Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

---

Quick bridge from last week…

In the previous analysis, we maintained a neutral-bullish stance across majors, with a slightly stronger bias toward Solana. Since then, Bitcoin has continued to hold above $73,800 and pushed higher, keeping its structure intact. Ethereum also attempted a breakout above $2,400 but failed to sustain and has since moved back into its prior range.

Solana and Hyperliquid, on the other hand, saw their breakouts fail to hold. Solana was unable to sustain above $87 and has moved back into its previous range, while Hyperliquid lost $43.29 and has also returned to range-bound conditions. This has led to a rollback in stance on both assets, awaiting fresh confirmations.

On the macro side, conditions remain headline-driven, with US-Iran developments continuing to cause sharp moves in both directions. Positioning in Bitcoin still looks supportive for a short-term push higher, but the move remains dependent on a deal catalyst. While this keeps the door open for a move toward $78k-$80k, the rally still looks like a relief move with uncertainty around negotiations keeping markets reactive. For a deeper breakdown, refer to yesterday's Market Update.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment decisions. Virtual assets are volatile and may lose their value in full. Past performance does not indicate future results. Always do your own research.

TLDR

• Risk Posture: Neutral-Constructive
• Bitcoin: BTC continues to hold above $73,800, maintaining a base above breakout. Stance remains neutral-bullish with $79,140-$83,700 as the next upside targets.
• Ethereum: ETH failed to hold above $2,400 and is back inside range. Stance remains neutral-bullish, with another breakout attempt likely if structure holds.
• Solana: SOL’s breakout above $87 turned into a deviation, pushing price back into range. Stance shifts back to neutral-bullish, awaiting a reclaim of $87-$89 for continuation.
• Hyperliquid: HYPE lost $43.29 support and returned to old range lows. Stance shifts to neutral, with price now ranging between $39.97-$43.29.
• Aura: AURA remains range-bound but shows improving momentum, with RSI stabilizing near 50. Further direction depends on strength and continuation in Solana.

Bitcoin

TA

Bitcoin continues to hold the $73,800 level, which has now clearly established itself as support after the breakout. Price has spent multiple sessions building a base above this region, confirming acceptance above the previous resistance.

Following this, Bitcoin pushed higher and printed a local high near $78,300, before seeing rejection and rotating back toward the $73,800 region. Importantly, this level held once again, reinforcing the strength of the support and confirming that price is now operating within a higher range.

With this structure in place, the base case remains for continuation toward the $79,140 level, which is the key weekly upside liquidity and immediate resistance. A move into this region has been in play for a while and now looks increasingly likely.

A break above $79,140 would then open the next upside toward $83,700, marking the next key target zone on the higher timeframe.

On the downside, $73,800 remains the key level to hold. A breakdown below this would weaken the current structure and bring $70,500 back into focus as the next downside target.

The 200 EMA on the daily timeframe is now flattening around $82,600 after a prolonged downtrend, aligning closely with the higher resistance zone and acting as a potential supply region. RSI is around 61, sitting in a healthy range with room for further upside before approaching overbought conditions.

Key Levels:

• Support: $73,800
• Resistance: $79,140
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $79,140 & $83,700
• Downside Target: $70,500

Bitcoin Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Bitcoin continues to show strength by consistently holding above $73,800, with repeated defenses of this level confirming that the breakout is being accepted. The shift into this higher range is a key structural development.

Price has already attempted a move higher and, despite rejection, has not broken down, instead rotating back into the range and holding support again. This type of behavior typically precedes continuation if momentum sustains. With that, the path toward $79,140 remains the primary focus, and a move into that liquidity zone now looks increasingly probable as long as current structure holds.

Ethereum

TA

Ethereum has now attempted a breakout above the $2,400 resistance, pushing as high as $2,463, but the move failed to sustain. Price faced rejection at that level and has since moved back inside the prior range.

With this, Ethereum is once again trading within the broader range between $2,400 on the upside and the $2,170-$2,116 support zone on the downside. Despite the failed breakout, price has not shown any major weakness, instead holding around the mid-range near $2,250 and attempting to build a base.

As long as this mid-range support continues to hold and broader market strength remains intact, the base case still leans toward another attempt at reclaiming $2,400. A successful breakout above this level would open the path toward $2,630, followed by $2,800 as the next upside targets.

On the downside, a loss of the $2,170-$2,116 support region would weaken the structure and shift focus back toward $1,957 as the next downside target.

The 200 EMA continues to trend downward near $2,638, aligning closely with the $2,630 upside target, making that region a key confluence zone where rejection could occur if price reaches there. RSI is around 60, sitting in a healthy range and suggesting there is still room for another push higher.

Key Levels:

• Support: $2,170 & $2,116
• Resistance: $2,400
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $2,630 & $2,800
• Downside Target: $1,957

Ethereum Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Ethereum’s breakout above $2,400 did not sustain, but the rejection has not led to any meaningful downside, with price holding within range and stabilizing around the mid-levels.

On the ETH/BTC side, the ratio has pulled back after failing to sustain its breakout above the 0.0314-0.0317 region, where it faced resistance at the 200 EMA on the daily timeframe. However, this move now looks like a retest of the recent breakout from the short-term downtrend trendline.

If ETH/BTC manages to bounce from here and reclaim the 0.0314-0.0317 region, it would confirm continuation and open the door for Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin in the short to medium term. Until then, this remains a setup in development, with confirmation still pending.

Solana

TA

Solana’s breakout above $87 did not sustain and has now turned into an upside deviation. Price was unable to close above the $89 resistance and subsequently rejected, losing the $87 level which had briefly flipped into support.

With this, Solana is now back inside the prior range between $80.89 on the downside and $87 on the upside. The failed breakout indicates a lack of follow-through, shifting the structure back into a range-bound environment for now.

Given this, we are pivoting from a bullish stance back to a neutral-bullish stance, as the breakout we were tracking did not confirm. However, this does not invalidate the broader thesis, it simply resets the setup.

As long as the $80.89-$78.17 support region holds, the structure remains intact. A reclaim and acceptance above $87 and $89 would once again shift the stance back to bullish, opening the path toward $93 and $100 on the upside.

On the downside, a loss of the $80.89-$78.17 support band would weaken the structure, potentially targeting sub $70 and force a reassessment of the current outlook.

The 200 EMA continues to trend downward near $117, reflecting broader structure, while RSI is around 52, holding just above neutral and indicating a balanced momentum setup. A sustained move higher in RSI would be needed to support a renewed bullish leg.

Key Levels:

• Support: $80.89 & $78.17
• Resistance: $87 & $89
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $93 & $100
• Downside Target: Below $67.6

Solana Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Solana’s failed breakout above $87-$89 has shifted the short-term structure back into consolidation, with the move now looking like a deviation rather than a confirmed breakout. This reduces immediate momentum but doesn’t fully invalidate the broader setup.

The key now is how price behaves within this range. If Solana can stabilize and reclaim the lost resistance levels, the bullish structure can quickly come back into play. Until then, the market is in a reset phase for SOL, with the next meaningful move likely coming from either a confirmed reclaim above resistance or a breakdown of support.

Hyperliquid

TA

Hyperliquid was unable to hold the $43.29 level, which had previously flipped into support after the breakout. Price managed to hold above this region for several sessions, but the lack of continuation eventually led to a breakdown.

Following this, Hyperliquid moved sharply lower toward the next support zone around the $39.97 level and printed a local low near $40.3. This marks a return to the lower end of the range, indicating that the prior breakout has failed to sustain.

With this move, we are now pivoting back to a neutral stance, as the bullish continuation we were tracking has not materialized. The structure now looks range-bound between $39.97 on the downside and $43.29 on the upside.

As long as $39.97 continues to hold, the base case is for consolidation within this range, with the potential for another attempt at reclaiming $43.29. A confirmed breakout and acceptance above $43.29 would shift the stance back toward neutral-bullish, opening the path toward $50.

On the downside, a break below $39.97 would weaken the structure and bring $35.37 into focus as the next downside target, which also aligns closely with the 200 EMA.

The 200 EMA on the daily continues to trend upward near $34.75, sitting below price and reflecting the broader structure. RSI has cooled off to around 51, returning to neutral after previously almost approaching overbought levels, suggesting consolidation may follow before the next directional move.

Key Levels:

• Support: $39.97
• Resistance: $43.29
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $50
• Downside Target: $35.37

Hyperliquid Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Hyperliquid’s inability to hold above $43.29 has shifted the structure back into a range, with the prior breakout now looking like a failed attempt.

The market is now resetting within a defined range, and the next move will likely be dictated by a clean break on either side. Holding above $39.97 keeps the structure stable, while a reclaim of $43.29 would quickly bring the bullish setup back into play.

For now, this is a consolidation phase, with price needing to prove direction again before the next meaningful move unfolds.

Aura

TA

Aura continues to trade sideways within the same range, with no major structural breakout yet, but underlying momentum has clearly improved compared to previous sessions.

This improvement is visible in RSI, which moved up toward the 70 region before cooling off back near 50. Holding above the 50 level would indicate sustained positive momentum and a healthier structure building underneath price.

The overall move remains dependent on Solana, and a confirmed breakout with continuation in SOL would likely act as the trigger for Aura and other Solana beta assets to start outperforming.

The 200 EMA continues to trend downward near $0.0302, reflecting the broader structure, but momentum stabilization above RSI 50 would be an early signal of strength returning.

Aura Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Aura is showing early signs of momentum improvement, even though price remains range-bound. The key shift here is not structure yet, but the change in momentum dynamics, which often precedes price expansion. The next move for Aura will largely depend on Solana; if SOL confirms strength and continuation, Aura is likely to follow and potentially outperform given its higher beta nature.

Closing Thoughts

The market remains constructive, but with signs of exhaustion in certain areas after failed breakouts across Solana and Hyperliquid. Bitcoin continues to be the key driver, holding above $73,800 and maintaining strength, while Ethereum remains stable within its range despite the failed breakout attempt.

For now, the focus shifts back to confirmation. Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to hold neutral-bullish structures, but Solana and Hyperliquid require fresh breakouts and sustained acceptance above resistance levels before a stronger bullish stance can be re-established.

Overall, the base case still leans toward upside as long as Bitcoin holds its support, but the market is clearly demanding confirmation again.