Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Quick bridge from last Friday…

In the last update on Friday, we maintained a neutral stance on Bitcoin and a neutral-bullish bias across most majors. Since then, the market did not hold those higher support levels. Bitcoin broke below $90,200 during Sunday’s sell-off, dragging the broader market lower with it. However, despite the breakdown, BTC defended the weekly FVG, briefly wicking lower before closing back inside the range, keeping higher timeframe structure technically intact for now.

Ethereum followed a similar path. While ETH held above $3,055 for most of the week, Monday’s sell off pushed it below that level, placing price back inside a lower range. Solana remains supported at the $126 region, though the rounding bottom structure we were tracking has weakened. Hyperliquid, despite volatility, continues to hold its bullish RSI divergence from last week.

Today’s analysis focuses on whether these defended demand zones can continue to hold, particularly for BTC inside the weekly FVG, ETH around $3,055, and whether HYPE’s divergence remains valid in the coming sessions.

TLDR

• BTC: BTC is defending the weekly FVG after a break below $90,200. Structure remains neutral unless price reclaims $90,200-$93,150 or breaks down below $86,400.
• ETH: ETH is ranging between $3,055 and $2,794 after rejecting $3,436. Bias stays neutral, with direction decided around $3,055.
• SOL: SOL is holding the range bottom at $126. Structure is neutral, with $121 as the next downside risk.
• HYPE: HYPE is sitting at critical support around $27 while bullish RSI divergence remains intact. Bias is neutral-bullish as long as $27 holds.
• AURA: AURA continues to consolidate in the $0.03-$0.035 accumulation zone. The structure remains neutral-bullish while this base holds.

BTC

TA:

Since the last update, BTC lost the $90,200 support on Sunday after holding it for most of the week, triggering a downside sweep into the lower end of the weekly FVG.

Price wicked as low as the $85,000 region but was able to reclaim the weekly FVG and close back inside it, stabilising around $86,300-$86,400.

This reclaim keeps the higher-timeframe structure intact for now, but BTC has clearly shifted into a range-repair phase rather than immediate continuation.

On the upside, $90,200 has now flipped into resistance, with $93,150 acting as the next upside objective only if that level is reclaimed with a strong close.

Momentum has weakened, RSI has slipped to around 40 with average around 44, and the 200 EMA near $102,800 continues to slope slightly downward, reflecting broader corrective pressure.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $86,400
• Next Resistance: $90,200
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $93,150
• Downside Target: $83,800

BTC Price Action:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Bitcoin remains neutral as long as it continues to defend the weekly FVG and hold above $86,400. The recent flush looks more like a liquidity sweep than a confirmed breakdown, but BTC has not yet done enough to re-establish bullish momentum.

A daily close back above $90,200 would be the first step toward stabilisation, with $93,150 acting as the real validation level. Without that, upside attempts are likely to face supply.

If BTC loses $86,400 with a decisive close, structure weakens quickly and opens the path toward $83,800, with $80,500 becoming a realistic downside liquidity target. Until either side of the range resolves, BTC remains in consolidation rather than trend.

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ETH

TA:

After rejecting from $3,436, ETH sold off aggressively and moved back toward the lower end of its range.

Although ETH held $3,055 for most of the previous week, Monday’s sell off pushed price below that level, shifting it from support to now a near-term resistance.

ETH is now trading around the mid-range, between $3,055 (range high) and $2,794 (range low), while wicking below the December 7 swing low, indicating active liquidity sweeps rather than clean continuation to the downside.

If ETH can stabilise here and print a decisive bullish close, a move back toward $3,055 becomes likely, where structure will be reassessed for either a flip or another rejection.

Momentum has cooled meaningfully. RSI has pulled back to around 42 with average at 49, after recently touching the low 60s, reflecting consolidation.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $2,794
• Next Resistance: $3,055
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $3,280
• Downside Target: $2,620

ETH Price Action:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Ethereum is currently at a decision zone, trading between its key range boundaries after failing to hold above $3,055. The recent downside move looks more like a liquidity sweep than a structural breakdown, but ETH has not yet reclaimed the level needed to regain upside control.

A clean reclaim and base above $3,055 would shift bias back toward the upside and open the path toward $3,280, with higher levels coming into focus later. Until that happens, ETH remains range-bound.

If price is rejected again at $3,055, downside risk increases toward $2,794, with $2,620 acting as the next meaningful support. For now, neutrality is warranted until ETH clearly resolves this range.

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SOL

TA:

The rounding bottom structure we were tracking over the past few days has temporarily broken down, and SOL has rotated back to the lower end of its broader range.

Price dipped toward $123, but importantly managed a decisive daily close back above $126-127, indicating that buyers are still active at the range bottom.

$126.15 remains the key structural support. As long as this level holds on a closing basis, SOL stays range-bound rather than breakdown-driven.

Given the size of the range, upside progress is likely to be choppy, with initial rejection expected around the $132-133 region, which previously acted as an intermediate support zone.

A sustained reclaim of the mid-range would be required before SOL can meaningfully challenge the upper band near $144.5.

Momentum remains muted. RSI is hovering near 40 with avg around 43, still range-bound. The 200 EMA near $170 slopes slightly downward, keeping higher-timeframe pressure intact unless price reclaims $144.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $126.15
• Next Resistance: $132–133
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $144.5
• Downside Target: $121

SOL Price Action:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Solana is currently back at range support, and while the rounding bottom structure has paused, price action has not broken down decisively. The strong close back above $126 keeps SOL in consolidation for now.

The immediate focus is on whether SOL can stabilise above $126-127 and reclaim the mid-range. Failure to do so keeps upside capped near $132-133, with sellers likely active at those levels.

If $126 fails on a daily close, $121 becomes the next key downside level. A breakdown below $121 would expose SOL to a deeper move toward $107-110, which defines the clear bear-case scenario. Until then, SOL remains neutral and range-bound.

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HYPE

TA:

Following last week’s analysis, HYPE initially reclaimed and held above $28.3, but selling pressure returned on Monday, pushing price below that level and wicking down toward the $26 region.

Despite this move, the bullish RSI divergence remains intact, though it has extended in time. This keeps the setup valid, but increasingly conditional on price holding current levels.

$27 is the key line of sand. HYPE needs to close daily candles above this level and begin grinding back toward $28-28.3 for the divergence to stay intact.

Failure to reclaim $27 on a closing basis would weaken the divergence materially and raise the probability of a deeper downside continuation.

Any upside traction will remain dependent on broader market stability, as HYPE has shown sensitivity to wider risk-off moves.

Momentum is weak but stabilising. RSI sits around 34 with average around 38, and continues to show bullish divergence. The 200 EMA near $37.2 is flat, suggesting consolidation rather than trend continuation.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $27
• Next Resistance: $28.3
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $30.64
• Downside Target: $23.5

HYPE Price Action:

Cryptonary’s Take:

HYPE is currently sitting at a critical zone. The bullish divergence has not failed yet, which keeps a neutral-bullish bias valid for now, but price must defend $27 decisively for the setup to remain actionable.

If HYPE can stabilise above $27 and push back toward $28.3, the path toward $30.64 reopens, especially if the wider market begins to consolidate or recover. A close above $28.3 would materially strengthen the bullish case.

Conversely, sustained closes below $27-26 would likely invalidate the divergence and expose $23-21 as the next downside zone. Until that happens, HYPE remains a conditional long-bias setup, heavily dependent on both structure and broader market tone.

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AURA

TA:

Aura has been holding the broader $0.03-$0.035 region for nearly two weeks, even through the recent wider market sell-off, indicating persistent demand in this zone.

The pullback toward the lower end of this band appears corrective rather than impulsive, keeping price action firmly within its established accumulation range.

The 200 EMA remains well above current price around $0.073, reinforcing that this phase is still a base-building process.

RSI has cooled to around 31 with avg around 40, reflecting short-term weakness but aligning with historical accumulation behaviour at these levels.

• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Action Plan: DCA and Raid

AURA Price Action:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Aura continues to trade inside a well defined accumulation band, with price respecting the lower end of the range despite broader market volatility. The ability to hold this zone during risk-off conditions adds confidence that selling pressure might be getting absorbed rather than accelerating.

From a positioning standpoint, the structure remains neutral-bullish. As long as Aura stays within this accumulation range, the bias remains constructive, with upside expansion likely once market conditions improve and momentum begins to rotate back into higher-beta names.

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Closing Thoughts

Markets are currently sitting at important higher-timeframe demand zones, not in full breakdown. Bitcoin remains inside its weekly FVG, Ethereum is hovering around the middle of its range, Solana is holding the weekly 200 EMA and $126 support, and Hyperliquid continues to protect its bullish divergence on the daily timeframe.

If BTC and ETH can stabilize from here, we could see select setups play out, particularly Hyperliquid pushing back toward $28-$30 and Solana attempting to reclaim the middle of its range. For Ethereum, $3,055 remains the line of sand, a reclaim opens upside potential, while rejection keeps $2,800-$2,600 in play.

Bitcoin remains the anchor. As long as $86,400 holds, structure stays neutral. A loss of that level would expose $83,800-$80,500, while a reclaim of higher resistance would shift sentiment back toward recovery. For now, this remains a reaction zone, not a confirmation zone.

Cryptonary Out!