Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Quick bridge from earlier this week…

Market conditions have begun to shift modestly as we get into 2026, following a prolonged period of holiday driven compression. Bitcoin, which had remained range bound with a neutral-bearish tilt, is now pressing back into the $90,200 resistance with improving momentum. Unlike prior attempts, downside follow through has been limited, and price is finally showing signs of absorption, suggesting a potential change in short term dynamics here as volatility starts to return.

Ethereum and Solana have delivered clearer progress. ETH has successfully pushed above the $3,050-$3,055 resistance zone and is attempting to hold above it, improving short term structure after weeks of range bound consolidation. Similarly, Solana has reclaimed and sustained above the $126.15 level, flipping prior resistance into support. This marks an important structural development for SOL, particularly given its earlier base formation around the $120-$121 demand region.

Overall, while the broader market is only just emerging from holiday induced inertia, these reclaim levels across majors suggest early signs of directional resolution. Bitcoin remains the key trigger asset, but relative strength in ETH and SOL points to improving conditions beneath the surface. If these acceptance levels hold, the market may be transitioning from compression into a more constructive phase going into early Q1.

TLDR

• BTC: Pressing $90,200 with improving momentum, RSI at 54, acceptance above $90,200 opens $93,150 and $96,000, while failure risks continuation of the prior range.
• ETH: Pressing into $3,055, holding above $2,900 FVG, structure turns bullish only on sustained acceptance above $3055.
• SOL: Reclaimed and holding $126.15, targets $135.4 and $144.5 as long as support holds.
• HYPE: Back inside range $23.5-$25.2, neutral until a clean reclaim above $25.2 or loss of $23.5.
• AURA: Basing below $0.03, momentum improving, upside depends on continued SOL strength.

Bitcoin

TA:

BTC is once again pressing into the $90,200 resistance zone, but this attempt is structurally stronger than prior rejections, with price holding above recent higher lows and compressing just beneath resistance.

Unlike previous breakout attempts, downside follow through has been limited, suggesting sellers at $90,200 are getting absorbed.

A clean acceptance above $90,200 would mark the first meaningful reclaim of range resistance in weeks and would shift short term structure bullish.

If acceptance is achieved, upside continuation toward the next liquidity pockets such as $93,150 and $96,000 becomes likely.

RSI has pushed into bullish territory at 54 with average at 45, reflecting improving momentum. The 200 EMA remains above price near $100k, but momentum turning first supports the case for a continuation move before higher timeframe resistance comes into play.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $86,400
• Next Resistance: $90,200
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $93,150
• Downside Target: $83,790

Bitcoin Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Bitcoin is showing its strongest attempt yet at reclaiming $90,200, with momentum finally backing the move. This is the first time in the recent range where upside pressure looks sustained.

If BTC achieves acceptance above $90,200, the path toward $93,150 opens quickly, with $96,000 acting as the next major structural checkpoint. Failure to accept above resistance would still keep the broader range intact, but for now, bias shifts cautiously bullish as long as momentum continues to build and higher lows are maintained.

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Ethereum

TA:

Ethereum has continued to base above the 4H FVG, with price holding the $2,900 region and showing improving structure.

Since the last update, ETH has pushed back into the previously lost downtrend trendline and is now actively pressing into the $3,055 resistance zone.

This area marks a key point, as acceptance above $3,055 would confirm a structural reclaim and open higher resistances.

Failure to hold above $3,055 would likely keep ETH range bound, rotating back toward the top of the FVG.

RSI has improved materially, hovering around 56 with average at 46, signalling strengthening momentum, while the daily 200 EMA near $3,357 sits between higher targets.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $2,900
• Next Resistance: $3,055
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $3,234 and $3,436
• Downside Target: $2,794

Ethereum Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Ethereum is showing improving relative strength, holding its base above the 4H FVG and pushing back into key resistance. Unlike prior attempts, momentum is now supporting price, increasing the odds of a structural reclaim if acceptance develops.

A sustained hold above $3,055 would shift ETH firmly into a neutral-bullish regime, opening a path toward $3,234 and potentially the $3,400+ region where the 200 EMA resides. This area remains a major test for trend continuation.

Until acceptance is confirmed, ETH remains at risk of continued range behaviour. However, compared to recent weeks, structure and momentum are improving, making Ethereum one of the cleaner charts among the majors heading into the next phase.

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Solana

TA:

Solana has delivered a key structural development, with a daily close above the $126.15 level, marking the first meaningful acceptance above this resistance after several failed attempts.

Following the breakout, today’s daily candle retested $126.15 as support and has so far held, indicating early signs of a successful flip.

This reclaim shifts Solana out of its prior compression range between $121-$126 and opens higher timeframe liquidity above.

As long as price holds above $126.15, the structure remains constructive, with continuation favoured over a return to range.

RSI has recovered back to neutral around 50 with average around 42, supporting the breakout attempt, while the daily 200 EMA near $163 continues to slope slightly downward, acting as a higher timeframe resistance zone.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $126.15
• Next Resistance: $135.40
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $144.50
• Downside Target: $121.05

Solana Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Solana is one of the few majors showing a clean structural improvement, with a confirmed daily close above $126.15 and a successful retest so far. This reclaim materially improves short term structure and shifts focus toward higher liquidity levels.

Holding above $126.15 keeps $135.40 in play as the next major resistance, followed by $144-145, where higher timeframe sellers are likely to re engage. Momentum has reset favourably, supporting the idea that this move has room to extend if the broader market cooperates.

Failure to hold $126.15 would negate the breakout and likely return Solana back into its prior range. For now, structure favours cautious upside continuation, making SOL one of the stronger relative setups among the majors heading into early 2026.

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HyperLiquid (HYPE)

TA:

HYPE has slipped back below the $25.2 level and is now trading back inside its prior range, with $25.2 acting as overhead resistance once again.

Price is currently trading between $25.2 on the upside and $23.5 on the downside.

As long as this range holds, price action remains rotational, keeping structure neutral.

RSI is hovering around 39 with average at 39, reflecting weak but stabilising momentum, while the 200 EMA near $35.3 remains far above price, reinforcing the broader corrective structure.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $23.5
• Next Resistance: $25.2
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $26.9
• Downside Target: $21.5

HyperLiquid (HYPE) Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

HyperLiquid has lost its short term breakout attempt and reverted back into its lower range. The failure to hold above $25.2 keeps the chart in consolidation mode

For now, this is a waiting zone. A clean reclaim and acceptance above $25.2 would reopen upside toward $26.9 and $28.3, while failure to hold $23.5 risks a deeper rotation toward $21.5. Until one of these levels gives way, HYPE remains reactive, and not leading.

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Aura

TA:

Aura continues to range tightly just below the $0.03 area, with price structure largely unchanged over the past couple of weeks.

Despite the lack of breakout, price action looks slightly healthier, with downside pressure easing and no further structural breakdowns.

Momentum is gradually improving, RSI is around 39 with an average near 36, indicating recovery from weaker conditions but still below bullish territory.

The 200 EMA is hovering near $0.066, remaining well above price and confirming that Aura is still in a broader corrective phase.

• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Action Plan: DCA and Raid

Aura Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Price is compressing below $0.03 without resolution, and any meaningful upside will likely depend on broader Solana strength. If Solana sustains acceptance above the $126 region, spillover momentum into Solana beta plays like Aura becomes more likely. Until then, Aura stays range bound, with improving momentum but no structural confirmation yet.

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Closing Thoughts

Market structure is beginning to transition after an extended period of chop. Bitcoin is now actively challenging the $90,200 resistance, and unlike previous attempts, momentum has improved and downside reactions have been contained. A clean acceptance above this level would open the path toward $93,150 and potentially $96,000. For now, BTC sits at a decisive point where follow through matters more than the breakout attempt itself.

ETH has reclaimed the $3,050-$3,055 zone and is attempting to hold above it, improving short-term structure and signaling renewed buyer interest. Solana’s sustained acceptance above $126.15 further reinforces this shift, with prior resistance now acting as support and upside continuation increasingly plausible if these levels remain defended. Ethereum and Solana are displaying relative strength, while HyperLiquid has weakened due to unlocks after losing the $25.2 level. Notably, despite Bitcoin’s hesitation, the broader alt market is holding up comparatively better, suggesting underlying strength in higher beta segments. 

Overall, while the market is still emerging from low liquidity holiday conditions, the balance of signals has turned more constructive. Alts are holding up better than Bitcoin, hinting at improving risk appetite as we move into early Q1. Directional clarity will depend on whether current acceptance levels hold, but momentum is finally returning after weeks of stagnation, and the market now appears closer to resolution than it has been in some time.

Cryptonary, OUT!