.50. This is a playbook-driven setup: disciplined entries into overextension, with a $2.00 reversion target once the move exhausts. No chasing - we wait for the price to come to us, then strike.
TON
Technical analysis & market mechanics
- TON continues to consolidate between $3.50 (support) and $3.90 (resistance), holding steady despite broader relief rallies across the market.
- The $3.90 level has been tested repeatedly and is the key breakout level to watch - a close above opens the door for continuation.
- If broken, the next resistance zones are $4.35 and $4.75 - high-conviction short levels due to multiple technical confluences.
- These confluences include a bearish channel drawn since the all-time high top out, which TON continues to respect cleanly.
- A push into the $4.35-$4.75 zone would be clean overextension within a broader bearish trend.
- The RSI has slight room to move higher, and a breakout above $3.90 would likely be accompanied by RSI strength - further confirming the upside into short zones. This would then be attractively oversold to back our short thesis.
- Structurally, TON remains in a bearish trend, so any strength is expected to be short-lived and corrective in nature.
Cryptonary's take
TON has been consolidating quietly, but that could change quickly. If $3.90 breaks with strength, we expect a late-stage relief rally to carry the price into $4.35 and possibly $4.75. These are the levels where we'll look to build short positions. The setup is clean: an overextended move into a bearish channel aligned with a broader trend structure. This would be one of the most high-conviction shorts on our current watchlist. Execution begins above $4.35, layering into $4.75, with a final stop above $5.30. We stay patient - this one may take time to mature, but the risk-reward is exceptional.
DOGE
Technical analysis & market mechanics
- DOGE recently rejected from $0.1836, which was local resistance, and is now trading above this level.
- The secondary local resistance is around $0.200
- The immediate structure is forming between $0.1635 and $0.20 - this mid-range acts as the current trading range.
- A reclaim of $0.20 would be significant and opens the door for a measured move to $0.24 - a key target and short trigger zone.
- DOGE continues to respect a broader bearish channel, with clean bounces off both upper and lower bounds - aligning with technical short zones.
- From a shorter-term perspective, the price has broken out from a descending diagonal resistance, suggesting a momentum shift in the short term.
- RSI has also broken out of oversold territory, showing that there's still room for upside before momentum stalls.
- The downside remains open longer term, with the $0.14 zone as the primary target once the overextension completes and the price reverts.
Cryptonary's take
DOGE is on our radar for a late-stage move - we've seen this playbook before. Memes tend to lag and then overextend once the rotation hits, and we're positioning to catch that final leg, which we do expect to happen. We'll be building shorts into $0.24 and $0.264 with a small size, not front-running it. If it nukes from here, fine - but we want the high-probability entry. Stop sits cleanly above $0.295. No chasing, no guessing - we wait for the exhaust, then hit it. We do think DOGE has room to move higher into these zones over the coming weeks, so we'll be monitoring the developments closely. We anticipate $0.2000 will be tested in the coming days.
SPX
Market context
SPX has delivered a textbook relief bounce off the back of broader market optimism. After retracing 82% from its highs, SPX rebounded over 110% from the $0.30 lows - a sharp recovery driven by speculative flows. But make no mistake: this is a low-liquidity, high-risk asset, and in a market that's still structurally cautious, tokens this far out on the risk curve remain highly vulnerable. While the bounce has been strong, the broader macro environment doesn't support a sustained upside for these kinds of assets. Profit-taking is expected to be resistance, especially from participants who've been underwater for months.
Technical analysis & market mechanics
- SPX has bounced ~110% from the $0.30 low and reclaimed $0.58 - now acting as local support.
- Local resistance sits at $0.65, with a secondary resistance level at $0.74.
- If the price continues higher, the key short zone begins at $0.82 and extends to $0.99.
- This zone aligns with the upper boundary of a structured descending channel visible on the higher timeframe chart.
- Price action has been vertical - a straight-up, low-volume grind - typical of illiquid tokens in relief cycles.
- The 0.82-0.99 zone is likely to attract significant supply as trapped holders look to exit positions.
- The downside target for any short position is a return to $0.30 - the previous swing low and the origin of the breakout move.
- SPX remains thinly traded, making sharp wicks and volatility more likely - execution must be planned precisely.
- RSI is currently at 61.52 and has room to move higher based on how it has traded in the past. However, it has come out of oversold territory on the daily timeframe quite aggressively, so we may see some relief in the short term before the price continues higher.
Cryptonary's take
This is one of those setups you wait for. We're not touching SPX unless it trades into $0.82-$0.99. That's the zone where we get aggressive when looking too short into this region. Everything else in between is noise - the short only makes sense once the price enters that structured rejection region. Until then, we sit out. Liquidity is thin; it's already up 2x off the lows, and in this market, sellers are lurking everywhere above. If SPX gives us the setup, we take it. If not, we move on. Patience is key.
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