Several developments over the weekend and week ahead:

The US government shutdown should be close to ending this week. Trump also announced a $2000 stimulus check: "A dividend of at least $2000 a person will be paid to everyone." Similar stimulus during the covid era was bullish for markets as some of that money flowed into markets and crypto.

We're also getting closer to the Fed ending balance sheet reduction on December 1st, effectively ending Quantitative Tightening (QT), which could support liquidity and risk assets into 2026.

SP500 and NASDAQ showed positive reactions in premarket trading.

Early flows in crypto were heavily bearish to start November, but are starting to bounce. November is historically the most bullish month for BTC.

Is the correction that followed Powell's hawkish FOMC intervention finished?

For the full macro analysis - including ETF flows, institutional positioning - read our Market Update published today.

TLDR from Market Update: The US government is set to reopen by mid-November after the Senate passed a temporary funding bill through Jan 2026.

Liquidity conditions remain tight: QT ending doesn’t equal QE, and TGA drawdown will stabilise markets but not fuel risk assets.

BTC’s bounce from $98k appears to be short-covering; with ETFs still seeing outflows and long-term holders selling, a rejection near $108k–$110k and potential dip below $100k remains likely

This Market Direction report focuses on the specific LEVELS and ZONES to watch, with actionable trading guidance for each asset.

Let’s dive into the charts and find the key levels.

TLDR

• US Government shutdown ending (Senate passed funding bill) 
• Trump announced $2000 stimulus checks for Americans 
• BTC hit our $100k-$102k target and completed the SFP pattern we predicted
• Bias: Bullish on BTC (targeting $108k-$110k) | Neutral to Bullish on ETH, SOL, HYPE, AURA

📊 For Full Market Context:

Read our Market Update (published today) for:

• US government reopening timeline and political implications
• Liquidity outlook : why QT ending ≠ QE beginning
• Breakdown of Trump’s proposed $2K “stimmy” and its real impact
• BTC flow data: ETF outflows, LTH selling, and short-covering rally
• Medium-term catalysts and invalidation criteria

This Market Direction focuses on specific price levels, technical setups, and actionable trading zones.

*These levels are valid through Sunday Nov 16th. Fresh analysis next Friday.*

TLDR:

• BTC: Bounced at $100k-$102k, eyeing $108k-$110k resistance; bullish on confirmation above, but breakdown below $98k risks $93k.
• ETH: Neutral bias; needs $3,800-$4,000 reclaim for bullish stance. Below $3,200 targets $2,800 support.
• SOL: Holding $163 keeps $180-$190 in view; losing $150 risks drop to $120-$125 support.
• HYPE: Rangebound. Break of $44 targets $49-$50; below $39-$40 risks $28 key support.
• AURA: Neutral to bullish; watch for $0.10 breakout or buy dips toward $0.055-$0.065 support. Breakdown below $0.05 risks $0.03.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice.

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BTC:

• Price Range: $100,000 – $110,000
• Bias: Bullish
• HEDGE positions if BTC retest $108-$110k. Increase positions or hold above $110k if we get there.
• Resistance: $108,000 – $110,000
• Current Support area: $100,000 – $102,000 
• Breakdown Trigger: $98,000
• Next Support in case of Breakdown: $93,000

Technical analysis

As expected in the previous Market Direction, taking the liquidity above $116k and quickly reversing was locally a bearish behavior.

$108,000 – $110,000 support area got weaker after each touch and finally broke down last week to go directly to our target at $100,000 – $102,000.

Following our analysis in previous Market Directions, we got the reaction we expected there: a strong reaction from this order block and a Swing Failure Pattern (a Swing Failure Pattern occurs when price briefly breaks a previous high or low to trigger stop orders but then reverses sharply in the opposite direction, signaling a potential reversal). 

The SFP is clearer than Friday as we got decisive closes above $102k on the daily.  We also got the weekly SFP setup we were aiming for.

BTC is already bouncing and the next area of resistance is around $108,000 – $110,000.

A close below $98k would make things riskier, and it could damage our bullish thesis since it would break the market structure on higher timeframes. Next support area in case of a breakdown below $98k would be $93k, where is the Yearly Open (Key Level).

A deviation below $93k into $88,888 would also probably be a Worst Case scenario and incredible buying opportunity if presented.

One thing to note, we get strong OG Whale Dumping when BTC is above $100k, which happened the entire year, and is a bearish force on BTC.

To compensate for those bearish flows, we were having bullish flows from DATs, ETF, and Stablecoins, which made BTC overall flat on the year.

But, as shown in the next chart from Wintermute, those bullish flows from Stablecoins + DATs + ETFs are now decreasing from the previous month for the first time since March.

This helps explain WHY we finally broke down to $100k after months of consolidation: the OG whale selling finally overwhelmed the institutional buying that had been supporting price.

The key question: Will institutional flows resume at these lower levels? That's what we're monitoring daily (see our Market Update for detailed flow analysis). This bounce appears to be primarily short-covering rather than a change in institutional demand

On the weekly chart, the 3 previous big corrections BTC had since its 2022 lows always followed this playbook:

1. Form a low
2. SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) of the previous low while retest the Weekly 50 EMA
3. Continuation of the uptrend

BTC just had a SFP and weekly close above the previous low from Oct 10th and the weekly 50 EMA, which was exactly the setup we were aiming for.

BTC’s uptrend should continue from there if the setup is similar to previous important lows since 2022.

A close below the weekly 50 EMA at $100,800 would be the first time since September 2023 and an important change in BTC behavior.

Liquidity Analysis: Confirming the Bullish Case

Looking at the BTC order book heatmap reveals interesting dynamics:

1. 1. Fake Seller Pressure: A large wall of sell orders appeared between $104k-$100k that "walked" price down, then mysteriously disappeared. This wasn't organic selling: someone wanted to push BTC lower WITHOUT getting filled (classic whale accumulation tactic).
   2. Real Buyer Interest: Meanwhile, a substantial new wall of bids has appeared down to $95k, showing genuine demand at these levels.
   3. Plunge Protection: A massive $57 million bid appeared just below $100k on the retest to end the correction.
   4. SFP and move in the opposite direction: Plunge protection worked and price quickly reversed to $106k, at the time of writing

What this means: As per the previous analysis ,the last part of the move to below $100k may have been artificially done, which actually supported the bounce scenario as genuine buyers stepped in. Above $102k and the SFP scenario was confirmed.

What is a BTC heatmap? It shows where large buy and sell orders (liquidity walls) sit across price levels. Bright colors (like red, yellow, orange) represent high concentrations of limit orders, meaning areas where many traders are looking to buy or sell. These zones often act as support (buy walls) or resistance (sell walls) and can influence short-term price action.

What Would Invalidate Our Bullish Near-Term View?

We’d reconsider our $108k-$110k target if we see:

*Technical Signals:*

• BTC breaks and closes below $98k on daily chart
• Volume confirms breakout 
• Weekly close below weekly 50 EMA

*Flow Reversal:*

• ETF inflows continue to stay negative for 3+ consecutive days

*Macro Shift:*

• DXY continuation above $100-$101
• Fed speakers adopt decisively hawkish tone
• Government shutdown drags on

Without 2-3 of the above occurring, we maintain $100k as the best risk/reward entry zone and bounce area, and a first resistance area of $108k-$110k.

For detailed flow analysis and what catalysts would bring institutional buyers back, see our Market Update (published today).

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ETH:

• Price Range: $2,800 – $3,900
• Bias: Neutral 
• Wait for a $3,500 retest to add, or $2,800 dip to buy. Hedge if retest of $3,800- $4,000 zone.
• Resistance: $3,800- $4,000 
• Support Zone: $2,800
• Breakdown Trigger: $3,200

Technical analysis

Ethereum currently stands at $3,580 after a good bounce from the lows, following BTC SFP.

But ETH broke back below the $3,800-$3,900 Key Level  on the weekly, which makes ETH more bearish than BTC on the high timeframes again: ETH is now back in the $2,800-$3,900 range.

To be bullish again, ETH needs to close above the range and get above the resistance at $3,800-$4,000.

Breaking the $4,250 resistance zone would make ETH very bullish again, opening the path to All Time Highs.

If BTC was to retest the $108-$110k resistance, ETH would probably retest the $3,800-$4,000 zone.

As long as ETH holds $3,500, we could target the Key Level at $3,800-$3,900.

A close below $3,200 would give more credit to the bearish thesis and we would target $2,800 as the next support.

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SOL:

• Price Range: $120 – $190
• Bias: Neutral 
• Add if dips to $120, Hedge if retest of $180 – $190 resistance.
• Resistance: $180 – $190
• Support Zone: $120 – $125
• Breakdown Trigger: Break below $150

Technical analysis

SOL continued its downtrend that started mid-September,as we continue to get lower highs and lower lows on the daily. 

SOL broke down back into the $120-$190 range and is currently sitting at $168 after bouncing on the the mid-range at $153.

To be bullish again, SOL needs to reclaim above the top of the range at $190.

As long as SOL is holding $163, we would target the top of the range around $180–$190.

A close below $150 would give more credit to the bearish thesis and we would target $120–$125 as the next support, which is the bottom of the weekly range and also the 200-Week EMA.

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HYPE:

• Price Range: $28 – $44
• Bias: Neutral 
• Add if breaks $44. Strong Buy below $28.
• Resistance: $43-$44
• Support Zone: $28
• Breakdown Trigger: Break below $37

Technical analysis

HYPE is currently trapped between the resistance at $43-$44 (both daily Orderblock and bottom of the channel) and the support at $39-$40 (both daily Orderblock and 200-Day SMA+EMA).

A break of resistance around $43-$44 and we would target mid-channel around $49- $50 again.

A close below the $39-$40 Orderblock and we would get more neutral as it could retest the lows, and the next big support would be around $28. 

That would be an incredible buy point, as $28 is both an important horizontal support and the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the entire $9- $59 move (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is a key technical level marking a strong potential reversal point where price tends to bounce or reject within a trend).

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AURA:

• Price Range: $0.055 – $0.1
• Bias:  Neutral to Bullish
• HOLD. Wait for $0.10 breakout or buy $0.055-$0.065 support.
• Resistance and Key Level to Reclaim: $0.1
• Support Zone: $0.055-$0.065
• Breakdown Trigger: Break below $0.05

Technical analysis

AURA is still consolidating within a range, with resistance at $0.10 and support in the $0.055–$0.065 zone. 

After a rejection from the 200-Day EMA+SMA (key indicators of long-term trend direction), AURA continues to retest and maintain the daily orderblock support around $0.055-$0.065.

A confirmed breakout above the $0.10 resistance could signal a bullish shift in momentum, and we would probably move fast toward the $0.15 level and beyond.

As long as AURA is holding this daily orderblock as support, it still looking like an Adam and Eve bottom, which is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend and consists of two consecutive bottoms:

-the first (Adam) is sharp and V-shaped, showing a quick sell-off and rebound

-the second (Eve) is rounded and wider, showing slower, steadier accumulation.

The pattern would confirm on a price break above the resistance at $0.12.

A close below the daily orderblock at $0.055-$0.065 and this pattern would be invalidated.

Next support after $0.05 is around $0.03 for AURA and this would likely present an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Cryptonary’s Take 

Following our Nov 3rd/7th Market Directions, BTC moved precisely to our $100k-$102k target zone (orderblock + SFP zone + Weekly 50 EMA confluence). 

We then got the SFP we expected and a strong bounce followed. We have the confirmation of the Swing Failure Pattern, as we saw:

• Decisive daily closes above $102k 
• Volume-confirmed reversal 
• Multiple rejections of the $100k level showing strong support (Four daily wicks below $101k)

Our previous assessment that there is a higher probability that this zone holds was CORRECT. This validates our technical framework.

Current assessment: 75% probability this zone continue to hold and we retest $108-$110k based on:

• Historical precedent (previous corrections followed this exact playbook)
• Current bounce is playing out
• Weekly 50 EMA alignment (critical support that held)
• November seasonality (most bullish month historically)

There remains a 25% probability BTC rejects before retesting $108k-$110k and invalidates this SFP scenario. A weekly close below $100,800 would invalidate the bullish setup and open the door to $93k (Yearly Open), with potential deviation to $88,888 as worst-case.

Action: If you have added at $100k-$102k, as per our analysis:

• Option A: Wait for 1-3 daily closes above $108k-$110k (breakout confirmed) to add
• Option B: Consider hedging around $108k-$110k
• Option C: A close below $98k and reassess thesis (structure break - see Market Update for detailed flows)

Risk Management Framework:

• Conservative: Wait for $108k-$110k break to confirm reversal (lower risk, lower return)
• Moderate: Add 15-20%  above $110k, after our entries of 25-30% at $100k-$102k if we get 3 daily closes above $110k

Timeline: We got the confirmation since the last Market Direction. If current bounce is faded within the next 7-14 days, the probability shifts toward the $93k scenario.

Rate cuts continuing, QT ending December 1st, US government shutdown close to an end, US stimulus checks and improving US-China relations support our $125k-$135k year-end target. 

For institutional flow data, ETF tracking, and macro catalysts: See Tom's Market Update published today.

Patience here should be rewarded by the end of Q4 2025.

*This Week’s Key Monitoring Points (Nov 10-17):*

Daily Checklist:

□ Is BTC holding $100k?

□ Is BTC rejected by $108k-$110k?

□ ETF flows - any reversal to positive?

□ S&P 500 & NASDAQ - time to bounce?

□ DXY - is 100-101 still resistance?

*Critical Levels This Week:*

• BTC below $98k = $93k target becomes active
• BTC above $108k-$110k = bearish thesis invalidated
• ETF flows positive 2+ days = institutions returning (see Market Update for flow analysis)
• DXY above 101 = continued dollar strength headwind

*What Could Change The Setup:*

• Fed speaker increase hawkishness
• Government shutdown drags on
• Major BTC whales offloading
• China stimulus delays

For detailed macro monitoring and what flows/data we’re tracking, see our Market Update.

Thanks for reading!

*These levels are valid through Sunday, November 16th. Fresh analysis next Friday.*