Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Quick bridge from last week…

In last week’s Market Direction, our neutral stance across the majors largely played out as expected. Prices rejected from the resistance areas we had outlined and rotated back toward the support zones, keeping Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana broadly range-bound over the past week.

The main structural shift came from Hyperliquid, where the neutral-bearish thesis was invalidated after price broke above the $33 resistance, prompting a reassessment of the setup in today’s report. Additionally, we have included an analysis of the total crypto market cap (TOTAL) to provide a broader view of how the market structure is evolving.

The macro backdrop has shifted following the recent Middle East escalation, which pushed Brent crude above $100 and lifted the Dollar Index and bond yields, reinforcing a broader risk-off tone across markets. We discussed these developments and their implications for Bitcoin and crypto in yesterday’s “This Week’s Setup” report.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment decisions. Virtual assets are volatile and may lose their value in full. Past performance does not indicate future results. Always do your own research.

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TLDR

• Risk Posture: Neutral-Defensive
• BTC: Holding the $65,650 pivot keeps the range intact. A move above $73,800 opens $79,140, while a break below support could accelerate downside toward new lows.
• ETH: Still trapped between $1,900-$2,116. A break above $2,150 opens $2,368, while a loss of $1,900 could send prices toward $1,757.
• SOL: Range between $78-$89 continues. A confirmed break above $93 would open $106.
• HYPE: Structure improving after reclaiming $33. Break above $35.37 could trigger continuation toward $40 while $32.2 remains key support.
• AURA: Still consolidating with the divergence setup intact. Strength in Solana could drive spillover momentum into the asset.
• TOTAL: Market cap holding the $2.31T-$2.34T support zone. A breakout above $2.46T could trigger a 10-12% market-wide expansion.

Bitcoin

TA

Bitcoin continues to respect the levels we have been tracking closely in the previous analyses. After tapping the upside liquidity at $73,800, which was the upside target we had outlined, price faced rejection from that region and rotated lower back into the broader range.

Following that rejection, Bitcoin moved toward the key pivot support at $65,650 and successfully retested it. The reaction from this level once again highlights the presence of buying interest in this zone in the short to medium term, reinforcing its importance as the primary pivot for the current structure.

With $65,650 continuing to hold, Bitcoin has now moved back toward the intermediate resistance around $70,500. While this level previously acted as a stronger resistance, it now serves more as an intermediate barrier before the market tests the major resistance at $73,800 once again.

As long as the $65,650 pivot continues to hold, the broader expectation remains that Bitcoin may continue rotating within the range and potentially attempt another move toward $73,800. A confirmed breakout above that level would open the path toward the next liquidity region near $79,140.

$70,500 also remains a key level, aligning with both horizontal resistance and the 4H 200 EMA. A rejection here could trigger another move toward range support, while a reclaim on lower timeframes may open a rotation toward $73,800.

RSI has recovered and now sits around 52 with an average near 46, showing improved momentum compared to the previous structure. Meanwhile, the 200 EMA on the daily timeframe continues to slope downward and currently sits near $88,700, indicating that the higher-timeframe trend remains under pressure.

Key Levels:

• Support: $65,650
• Resistance: $73,800
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $79,140
• Downside Target: $59,800

Chart: Bitcoin Key Levels

Cryptonary’s Take:

Bitcoin continues to trade within the same broader range structure that has been in place for several weeks. The reaction from the $65,650 pivot confirms that buyers are still defending this zone, keeping the market supported in the short term.

For now, the primary focus remains on the $73,800 resistance. A confirmed break above this level would likely shift the stance from neutral to neutral-bullish and open the path toward the $79,140 region. On the other hand, a loss of $65,650 would weaken the structure and bring the $62,800-$59,800 region back into focus.

Ethereum

TA

Ethereum continues to mirror Bitcoin’s broader range-bound structure. Since the last analysis, price faced rejection from the $2,116 resistance area and rotated lower toward the support region between $1,957 and $1,900.

Ethereum tested this support band and managed to hold it, showing that buyers are still defending this zone. Following that reaction, price has bounced once again and is currently moving back toward the $2,116 resistance area.

This keeps Ethereum within the same tight consolidation range between $2,116 on the upside and the $1,900-$1,957 support band on the downside. As long as price continues to move within this structure, our stance remains neutral.

Only a strong daily close above the $2,150 region would confirm a breakout and open the path toward the next upside target near $2,368. On the downside, a break below $1,900 would expose the next support around $1,757.

RSI has recovered to the neutral region and currently sits around 50 with an average near 44. Meanwhile, the 200 EMA on the daily timeframe continues to slope slightly downward near $2,880, suggesting the higher timeframe structure remains under pressure.

Key Levels:

• Support: $1,900
• Resistance: $2,116
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $2,368
• Downside Target: $1,757

Chart: Ethereum Range Levels

Cryptonary’s Take:

Ethereum continues to trade inside the same range and is currently lacking a clear directional catalyst. Until we see a confirmed break of $2,116 or $1,900, the market remains in consolidation mode and our stance remains neutral.

Another important factor to watch is the ETH/BTC ratio. The pair continues to hover around the major support near 0.029, which we identified a few weeks ago. This is a crucial level for Ethereum, a breakdown below it would likely lead to further underperformance against Bitcoin. However, if ETH/BTC manages to bounce strongly from this region, it could signal the beginning of short-to-medium-term outperformance for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.

Solana

TA

Solana is within the same broader range structure that has been in place since the first week of February. Price has largely remained confined between $89 on the upside and $78 on the downside, with the $80.8 region acting as an intermediate support level inside the range.

In the previous analysis, Solana attempted a breakout above the $89 resistance, but the move lacked follow-through and quickly reversed back into the range. Following that failed breakout, price rotated toward the lower end of the structure and tapped the $80.8 support area before stabilizing.

Since then, Solana has shown a reaction from this support and is currently attempting to push higher once again within the range. While this suggests some short-term strength, the broader structure still requires confirmation before any sustained continuation can be expected.

For a confirmed breakout scenario, Solana would need to close above $93.18 on the daily timeframe. A successful breakout above that region would open the path toward the next upside objective near $106.9. Until then, price continues to trade inside the broader consolidation structure.

RSI remains stable around the neutral zone and momentum has improved slightly from the recent bounce. Meanwhile, the broader structure on the higher timeframes continues to show stabilization around the range lows.

Key Levels:

• Support: $78.12
• Resistance: $93.18
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $106.9
• Downside Target: $67.7

Chart: Solana Range Structure

Cryptonary’s Take:

Solana is currently attempting to build strength from the lower end of its range after holding the $80.8 support region. As long as price continues to hold above this area, the asset may attempt another breakout toward the $93 region.

Another important factor to look at is the SOL/ETH ratio. The pair continues to hold the key support near 0.042, which has historically acted as a strong demand zone. If SOL/ETH continues to bounce from this level, Solana could outperform Ethereum in the short to medium term, with the ratio having room to move toward the 0.046 resistance region.

Hyperliquid

TA

Hyperliquid has now broken above the $33.04 resistance area, which previously acted as the invalidation level for the neutral-bearish stance. This move shifts the short-term structure and suggests that the downside pressure we had been tracking earlier has now weakened.

Looking at the lower timeframe structure, the 4-hour chart shows that Hyperliquid has been forming a base above the 200 EMA since early February. Price recently printed a deviation below the 4H 200 EMA before reclaiming it and building a consolidation base. The breakout above $33 confirmed the initial strength coming out of this structure.

However, Hyperliquid is currently facing a strong resistance around $35.37. This region remains the key barrier for the asset in the short term. Until we see a decisive breakout above this level, price may continue to range between the $35.37 resistance and the $32.2-$33 support zone.

A confirmed breakout above $35.37 would validate a stronger continuation move and open the path toward the next upside target near $40. Until that happens, the stance shifts from neutral-bearish to neutral, with the market waiting for confirmation before a stronger directional bias is adopted.

RSI remains stable around 61 with average at 53 and the daily 200 EMA continues to sit near $32.2, acting as an important dynamic support level. As long as Hyperliquid holds above this region on daily closes, the structure remains constructive.

Key Levels:

• Support: $32.2
• Resistance: $35.37
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $40
• Downside Target: $30.64

Chart: Hyperliquid Breakout

Chart: Hyperliquid 4H Structure

Cryptonary’s Take:

The breakout above $33 confirms that Hyperliquid has shifted away from the previous downside structure and is now attempting to build a stronger base. The 4-hour structure also supports this view, with price consolidating above the 200 EMA and showing signs of accumulation.

For now, the market may continue to range between $33 and $35.37 while building momentum. A confirmed break above $35.37 would likely trigger continuation toward the $40 region, while holding above the broader swing low near $29.5 keeps the current potential bullish structure intact.

Aura

TA

Aura continues to trade around the same levels it has been for several weeks, with very little structural development visible on the chart. Price remains largely sideways, reflecting the broader consolidation across the market.

The potential bullish divergence we have been tracking still remains intact for now. However, the setup has not yet translated into any meaningful price expansion.

A key factor for Aura will likely be Solana’s relative strength. If Solana begins to outperform other majors, particularly Ethereum, we could see some strength spill over into high-beta ecosystem assets such as Aura.

RSI remains weak around 35 with an average near 36, while the 200 EMA continues to slope downward near $0.0417, indicating that momentum remains soft and the broader trend has not yet shifted.

Cryptonary’s Take:

Aura remains in a consolidation phase with the divergence setup still intact but unconfirmed. For now, the asset is largely dependent on broader ecosystem momentum, particularly from Solana. If Solana begins to show stronger performance relative to other majors, Aura could benefit from that spillover and see a potential upside reaction.

Total Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL)

TA

On the weekly timeframe, TOTAL is sitting at a very important technical area around $2.34T, which is the 200 EMA on the weekly chart. Price has been ranging around this level for roughly six weeks, highlighting how critical this region is for the broader market structure.

This area also aligns with the April 2024 swing low around $2.31T, creating a strong confluence zone between $2.31T-$2.34T. The fact that the market has repeatedly defended this region suggests it is acting as a key higher-timeframe support.

On the daily timeframe, TOTAL continues to base around $2.31T, remaining trapped inside a tighter range between $2.22T support and $2.46T resistance. This consolidation reflects the indecision we are currently seeing across the major crypto assets.

A daily breakout above $2.46T would be the key signal to watch. Such a move would likely trigger a broader expansion toward $2.72T, representing roughly a 10-12% upside move for the overall crypto market.

The invalidation for this constructive scenario would be a break below $2.22T, which would signal weakness and suggest the market is losing the broader support structure it has been defending.

Chart: TOTAL Market Cap Key Support

Chart: TOTAL Market Cap Daily Range

Cryptonary’s Take:

The TOTAL chart highlights how the broader crypto market is currently positioned at a major inflection point. Holding the $2.31T-$2.34T support region keeps the higher timeframe structure intact, but the market still requires a break above $2.46T to trigger a leg up. Until that happens, the market is likely to remain range-bound, with this level acting as the key trigger for a potential 10-12% market-wide move.

Closing Thoughts

Our neutral stance continues to hold for Bitcoin and Ethereum, as both assets remain inside their ranges without a confirmed breakout or breakdown. For Solana, we are looking at some potential outperformance now, as the asset is showing relatively stronger structure compared to other majors, particularly when looking at the SOL/ETH ratio. This relative strength keeps the possibility of upside continuation on the table if market conditions allow.

In the case of Hyperliquid, the previous neutral-bearish thesis was invalidated after the breakout above $33. We have reassessed the structure and now maintain a neutral stance with clear triggers, watching for confirmation of either a breakout or breakdown, although the current structure slightly leans toward an upside resolution.

Finally, the TOTAL market cap chart highlights an important trigger for the broader market. A confirmed break above $2.46T would likely open the path for a broader market expansion and potentially higher swings across the majors. For now, however, that move remains unconfirmed, and the market continues to trade inside its broader range.