Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Quick bridge from earlier this week…

Earlier this week, we carried a neutral-bullish stance across majors when prices were trying to hold above freshly reclaimed resistances across the board on the daily, however, follow through has been limited so far. Bitcoin briefly accepted above resistance but failed to hold, rotating back into the $90,200 support area, where price is currently stabilising. This suggests higher levels are still being actively sold.

Ethereum has now pulled back into $3,055, a previously untested level we had highlighted, while simultaneously retesting its reclaimed uptrend trendline. This makes the current zone critical, holding keeps structure constructive, while failure risks turning this pullback into a deeper downswing. Solana, after a strong upswing, has cooled near $143-$144 and is now consolidating above $135, which remains a healthy pause and not a structural breakdown as of now.

HyperLiquid also pulled back after tagging the $28.3 target and is now rotating into an old consolidation range. Alongside the majors, we’ve added XMR to today’s Market Direction to capture a broader view of market structure, as it approaches a potential long term breakout on higher timeframes. This sets the stage for today’s analysis.

TLDR

• Bitcoin (BTC): Rejected from $93,150, holding $90,200 for now, old range intact, direction bias intact as long as $90.2K holds.
• Ethereum (ETH): Pulling back into $3,055 support after failing to hold above $3,234, structure remains neutral-bullish as long as $3,055 holds.
• Solana (SOL): Consolidating between $135.4 support and $144.5 resistance, breakout above $144.5 opens $155.8, loss of $135 risks a range reset.
• HyperLiquid (HYPE): Back inside the $25.2-$26.9 range after rejection from $28.4, neutral bias with $25.2 as the key line in the sand.
• Aura (AURA): Ranging between $0.03-$0.035 after a sharp expansion, continuation post acceptance above $0.035.
• Monero (XMR): Compressing just below multi-year resistance at $468-$517 with monthly RSI breaking out, long-term bullish if structure resolves upward.

Bitcoin

TA:

Bitcoin remains within its broader consolidation structure, but price is now holding above the key $90,200 region after failing to sustain acceptance above $93,150. The rejection from $93,150 was sharp, yet importantly, it has not led to impulsive downside continuation just yet.

Since the rejection, BTC has rotated lower and is currently attempting to base around $90,200, which now acts as the immediate line of control. This area is critical for maintaining higher timeframe structure.

A brief sweep below $89,200 on the daily timeframe, followed by a quick reclaim would be viewed as a bullish liquidity grab, especially if price reclaims $90,200 soon after.

However, failure to hold $90,200 on a closing basis would open the door for a deeper rotation toward $86,400, with further downside liquidity resting at $83,790 and $80,500.

RSI has cooled from 64 back to neutral, now around 51 with average around 52, reflecting loss of upside momentum but not outright weakness. The 200 EMA near $99,900 continues to slope slightly lower, keeping higher timeframe pressure intact.

Key Levels

• Next Support: $90,200
• Next Resistance: $93,150
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $96,000
• Downside Target: $86,400 and $83,790 if breakdown accelerates

BTC Daily Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Bitcoin’s structure has softened slightly after rejecting from $93,150, but the broader neutral-bullish shift remains intact as long as $90,200 holds.

A controlled sweep below $89,200 followed by a reclaim would likely strengthen the bullish case, flushing late longs while preserving structure. Conversely, a clean loss of $90,200 would signal deeper downside retracement to higher timeframe liquidity targets before any continuation attempt.

For now, BTC remains neutral-bullish, with dips treated as corrective unless proven otherwise. Acceptance back above $93,150 would reopen momentum toward $96,000, while loss of $90,200 shifts focus back to lower supports.

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Ethereum

TA:

ETH failed to sustain acceptance above the $3,234-$3,240 zone and rotated lower, rejecting and retracing back into its prior demand area at $3,055, as expected after an untested breakout.

The pullback has so far respected $3,055, which aligns with the prior range high and reclaimed trend structure, keeping the move corrective for now.

Price is now consolidating around this support while retesting the recently reclaimed uptrend trendline, making this zone a clear decision point for continuation versus breakdown.

As long as $3,055 holds on a daily closing basis, ETH retains the ability to rotate back toward $3,234, with further upside dependent on strength and broader market support.

RSI has reset from near overbought (68) back to neutral around 51 with average at 53, while the 200 EMA near $3,344 is beginning to flatten, signalling stabilisation.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $3,055
• Next Resistance: $3,234
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $3,436
• Downside Target: $2,872

ETH Daily Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Ethereum is currently in a healthy retracement phase and not in a structural breakdown. The move back into $3,055 was expected given the lack of prior retests, and price action so far suggests buyers are still defending this zone.

Holding above $3,055 keeps ETH positioned for another rotation higher toward $3,234 and potentially $3,436. A loss of this level, however, would invalidate the immediate bullish continuation and open a deeper rotation toward $2,872.

For now, ETH remains neutral-bullish, with structure intact as long as $3,055 holds. The next directional signal will come from whether price can re-accept above $3,234 or fails at this support and rolls lower.

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Solana

TA:

SOL pushed into the $144.5 resistance last week, printing a local high near $143.4 before rotating lower, confirming supply at the prior range high.

The pullback has been orderly so far, with price finding support at $135.4, which has now flipped from resistance into a short term demand zone.

SOL is currently compressing between $135.4 support and $144.5 resistance, forming a tight consolidation just below range highs.

As long as $135.4 holds, the structure remains constructive, and a potential bull flag can be in formation as well for SOL, preserving upside continuation potential.

RSI remains elevated near 60 with average around 53, indicating healthy momentum, while the daily 200 EMA around $161.3 sits above price as a higher timeframe magnet if expansion resumes.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $135.4
• Next Resistance: $144.5
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $155.82
• Downside Target: $126.15

SOL Daily Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Solana is behaving constructively after its recent expansion, consolidating beneath resistance. The pullback into $135.4 has so far attracted bids, suggesting buyers are still active and defending higher levels.

A decisive daily close above $144.5 would confirm continuation and likely open a fast move toward $155.8, with the daily 200 EMA near $161 acting as a higher-timeframe target. That would mark a clean transition from consolidation into trend expansion.

Until that breakout occurs, SOL remains neutral-bullish. A loss of $135.4 would shift the structure back into the prior range and reopen $126.15, but unless that happens, this consolidation continues to favour upside resolution.

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HyperLiquid (HYPE)

TA:

HYPE followed through to the $28.39 resistance as expected, but failed to achieve acceptance there and rotated lower, confirming sellers active at that level.

Price was also unable to sustain above $26.9, losing that level and slipping back into the prior range structure.

HYPE is now back inside its old range between $25.2 support and $26.9 resistance, with no structural breakout currently in play.

As long as price remains below $26.9, upside attempts should be treated as rangebound movements.

RSI has cooled back to neutral near 46 with average at 45, while the daily 200 EMA around $34.6 continues to slope slightly lower, reinforcing a non-trending, corrective environment.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $25.2
• Next Resistance: $26.9
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $28.39
• Downside Target: $23.5

HYPE Daily Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

HyperLiquid has lost momentum after failing at $28.39 and has cleanly rotated back into its prior value range. This behaviour confirms that the recent move was not a sustained breakout, warranting a step back from the earlier neutral-bullish bias.

The $25.2 level is now the clear line in the sand. As long as this support holds, HYPE remains in range and susceptible to further choppy price action. However, a decisive breakdown below $25.2 would likely accelerate downside toward $23.5, with $21.5 opening up if selling pressure builds.

For now, the stance shifts to neutral. Directional conviction only returns if price either reclaims $26.9 with acceptance or loses $25.2 decisively. Until then, HyperLiquid remains a rangebound setup.

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Aura

TA:

Aura has rotated back into its prior consolidation range, trading between 0.03 support and 0.035 resistance, with price currently accepting inside this band.

The rejection above 0.035 has led to consolidation.

Momentum has cooled here, with the price now stabilising above $0.03, a healthy sign for continuation.

RSI has reset to 48 with average at 43 after topping near 62, while the daily 200 EMA sits around 0.064, still well above price, keeping the broader structure intact.

AURA Daily Chart:

• Direction: Bullish
• Action Plan: DCA and Raid

Cryptonary’s Take

Aura is behaving as expected after its impulsive move, consolidating within the 0.03-0.035 range. This kind of digestion phase is healthy, especially with RSI resetting. The bias remains bullish, with acceptance above 0.035 likely acting as the trigger for the next leg higher.

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Monero (XMR)

TA:

On the higher-timeframe monthly log chart, XMR has been consolidating inside a large accumulation structure since early 2018, forming a long-term ascending compression that has now been developing for nearly 7-8 years.

Price continues to respect the upper boundary of this structure, with major resistance clustered around the $468–$517 zone, a region that has capped upside for multiple cycles and now represents the final barrier for a structural breakout.

On the downside, XMR is holding above a strong weekly supply turned support zone ranging roughly from $233 to $290, with the midpoint near $270 acting as the most important demand area that has already been defended on recent pullbacks.

A sustained breakout and acceptance above the $468-$517 resistance band would mark a decisive long term structure shift, opening the door for a large expansion move after years of compression.

Monthly RSI is breaking out of its long term downtrend for the first time since prior cycle peaks (2017, 2021, and the failed 2025 attempt), signaling improving long term momentum and supporting the case for upside expansion if price confirms.

Key Levels:

• Support: Weekly supply-turned-support zone ($233-$290, midpoint $270)
• Resistance: $468 and $517
• Upside Expansion Zone (post-breakout): $700–$900 (probabilistic HTF targets)
• Direction: Long-term bullish, pending breakout confirmation

XMR Monthly Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

Monero is approaching the end of one of the longest consolidation phases in the market, with both price structure and monthly momentum aligning for a potential regime shift. This is a long duration structural setup.

As long as the weekly supply turned support continues to hold, XMR remains well-positioned for a major expansion once the $468-$517 zone is decisively reclaimed. A confirmed breakout would likely transition XMR from accumulation into a sustained trend for the first time in years.

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Closing Thoughts

We entered the week with a neutral-bullish stance across majors, and while upside attempts did try to play out initially, follow through has been mixed. Bitcoin and HyperLiquid have both rotated back into consolidation ranges, signalling a pause. In contrast, Ethereum and especially Solana continue to hold structurally important zones, with Solana showing clear relative strength by defending former resistance as support, something not all majors have managed.

For now, our stance remains neutral on HyperLiquid, while neutral-bullish conditions persist for Ethereum, Bitcoin and Solana. Key invalidation levels remain well defined; a loss of $3,055 on ETH, $90,200 on BTC or $135 on SOL would weaken their current structures. On the downside, a break below $89,200 on Bitcoin would likely introduce broader pullback risk across majors, prompting a reassessment of our current stance.

Finally, we’ve added XMR to today’s Market Direction to broaden the lens beyond majors. Monero continues to show notable relative strength and is approaching a potential multi year breakout on higher timeframes. If confirmed, this could present meaningful opportunities for both swing traders and longer-term participants. As always, we stay level driven and adaptive as conditions evolve.

Cryptonary Out!