Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment decisions. Virtual assets are volatile and may lose their value in full. Past performance does not indicate future results. Always do your own research.

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Quick bridge from earlier this week…

Tuesday’s stances played out as expected. Bitcoin rotated into the $65,650 support zone, Ethereum continues to compress around $1,957, Solana moved toward the lower end of its $89-$78 range, and Hyperliquid tested the $28.39 support area with only a weak breakdown attempt. Across the board, price has reached the mapped levels without delivering meaningful strength.

The key takeaway is that while supports are holding for now, the bounces lack conviction. Price is now sitting at critical zones, and the focus shifts to whether these supports continue to absorb pressure or finally give way. The broader macro backdrop adds weight to the downside case, refer to today’s Market Update for the Iran/Fed overlay shaping the current risk environment.

TLDR

• Risk Posture: Defensive
• Bitcoin: Weak relief bounce from $65.6K support, structure still fragile and neutral-bearish below $71K, with $62K next if support gives way.
• Ethereum: Hovering around $1,957 support, neutral-bearish while below $2,150, loss of $1,900 likely opens $1,752.
• Solana: Consolidating between $78 and $89, neutral bias, breakdown reopens $67.7, reclaim above $89 needed for $97.7.
• Hyperliquid: Holding $28.39 for now, bearish stance intact, sustained weakness targets $25.4 next.
• Aura: Structure largely unchanged, bullish divergence intact but needs broader market strength to confirm reversal.

Bitcoin

TA

Bitcoin continues to trade inside the same range between $65,650 support and $71,000 resistance. Price has once again rotated back to the range lows, respecting the lower boundary levels but without strong expansion away.

In the previous analysis, we expected a move toward $65,650 and that scenario played out. The level has been tapped, and while a short-term bounce has followed, the reaction is noticeably weaker compared to prior rebounds from this zone.

Repeated tests of the same support typically reduce its strength over time if we see lower highs being made post bounce. The current bounce lacks impulsiveness, which keeps the probability skewed toward an eventual breakdown.

As long as Bitcoin remains capped below $71,000, structure favors continuation lower. A decisive daily close showing weakness around $65,650 would likely open the path toward the next downside objective near $62,000.

The RSI is hovering around 35 with average at 33, still on the weaker side without meaningful expansion. The 200 EMA on the daily timeframe continues to slope downward near $92,700, reinforcing the broader bearish pressure in price.

Key Levels

• Support: $65,650
• Resistance: $71,000
• Direction: Neutral-Bearish
• Upside Target: $73,800
• Downside Target: $62,000

Bitcoin Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

Each bounce from $65,650 has been weaker than the last. The macro side isn’t helping either. DXY is up 1% this week on geopolitical safe-haven flow, ETF flows remain net negative, and the Fed minutes introduced rate hike language for the first time. No near-term catalyst to reverse the weakness.

$62K is the next objective. The $52K-$58K cost basis band sits below as the structural floor if broader risk-off accelerates.

Counter-case: a diplomatic resolution on Iran or a contained strike clears the uncertainty premium quickly. BTC would likely reclaim $71K and test $76K (potentially weekly range high at $79K). Until that happens, pressure stays to the downside.

Ethereum

TA

Ethereum is currently hovering right around the $1,957 support zone that we mapped out earlier. For the past four to five sessions, price has been tightly compressing around this level without meaningful expansion in either direction.

While $1,957 has not been decisively broken yet, price is gradually showing signs of weakness around it. Candles have started to close marginally below the level intraday, suggesting that support is being tested repeatedly and not strongly defended.

The overall structure over the past few days remains flat, but the inability to push meaningfully higher from support reflects lack of demand. If broader weakness in Bitcoin resumes, Ethereum is likely to follow with a sweep of the $1,900 liquidity zone.

Until resistance at $2,116 is reclaimed, the broader structure remains corrective. Downside pressure toward $1,752 remains the higher probability scenario under the current neutral-bearish stance.

RSI is hovering around 33 with an average near 32, reflecting continued weakness without bullish recovery. The 200 EMA on the daily timeframe continues to slope downward near $3,061, reinforcing the broader bearish backdrop.

Key Levels

• Support: $1,957
• Resistance: $2,116
• Direction: Neutral-Bearish
• Upside Target: $2,367
• Downside Target: $1,752

Ethereum Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

ETH is compressing at $1,957 but showing no demand response. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to bleed, meaning ETH is underperforming BTC on this leg down. That relative weakness suggests $1,752 could arrive faster than structure alone implies.

A sweep of $1,900 liquidity remains the base case. If BTC loses $65.6K at the same time, ETH likely doesn’t hold $1,900 and moves directly toward $1,752. Reclaim of $2,116 needed to shift the bias. Until then, ETH remains the weaker major.

Solana

TA

After rejecting cleanly from the $89 range highs, Solana has rotated back toward the lower boundary of its range. Price has not yet tapped the absolute range bottom at $78, but it is currently holding just above it at the higher-timeframe support level of $80.89.

The $80.89 level is acting as interim support, but it is not the primary structural floor, that remains at $78. Price is once again compressing near the lower boundary, consistent with the broader ranging behavior we’ve been tracking between $78 and $89.

There has been no decisive breakdown yet, but repeated rotation toward the lows keeps downside risk present. If broader market weakness resumes, a break below $78 would likely open the path toward $67.7 as the next downside objective.

On the upside, $89 remains the key resistance. A clean reclaim above that level would reopen $97.7, but until we see acceptance above range highs, consolidation remains the base case.

RSI is around 37 with an average near 32, slightly recovered from oversold but still on the weaker side. The 200 EMA on the daily timeframe continues to slope downward near $142.7, reinforcing the broader bearish backdrop.

Key Levels

• Support: $78
• Resistance: $89
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $97.7
• Downside Target: $67.7

Solana Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

SOL continues to range between $78-$89. The setup to watch: if price breaks below $78 but RSI holds above its prior swing low, that’s a bullish divergence and a tradeable long with $89 as the initial target.

Worth noting SOL’s relative strength. It’s holding its range while ETH grinds support. That tells you where flows would rotate on any broader bounce. Breakdown below $78 without divergence opens $67.7. Reclaim above $89 reopens $97.7. Until one triggers, neutral.

Hyperliquid

TA

For Hype, we expected a move toward $28.39 and ultimately a breakdown below it. Price did rotate into that support, wicked down to $27.7, but failed to secure a clean breakdown and instead bounced short term.

The $28.39 region has now acted as support for nearly a month. However, repeated testing of the same support typically weakens it over time.

If this current bounce fails to reclaim and hold above $30.64 and instead forms a lower high before rotating back toward $28.39, that would signal a weakening structure. A lower high followed by another test of support would significantly increase the probability of a breakdown.

A decisive break below $28.39 would open the path toward $25.4 as the next downside objective. If $25.4 fails, a move toward the low $20s becomes possible, which would then become a higher-timeframe reassessment zone.

RSI is hovering around 48 with an average near 52, showing no strong recovery. The 200 EMA on the daily timeframe is flattening around $32.5, reflecting stalled upward momentum.

Key Levels

• Support: $28.39
• Resistance: $30.64
• Direction: Bearish
• Upside Target: $33
• Downside Target: $25.4

Hyperliquid Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

If this bounce fails to reclaim $30.64 and rolls over into a lower high, the next test of $28.39 likely breaks it. Cleanest short setup across all assets covered today.

$25.4 is the first downside target, but that could be conservative if BTC loses $65.6K at the same time. HYPE’s beta to broader alt sentiment means downside accelerates in a risk-off move.

Invalidation: sustained hold above $33. Until then, bearish.

Aura

TA

Structure remains largely unchanged despite minor selling pressure over the past few sessions. The recent weakness appears more reactive to broader market uncertainty.

Price continues to compress, and there haveit been no major developments in the price action yet. The potential bullish divergence on the daily timeframe remains intact and is gradually strengthening as momentum stabilizes.

Aura remains dependent on broader market strength, particularly from Solana. Without expansion in majors and higher-beta flows returning, meaningful upside continuation remains less likely in the near term.

The 200 EMA on the daily timeframe continues to slope downward near 0.048, RSI is hovering around 33 with an average near 35, still on the weaker side and showing no confirmed momentum shift yet.

• Direction: Bullish

Aura Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

The bullish divergence setup for Aura is still technically valid, but confirmation will likely require strength from Solana and the wider market. Until broader momentum returns, price is likely to stay compressed. A broader risk-on shift would be the key catalyst for any meaningful expansion.

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Closing Thoughts

We are maintaining the same stance carried over from earlier this week across the majors. While we have seen small relief bounces from key support areas in Bitcoin and Hyperliquid, those bounces are progressively weaker. Price is reacting at support, but the lack of follow-through suggests underlying pressure is still building.

Given this structure, downside targets are gradually coming back into focus for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Hyperliquid. Solana remains the slight outlier, as it continues to range, a decisive break below $78 would be required to confirm broader downside continuation there. Until that occurs, SOL remains in consolidation mode, though still vulnerable if the majors weaken further.

Thesis remains unchanged. The base case leans toward downside continuation across BTC, ETH, and HYPE, with SOL the outlier in consolidation mode.

One development to monitor: if majors print new lows while RSI holds above prior swing lows, that would create bullish divergence setups across the board. SOL is currently closest to triggering this. We’ll flag it upon confirmation.

Until then, the path of least resistance is lower. Today’s Market Update covers the macro catalysts that could accelerate or reverse this. Read it alongside this piece.

Peace!