Quick bridge from last week…

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, Bitcoin was hovering above the untapped $74,000 level and we carried a neutral-bullish stance strictly for a relief rally, not as a broader directional shift. That relief never materialised. Instead, Bitcoin continued lower, broke below $74,000, invalidated the $70,000 hold, and moved directly into the next high-timeframe zone, the Monthly OB (order block) around $65,650. Price even deviated well below this level into sub-$60,000 territory mitigating the OB before bouncing back and reclaiming the order block opening on the daily timeframe, signaling strong demand at these discounted levels. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has also tapped and deviated below the weekly 200 EMA ($68,640), further reinforcing how stretched price has become.

Ethereum followed with clean breakdowns below key supports and is now also trading in deeply discounted territory, though any sustained ETH recovery remains dependent on Bitcoin holding. Solana executed its downside move precisely, tapping the $80 target, deviating sharply to $67, and then reclaiming $80, highlighting strong demand at that level. Hyperliquid continues to stand out, holding firmly above the daily 200 EMA near $33 without participating in the broader breakdown.

Overall, most downside liquidity targets across majors have now been hit, and we are seeing meaningful reactions from these levels. We’ve also added Bitcoin dominance back into focus, as it rejected from the exact zone we highlighted near the daily 200 EMA (59.9%) and is now approaching key breakdown levels. With that context set, we now move into today’s market direction to assess follow through and next scenarios.

So let's dive in!

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results

TLDR

• Bitcoin (BTC): Broke down into higher timeframe Monthly OB, deeply oversold now, relief bounce likely, but all upside moves remain corrective unless structure is reclaimed.
• Ethereum (ETH): Lost key supports and is trading near a major historical demand zone, oversold bounce possible but structure a bit weak.
• Solana (SOL): Completed downside liquidity sweep and reclaimed key levels at $80.8, neutral-bullish phase in play as long as this reclaimed support holds.
• Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): Rolling over from resistance and sitting on trend support, breakdown + BTC stabilizing would favor aggressive altcoin expansion.

Bitcoin

TA

Bitcoin is currently reacting from a major higher-timeframe zone, Monthly OB, after an aggressive downside continuation. Following the loss of $80,500, price did not stall at $73,800 or $70,000 and instead flushed straight into a monthly order block at $65,650, which was formed back in August 2024 and is being tested for the first time since its creation.

This move also coincided with Bitcoin tagging and briefly deviating below the weekly 200 EMA ($68,500), marking one of the deepest pullbacks of this cycle. While price wicked significantly lower during the flush, the reaction so far has been decent, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $65,650 monthly level, suggesting early demand response is there.

Structurally, Bitcoin has slipped back below a previously reclaimed downtrend resistance line that had capped price from October through December 2025. This trendline now sits overhead and must be reclaimed for upside continuation. As long as price remains below this zone, upside moves should still be treated as relief rallies.

On the higher timeframe, the broader monthly order block spans from $49,000 at the lows, with the midpoint around $57,300, making this entire region a high importance demand area. While deeper downside remains technically open if price loses acceptance above $65,650, the current positioning favors short-term upside reactions first.

RSI printed deep oversold readings near 15 during the sell off and has now begun to recover, currently hovering around the low 20s and average at 32. Both daily and weekly RSI remain oversold, creating conditions for continued mean reversion bounces, though sustainability will depend on follow-through above reclaimed levels.

Key Levels

• Next Support: $65,650
• Next Resistance: $68,700
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish (relief phase)
• Upside Target: $72,000
• Downside Target: $57,300 (monthly OB midpoint)

Bitcoin Price Action:

Cryptonary’s Take

Bitcoin has now flushed into a high confluence monthly demand zone, combining a first-time order block retest with a weekly 200 EMA tap + deviation and extreme RSI oversold conditions. This strongly favours short-term relief rallies, and as long as $65,650 holds on daily closes, upside extensions toward $68,700 and 72K remain likely.

That said, this is not a confirmed trend reversal. Until Bitcoin reclaims higher structural levels and invalidates the broader bearish structure, all upside moves should be treated as corrective relief rallies, with the risk of deeper continuation into the $57K region still present if acceptance above $65,650 fails.

Ethereum

TA

Ethereum has now completed a deep corrective leg into a major higher-timeframe demand region, mirroring Bitcoin’s broader market structure. Price has decisively broken below the previously tracked weekly demand zone and failed to hold multiple intermediate supports, confirming a full structural reset.

After losing the $2,116 region, Ethereum attempted to stabilize briefly before rolling over again and breaking below $1,957, which acted as the final short-term support. From there, price accelerated directly into the $1,752 zone, an area of high significance where Ethereum built a multi-week base in April-May 2025 before launching into the rally that eventually carried it to new all-time highs.

This places Ethereum back into a deeply discounted value area on higher timeframes. Importantly, the $1,752 region has now acted as an initial reaction zone, suggesting early demand interest. However, as with Bitcoin, this reaction alone does not confirm a trend reversal, only a potential relief phase.

Structurally, Ethereum remains below all key reclaimed levels from the prior uptrend. Any upside movement from here should therefore be viewed as corrective unless proven otherwise. A reclaim and acceptance above $1,957 would open room toward $2,116, which is the first level that meaningfully improves short-to-medium-term structure.

Daily RSI printed extreme oversold readings near 19 during the sell-off and has begun recovering, now hovering around 23 with average at 32. While still weak, this historically aligns with mean-reversion rallies, especially when price trades inside prior expansion bases such as the current zone. 200 EMA on the daily TF is far away from the price, which tells us how stretched this downside move is getting eventually.

Key Levels

• Next Support: $1,752
• Next Resistance: $1,957
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish (relief phase)
• Upside Target: $2,116
• Downside Target: $1,61

Cryptonary’s Take

Ethereum has retraced back into a cycle-defining demand zone, the same region that preceded its last major expansion. Combined with deeply oversold momentum conditions, this favors a short-term relief rally, with $1,957 and $2,116 as the first key reaction levels to watch.

That said, Ethereum is still structurally weak on higher timeframes. Only a sustained reclaim and base above $2,116 or higher would signal genuine medium-term improvement. Until then, upside moves should be treated as corrective relief, with downside risk reopening toward $1,612 if $1,752 fails to hold.

Solana

TA

When we last analysed Solana, price was hovering just above the $95 region, which was clearly identified as a higher-timeframe support zone. Our stance was neutral at the time for that exact reason. Since then, Solana broke below $95 and followed through cleanly into the next downside liquidity zone around $80, which had already been mapped as the primary downside level if $107 failed.

Intraday, Solana briefly deviated below $80 and printed a local low near $67, before sharply reversing and reclaiming $80.89, the exact level highlighted weeks ago as a key reaction zone. This reclaim is structurally important, as it signals acceptance back above the primary downside liquidity area after a deviation.

If Solana is able to secure a daily close above $80.89, the structure favors a short-to-medium-term relief continuation toward $95, which now acts as the first major resistance. A clean break and acceptance above $95 would then open room toward $107.15, but anything beyond that will require fresh confirmation and will be reassessed in real time.

On the downside, failure to hold $80.89 would reopen lower liquidity. Below the recent deviation low near $67, the next higher-timeframe downside target opens toward $58.56, which becomes the next meaningful support zone if selling pressure resumes.

RSI remains in extreme oversold territory on both daily and weekly timeframes with being at 24 on the daily, with average around 32, while the 200 EMA continues to slope downward well above price hovering at $151, confirming that current upside attempts should still be treated as relief rallies.

Key Levels

• Support: $80.89
• Resistance: $95
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish (relief phase)
• Upside Targets: $107.15
• Downside Risk:  $67 and $58.56

Solana Price Action:

Cryptonary’s Take

Solana has completed a textbook liquidity sweep below $80 and reclaimed its key downside level. Combined with extreme oversold momentum, this supports a neutral-bullish relief move as long as price holds above $80.89, with $95 as the natural upside magnet.

This is not a confirmed trend reversal. If Solana loses $80.89 again with acceptance, downside risk reopens first toward $67, and potentially $58.56. Until higher structural levels are reclaimed and held, upside moves should be treated as relief rallies, with conviction remaining dependent on broader market confirmation.

Hyperliquid

TA

Hyperliquid continues to show clear relative strength versus the broader market. After pulling back from the $35.37 region earlier this week, price has held the 200 EMA on the daily timeframe extremely well, which sits around the $32.89-$33.04 zone. This was the key area we highlighted in the previous analysis as the level that must hold to maintain upside structure, and so far, there has been no daily close below it.

The way Hyperliquid has defended the $33 region is notable, especially considering the magnitude of the pullback seen across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. While the wider market went through aggressive downside expansion, Hyperliquid remained structurally intact, consolidating above its key daily 200 EMA and not breaking down. This strengthens the case for relative outperformance, even if the broader market only moves sideways.

Given this behaviour, our stance now pivots from neutral-bullish to bullish on Hyperliquid. As long as price continues to accept above the $33 zone, pullbacks should be treated as healthy retracements. In a relief-rally environment across majors, Hyperliquid is well-positioned to lead on the upside, even in a slow or choppy market, it has shown the ability to decouple positively.

On the upside, a sustained move above $35.37 would signal continuation and open the path toward the $39.97-$40 region, which is the next major upside objective. This level aligns with prior expansion highs and remains the natural magnet if momentum accelerates again. On the downside, $30.64 is the key invalidation level, acceptance below that would weaken the current bullish structure and force a reassessment.

RSI is holding around 62 with an average near 59, reflecting strength without being stretched. At the same time, the 200 EMA is flat to slightly rising around $32.89, and price is respecting it cleanly, a constructive combination for continuation.

Key Levels

• Support: $33.00
• Resistance: $35.37
• Direction: Bullish
• Upside Target: $39.97
• Downside Risk: $30.64

Hyperliquid Price Action:

Cryptonary’s Take

Hyperliquid is behaving like a leader. Holding the 200 EMA on the daily during a broad market drawdown is a strong signal of demand, and this shifts the bias bullish. As long as $33 continues to hold, upside extensions toward $35.37 and $39.97 remain favored.

Only a loss of $30.64 would materially damage the structure. Until then, Hyperliquid remains one of the strongest setups in the market, with pullbacks best viewed as opportunities within a bullish framework.

A potential bearish divergence is also starting to form on Hyperliquid, with price making higher highs while RSI prints a lower high from the late-January highs. This is not confirmed yet, but it becomes relevant if price loses structure. A break below $30.64 would confirm the divergence and invalidate the current bullish thesis. As long as $30.64 holds, this remains only a risk to monitor, not an active signal, but definitely something to keep a note off.

Aura

TA

Aura’s price action remains unchanged since the previous analysis, with price continuing to hold the same compression range it has respected. Importantly, the potential bullish divergence structure remains intact, price has not invalidated it, and momentum has not made a fresh lower low despite continued pressure. This keeps the setup structurally alive.

Price has now been trading inside a very tight descending channel for nearly a month, dating back to early January about a month ago. This kind of prolonged compression typically precedes expansion, and the longer the range persists, the more meaningful the eventual move tends to be. A breakout from this channel, especially if aligned with momentum confirmation, would be the first technical signal that the current sell pressure is easing.

Aura’s next directional move is closely tied to Solana’s behaviour. With Solana having already tapped its $80 downside liquidity and showing signs of a short-term relief phase, any continuation or stability there could spill over into Solana-beta assets like Aura. That spillover is a key catalyst to watch for validating the divergence setup.

The 200 EMA on the daily timeframe continues to slope down near 0.054, keeping the higher-timeframe trend in pressure for now. RSI is hovering around 29 with the average also near 29, reflecting persistent oversold conditions. While this does not guarantee a reversal, it does support the case for mean reversion if price breaks out of its compression range.

Direction: Bullish

Action Plan: DCA and Raid

Aura Price Action:

Cryptonary’s Take

The bullish divergence structure is holding, compression is mature, and downside momentum is no longer expanding aggressively. If Solana sustains its relief move, Aura has room for a sharp mean-reversion rally.

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)

TA

Bitcoin dominance has delivered the rejection we were waiting for, rolling over sharply from the 200 EMA resistance zone near 59.9%. The drop has been clean and impulsive, with dominance shedding close to 2% in just a few sessions, confirming that supply at the upper band was active.

Price has now tapped 58.5%, which is a key inflection level. This area is not just horizontal support but also lines up with the yellow ascending trendline that BTC.D has respected since February 2024, making this a major confluence zone.

As long as BTC.D holds 58.5%, we can expect some stabilisation or short-term pauses. However, a decisive breakdown below 58.5% would be structurally significant and would indicate a loss of higher-timeframe trend support.

If 58.5% breaks, the next downside objective sits at 57.21%. Acceptance below that level would open the door toward 54.56%, which is a medium-term target, not an immediate one, and would imply a broader dominance unwind.

For this bearish dominance scenario to benefit alts meaningfully, Bitcoin itself needs to hold sideways or grind higher. A falling BTC.D alongside a stable or rising BTC price is the ideal environment for aggressive alt outperformance.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Cryptonary’s Take

The rejection from 59.9% has played out precisely as anticipated, and 58.5% is the line in the sand. A breakdown below this zone would strongly favour altcoin expansion, especially if Bitcoin avoids further downside volatility. If this support holds, dominance may consolidate, but the broader structure has already weakened, shifting the risk-reward in favour of alts going forward.

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Closing Thoughts

We can see that Bitcoin has already tapped the $65,000 area and is now showing decent reactive buying interest from these levels. There is visible demand stepping in, and other majors are also responding with similar reactions. Because of this, a relief rally is now on the table, and we already have clear upside levels marked across majors for this move.

That said, unless we see either a strong base formation on the downside or a decisive daily structural reclaim on the upside, these moves will continue to be treated as relief rallies, not trend reversals. If neither of those conditions materialises, downside targets can still come back into play over the coming weeks before a more durable bottom forms. Markets at this stage often move in sharp, fast phases, both up and down, and patience with structure is key.

Hyperliquid continues to stand out with clear relative strength versus the rest of the market. If we do see a relief rally unfold, Hyperliquid is likely to outperform, as it has already been doing. Solana has also done exactly what was expected, tapping the $80 downside target, deviating aggressively to sub-$67, and reclaiming $80, which highlights strong demand and urgency from buyers at these levels.

Finally, Bitcoin dominance is approaching a critical point. A clean breakdown below 58.5% could accelerate downside toward 57.2% and lower, which would be constructive for alts, as long as Bitcoin remains flat or trends higher. For now, the base case is a relief rally, and we’ll stay adaptive. In environments like this, price develops quickly, and the priority is to respond to structure, not force conviction.

Cryptonary Out!