Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Quick bridge from earlier this week…

Last week, our stance was neutral on Bitcoin and selectively constructive across majors. Since then, BTC pushed into key resistance, swept below local lows, and reclaimed back into the same weekly FVG it has been trading inside since mid-November. Direction remains unresolved, with price continuing to rotate and manipulate both sides of the range rather than trend.

Ethereum failed to hold the mid-range, flushed cleanly to the bottom of its range, and found strong demand there. From that base, ETH has bounced meaningfully and is now trading back near the same levels it was at during our last update, bringing 3,055 back into focus as the key decision level.

Solana is now showing a structure that closely resembles its March-April setup earlier this year, while Hyperliquid lost its initial bullish divergence, moved into higher-timeframe demand as expected post failure of the divergence setup, and has since reacted positively from that zone. With a few downside targets hit, the focus now shifts to whether the wider market can support continuation or remains choppy.

TLDR

• BTC: Range bound inside weekly FVG. Support at $86,400, resistance around $90,200. Neutral until a reclaim above $90,200 or a loss of $86,400.
• ETH: Holding demand after sweeping $2,800. $3,000-$3,055 is key resistance, reclaim keeps upside open toward $3,275-$3,430.
• SOL: Holding major support at $121-$126 (weekly 200 EMA). Bullish divergence in play, reclaim above $129-$130 opens $144.5.
• HYPE: Bounced from $21.5-$23.5 demand. Oversold RSI. Relief move toward $26.9-$28.3 on the table, structure improves only above $28.3.
• AURA: Rebounding after dipping below $0.03. Needs reclaim of $0.03 to stay constructive, otherwise remains in accumulation range.

BTC

TA

BTC still remains range bound inside the same weekly FVG, which has defined the price action over the past couple of weeks.

After defending the lower end of the FVG near $86,400, price pushed into $90,200 and faced rejection once again.

The rejection led to a brief daily close below the weekly FVG, but price quickly swept daily recent lows and reclaimed the FVG, pointing to a liquidity sweep below lows.

Short term structure remains unresolved. A 4H close above $89,500 would be the first signal of short-term strength returning.

Failure to hold the $86,400-$86,500 region again would weaken structure and reopen downside risk.

RSI dipped into the high 30s and is now recovering toward 43 with average around 43 as well, showing stabilization but no momentum expansion yet. The 200 EMA remains above price near $102,300, keeping BTC in a broader consolidation phase.

Key Levels

• Next Support: $86,400
• Next Resistance: $89,500
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $93,150
• Downside Target: $83,800

BTC Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

BTC remains range bound inside its weekly FVG, and recent price action reinforces that this is still a compression phase, not a confirmed trend shift. The downside sweep below the FVG was quickly reclaimed, suggesting liquidity was taken rather than structure breaking decisively.

For BTC to transition from neutral to neutral-bullish, we need confirmation, starting with a 4H close above $89,500, followed by acceptance above $90,200. That would signal supply absorption and open the path toward $93,150 and potentially the prior weekly high near $94,500.

Until then, BTC stays neutral. A loss of $86,400 would shift risk back to the downside toward $83,800 and possibly $80,500. For now, BTC is holding its higher timeframe range, and patience remains the edge.

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ETH

TA

ETH continues to trade inside the similar range, with the lower bound near $2,794 and upper resistance around $3,055.

After pushing toward the top of the range near $3,030, price faced rejection and flushed cleanly back to $2,794, where strong demand stepped in.

The bounce from $2,794 has been decisive, with ETH now trying to reclaim the upper half of the range once again, signaling that buyers remain active at lower levels.

ETH has been trading within a short term descending trendline since December 10, and price is now approaching the end of that compression.

A decisive close above $3,000, followed by acceptance above $3,055, would shift short-term structure and open upside toward $3,275 and $3,436.

RSI cooled from the high 30s and is now stabilizing near 45 with average around 47, showing momentum recovery without overheating. The 200 EMA near $3,430 is flattening, indicating consolidation.

Key Levels

• Next Support: $2,794
• Next Resistance: $3,000-$3,055
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $3,275
• Downside Target: $2,600

ETH Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

ETH continues to show relative strength compared to the broader market. Despite a sharp rejection near range highs, price respected the $2,794 support cleanly and reversed strongly, keeping the broader range structure intact.

At this stage, ETH remains neutral, but the chart is coiling toward a decision point. A clean reclaim and acceptance above $3,000-$3,055 would mark a short-term structure shift and likely attract momentum toward $3,275 and the range high near $3,436, where the 200 EMA also sits.

Failure to hold $2,794 would invalidate this setup and expose deeper downside toward $2,600 and potentially $2,500. Until either side resolves, ETH remains range-bound, but the reaction off support suggests upside resolution remains very much in play if confirmation comes.

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SOL

TA

SOL is trading at a major structural zone, aligned with the weekly 200 EMA, similar to the setup seen during March-April earlier this year.

Price structure is comparable to that period, where SOL spent time ranging at higher-timeframe support before a directional expansion followed.

SOL is once again forming a daily bullish RSI divergence, developing at the same weekly EMA support where the prior reversal occurred.

This confluence places SOL at a high importance decision zone, where short to medium term upside reactions are statistically favored if support holds.

A 4H and daily close above $129-$130 would be the first confirmation of strength, opening a move back toward the range high near $144.5.

RSI bounced from the low-30s and is now stabilising near 41 with average at 41, indicating improving momentum. The daily 200 EMA near $169 remains overhead resistance but could flatten quickly if price consolidates higher.

Key Levels

• Next Support: $121
• Next Resistance: $129-$130
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $144.5
• Downside Target: $107

SOL Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

SOL is sitting at a structurally important area, with the weekly 200 EMA and a daily bullish divergence aligning, much like the March-April base earlier this year. Historically, this combination has marked high probability zones for short to medium term reversals.

The key condition remains confirmation. Acceptance above $129-$130 would signal that buyers are stepping back in and that the current base is holding. If that occurs, a rotation back toward $144.5 becomes the natural next move, with momentum likely following.

Failure to hold $121 would invalidate this setup and expose deeper downside toward $107-$110. Until either scenario resolves, SOL maintains a neutral-bullish bias, with risk clearly defined and upside conditional on confirmation.

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HYPE

TA

A bullish RSI divergence had formed on HYPE, which initially led to a reaction into the first area of interest around $28.39.

That divergence ultimately resolved with further downside, driving price into the deeper demand zone between $21.5 and $23.5, which we had highlighted as the next area if the initial reaction failed.

HYPE printed a local low around $22.3, right within this demand zone, and has since started reacting higher from this area.

The current move appears to be a relief bounce from a deeply oversold condition rather than a confirmed trend reversal at this stage.

Structurally, price remains below the descending trendline resistance that has been in place since late October, keeping the broader trend capped for now.

RSI dipped to 26 during the sell off and is now recovering near 33 with average around 35, indicating oversold relief. The 200 EMA near $36.8 continues to remain well above the price.

Key Levels

• Next Support: $23.5
• Next Resistance: $26.9
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $28.3
• Downside Target: $21.5

HYPE Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

HYPE has now reacted cleanly from the $21.5-$23.5 demand zone, an area we had flagged as a deeper support if the earlier bullish divergence failed to hold. The bounce from $22.3 is constructive in the very short term, especially given the oversold RSI conditions.

That said, this remains a counter-trend reaction for now. The broader structure is still capped by the descending trendline and the inability to reclaim prior swing levels. A move toward $26.9-$28.3 is reasonable as part of this relief phase, but confirmation is required before shifting bias more aggressively.

For HYPE to transition from a reactive bounce into a proper bullish structure, a reclaim of $28.3 is essential. Until that happens, the stance remains neutral-bullish, favoring upside reactions from demand but respecting that the higher-timeframe trend has not yet flipped.

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AURA

TA

Aura saw a downside sweep alongside the broader market, with Thursday’s candle briefly breaking below the $0.03 support, but most of that move has already been retraced.

Price is now trading just below the $0.03 level, making this area a key reclaim zone for maintaining structure and avoiding further downside.

Momentum weakened into the sell off, but conditions are stabilising as downside pressure eases and price attempts to base again.

RSI dipped into oversold near 28 and is now recovering around 33 with average around 37, suggesting relief from oversold conditions. The 200 EMA near $0.071 remains largely unchanged.

• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Action Plan: DCA and Raid

AURA Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

Aura remains highly dependent on broader market direction, particularly Solana. A clean reclaim and hold above $0.03 would keep the accumulation structure intact and allow Aura to stabilise again. Failure to reclaim this level, however, would leave prices vulnerable to further consolidation.

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Closing Thoughts

Bitcoin remains the most indecisive chart in the market, stuck in a multi week range and offering little directional clarity. However, several short-term triggers on the 4H timeframe are approaching, and any clean reclaim could unlock short-term upside, particularly for BTC and SOL.

Ethereum and Solana remain the charts to watch for directional cues. ETH reclaiming 3,055 would materially improve market structure, while SOL’s higher timeframe support and historical analogue keep it positioned for a potential upside rotation if momentum returns.

Hyperliquid and Aura are now reactive rather than leading. Both have reached key downside areas and are responding, but continuation depends on broader market support.

On the macro side, the Bank of Japan delivered its expected rate hike, but forward guidance came in more conservative and mildly dovish than feared. Markets were largely priced for the hike, and the softer guidance helped risk assets stabilise post decision.

As liquidity thins into the year end holiday period, price moves may become more exaggerated even on relatively low volume. Most major levels are now being tested across assets, meaning the next few sessions should offer clearer directional resolution.

Cryptonary, OUT!