Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Quick bridge from last week…

In the previous market direction, we maintained a neutral-bullish stance on Ethereum and Solana, with Bitcoin and Hyperliquid positioned neutrally while tracking key breakout levels. Since then, Ethereum has delivered its base case move into $2,400 from the range lows, completing the expected upside. Bitcoin has also broken out from its long-term downtrend trendline, although the breakout remains in early stages and still requires confirmation through sustained price action.

Solana continues to consolidate post-breakout with no clear follow-through yet, keeping price range-bound in the short term. Hyperliquid, on the other hand, has validated its conditional triggers and broken key resistance, leading to a reassessment and a shift toward a more constructive, neutral-bullish stance. Overall, while key setups have played out, the market remains in a transition phase with confirmations still developing across majors.

On the macro side, the backdrop remains uncertain but supportive in the short term. Despite US-Iran negotiations breaking down, risk assets have held up well, with Bitcoin maintaining strength near highs. Positioning remains constructive, but elevated oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions keep risks in place, suggesting any upside is likely a short-term relief move. For a deeper breakdown, refer to yesterday's Market Update.

Chart Title:

TLDR

• Risk Posture: Neutral-Slightly Constructive
• Bitcoin: BTC has broken above $73,800 and the long-term downtrend, shifting structure to neutral-bullish. However, the breakout is still early, and holding above $73k-$73.8k is key for continuation toward $79k-$83.7k. Failure to hold brings $70,500 back into play.
• Ethereum: ETH has completed its base case move from range lows to $2,400 and is now holding near resistance. The stance remains neutral-bullish, with continuation toward $2,630-$2,800 possible if strength holds, supported by ETH/BTC breakout.
• Solana: SOL continues to consolidate post-breakout, holding above $80.89. The stance remains neutral-bullish, with a move toward $89-$93.1 likely if $87 breaks, while a loss of support shifts focus back to lower levels.
• Hyperliquid: HYPE continues to show strong relative strength, breaking above $43.29 and shifting to a neutral-bullish stance now. As long as this level holds, continuation toward $50 and $57 remains the base case.
• Aura: AURA remains stable with improving momentum, with upside potential dependent on strength in Solana and the broader market.

Bitcoin

TA

Since the previous analysis, Bitcoin has tapped and broken above the $73,800 resistance/upside target and the long-term downtrend trendline, confirming the breakout we were tracking. Price is now trading above this region, shifting the short-term structure to a more constructive setup.

However, this breakout is still in its early stages. Price has only spent a limited amount of time above this level (2 sessions for now), and confirmation is still required. The key focus now is on whether Bitcoin can hold and build a base above the $73,000-$73,800 region on the daily timeframe.

As long as price continues to hold above this band and shows acceptance, the base case shifts toward continuation, with upside targets at $79,140 and potentially higher. This justifies a pivot from a neutral stance to a neutral-bullish stance in the short term.

At the same time, caution is required. There is a developing sell-side setup on the lower timeframes, and if price fails to hold above $73,800, the breakout risks failing. In that case, a move back toward $70,500 and a retest of the breakout region becomes likely, which would shift the stance back to neutral.

The 200 EMA continues to trend downward near $83,200, aligning with the higher upside target region, while RSI is around 62, showing strong momentum but still requiring confirmation through sustained price action.

Key Levels:

• Support: $73,800
• Resistance: $79,140
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $79,140 & $83,790
• Downside Target: $70,500

Chart Title:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Bitcoin has delivered the breakout we were waiting for, but the move is still very early and requires confirmation. The structure has shifted in the short term, but it is not yet fully validated.

Holding and building a base above $73,800 is key. If that happens, continuation toward higher levels becomes likely. However, failure to hold this region would quickly bring price back into the prior range. For now, the stance shifts to neutral-bullish, but with a reactive approach as price develops around this key level.

Ethereum

TA

Ethereum has delivered the upside move we were tracking, moving from the range lows around $2,116 into the $2,400 region. This was the base case, and it has now materialized, with price trading just below resistance after making a high just a couple of dollars shy of the level.

Price is currently holding near the highs, and there has been no meaningful rejection yet. As long as Ethereum continues to hold this region and does not show weakness, the structure remains constructive with potential for continuation from here.

If this strength sustains, we could see a move higher toward $2,630 as the next upside target, followed by $2,800. However, confirmation is still required through acceptance above current levels, especially around the $2,400 region.

On the downside, a rejection from this level would shift structure back into a range-bound environment, with potential rotation toward $2,170, bringing the broader range back into play.

The 200 EMA continues to trend downward near $2,666, while RSI is around 65, sitting in a healthy position and supporting the current strength in price.

Key Levels:

• Support: $2,170 & $2,116
• Resistance: $2,400
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $2,630 & $2,800
• Downside Target: $1,957

Chart Title:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Ethereum has completed its base case move into $2,400 and is now holding near resistance, which keeps the structure slightly bullish for now. The key here is whether price can maintain strength at these levels without showing rejection.

At the same time, the ETH/BTC ratio has broken out above 0.0315 and its short-term downtrend (from August 2025), indicating potential outperformance from Ethereum targeting 0.0346 as its initial upside target. If this ratio continues higher, it adds confluence to the upside case and increases the probability of a breakout above $2,400.

The stance remains neutral-bullish, with continuation expected as long as price holds. A rejection from this region would shift the stance back to neutral and bring the range back into play.

Solana

TA

Solana continues to consolidate on the daily timeframe, holding its base above the $80.89 support level after breaking out of the long-term downtrend trendline that had been in place since September 2025.

However, there has been no meaningful follow-through after the breakout. It has now been about a week since the breakout, and price has remained tight within a range between $80.89 support and the immediate resistance at $87.

This keeps the structure in a consolidation phase. As long as price continues to hold above $80.89, the base case leans slightly constructive, with expectations of a potential move higher once resistance is cleared.

A breakout above the $87 level would be the first step toward continuation, opening the move toward $89, followed by higher levels at $93.1 and potentially $100 if momentum builds. Until then, price remains in a tight range.

On the downside, a loss of $80.89 followed by a break below $78 would invalidate the current setup and shift structure back toward weakness, bringing $70 and $67.3 into focus.

The 200 EMA continues to trend downward near $119.2, reflecting broader weakness, while RSI is around 52, sitting in a neutral zone and showing stable momentum.

Key Levels:

• Support: $80.89 & $78
• Resistance: $87 & $89
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $93.1 & $100
• Downside Target: $70 & $67.3

Chart Title:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Solana remains in a post-breakout consolidation phase, with price holding support but lacking follow-through so far. The structure is still constructive as long as $80.89 holds.

A breakout above $87 would likely trigger the next leg higher, but until that happens, price remains range-bound in the short term. For now, the stance remains neutral-bullish, with confirmation dependent on continuation above resistance.

Hyperliquid

TA

Hyperliquid continues to show strong relative strength compared to the broader market, with price now breaking above the $43.29 resistance, which was the upper bound of the previous sell-side zone.

This breakout confirms a shift in short-term structure, with price moving out of the prior supply region and continuing its upside momentum. The previous resistance at $43.29 now flips into support, reinforcing the strength in the move.

As long as price continues to hold above $43.29, the base case remains for continuation toward $50, which is now the next key resistance and upside target. A sustained move above this region would open further upside toward $57 in the short to medium term.

On the downside, a loss of $43.29 would weaken the current structure and bring $39.97 back into focus as the next key level.

The 200 EMA continues to trend upward near $34.25, with price trading well above it, highlighting strong structure. RSI is around 70, approaching elevated levels, but still leaving some room for continuation before any signs of exhaustion.

Key Levels:

• Support: $43.29
• Resistance: $50
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $50 & $57
• Downside Target: $39.97

Chart Title:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Hyperliquid has confirmed strength with a clean breakout above $43.29, continuing its relative outperformance against the broader market which is something we might continue to see as the cycle progresses. The structure has now shifted firmly in the short term. As long as price holds above this breakout level, continuation toward $50 remains the base case, with further upside possible if momentum sustains.

The stance shifts to neutral-bullish for now, with focus on whether price can maintain strength above support and build toward the next leg higher.

Aura

TA

Aura continues to trade within a tight range, with no major structural shift yet, but price is starting to show signs of stabilization after a prolonged sideways phase.

Momentum has improved in the short term, with RSI recovering to around 53, moving back into neutral territory and showing early signs of constructive strength.

The broader move here remains dependent on Solana. With SOL potentially setting up for a move, Aura could see a higher beta reaction if strength comes through in the broader market.

The 200 EMA continues to trend downward near 0.0318, but price holding above current levels alongside improving RSI keeps the short-term outlook constructive.

Chart Title:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Aura is beginning to show early signs of strength, but the move is still dependent on Solana and broader market direction. If SOL sees continuation, Aura could follow with a sharper move given its higher beta nature. For now, the focus remains on monitoring Solana, with Aura positioned for a potential move if broader strength comes through.

Closing Thoughts

The market is starting to show constructive signs, with key breakout triggers now in play. For Bitcoin, the breakout above $73,800 is the key development, and the focus now shifts to whether price can hold and build a base above this level. As long as this holds, the base case remains for continuation toward $79k on the upside.

Ethereum has already delivered its initial upside move into $2,400, and further direction now depends largely on Bitcoin. If BTC holds strength above $73,800, Ethereum is likely to follow through and potentially break above $2,400, especially with the ETH/BTC ratio also breaking out, supporting relative outperformance. This also opens up the possibility of Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin for the medium-long term for this cycle if the ETH/BTC ratio continues to show strength, and potentially even outperforming Solana if this relative strength continues.

Solana continues to consolidate after its breakout, with continuation still awaited, while Hyperliquid has confirmed strength by breaking out of its supply zone and validating a neutral-bullish stance, with $50 as the next key level. Overall, the market structure is turning more constructive, but continuation now depends on key levels holding across majors.