---

Quick bridge from earlier this week…

In the previous analysis, we maintained a neutral-bullish stance across majors, and since then, Bitcoin has finally tapped the $79,140 upside liquidity target. However, there has been no strong acceptance or rejection at this level yet, keeping the structure undecided in the short term. Ethereum continues to hold just below $2,400, but the consolidation is improving, with price showing strength and increasing the probability of a breakout. Solana remains range-bound but the structure looks more constructive than before, while Hyperliquid has shown strength by holding its key support, leading us to pivot our stance.

We have also introduced Total Market Cap back into the analysis, as it still has pending upside liquidity at $2.65T-$2.72T, unlike Bitcoin which has already tapped its highs. This divergence suggests there may still be room for the broader market to push higher, potentially allowing altcoins to outperform in the next leg if momentum sustains.

Macro remains mixed with the US-Iran tensions unresolved and a deadlock around the Strait of Hormuz keeping oil above $100, sustaining inflation pressure. Despite this, risk assets are holding up, with Bitcoin supported by flows like ETF inflows and negative funding. BTC is now approaching the key $78k-$82k on-chain resistance zone, which has historically acted as a rejection area. While this opens the door for further upside in the near term, this remains a critical inflection zone for price. For a deeper breakdown, refer to yesterday's Market Update.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment decisions. Virtual assets are volatile and may lose their value in full. Past performance does not indicate future results. Always do your own research.

TLDR

• Risk Posture: Neutral-Constructive
• Bitcoin: Has tapped the $79,140 upside liquidity, now sitting at a key decision point. A strong weekly close above this level opens the path toward $83,790, while a deviation and rejection would trigger a reassessment of the current neutral-bullish outlook.
• Ethereum: Consolidating just below $2,400 with strength. A breakout remains likely if BTC holds, with $2,630 and $2,800 as next targets.
• Solana: Still compressing below $87-$89 in an ascending structure. Breakout confirmation needed, but setup remains constructive for a move toward $93-$100.
• Hyperliquid: Strong reclaim of $39.97 keeps structure intact. Rotation toward $43.29 likely, with continuation toward $45-$50 if resistance breaks.
• Aura: Momentum improving while holding range. High beta setup, likely to outperform if/when Solana confirms breakout.
• Total Market Cap: Holding strong above $2.46T after breakout. Upside targets at $2.65T-$2.72T remain pending, supporting continued market strength and potential altcoin upside.

Bitcoin

TA

• Bitcoin has now tapped the first upside liquidity target at $79,140, a level we’ve been tracking for several weeks. This marks a move into the upper bound of the broader weekly range that price has been trading within for over two months.
• So far, there has been no strong continuation or manipulation beyond this level, price has simply tapped it. This means there is no confirmed structural shift yet, and the market is now at a key decision point.
• The next move will largely depend on how price behaves around this region on the weekly close. A strong close above $79,140 would signal acceptance and open the path toward $83,790 as the next upside target. On the other hand, a deviation above this level followed by rejection would indicate a potential liquidity grab, which could lead to a reassessment of the current stance and bring downside scenarios back into play.
• As long as price continues to hold structure and does not show weakness, the stance remains neutral-bullish, with continuation still the base case.
• On the downside, $73,800 remains the key support level, while $70,500 stands as the next downside target if weakness develops.
• The 200 EMA continues to flatten around $82,500, aligning closely with the $83,790 region and forming a strong confluence zone where price may react. RSI is around 65, still below overbought territory, suggesting there is room for further upside if momentum sustains.

Key Levels:

• Support: $73,800
• Resistance: $79,140
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $83,790
• Downside Target: $70,500

Cryptonary’s Take:

Bitcoin has reached the key upside level, but the real signal now lies in how price behaves around it. A simple tap does not confirm continuation, the market needs to show acceptance for the move to extend. At the same time, RSI is showing a bearish divergence just below the overbought zone, which calls for a bit of caution in the short term.

This is a classic decision zone. Either price builds above and pushes higher, or we see a rejection that shifts sentiment quickly. The structure remains intact, but this is the level that will give us direction for the next leg of the market.

Ethereum

TA

• Ethereum continues to consolidate just below the $2,400 resistance, with price holding firmly in the upper half of the range between $2,400 at the top and $2,170-$2,116 at the bottom. Importantly, price is maintaining above the mid-range around $2,250, which reflects underlying strength and suggests buyers are still in control.
• Unlike previous attempts, there are no aggressive rejections from $2,400 so far. Instead, price is compressing just below resistance, which typically indicates absorption. As long as this structure holds, the base case remains continuation on the upside.
• A confirmed breakout above $2,400 with a strong daily close would open the path toward $2,630, followed by $2,800 as the next upside targets. On the downside, $2,170 and $2,116 remain the key support levels, with $1,957 as the broader downside target if the range breaks lower.
• The 200 EMA continues to slope downward and is now positioned around $2,630, aligning closely with the first upside target. This creates a strong confluence zone where price may face resistance if reached. RSI has cooled off to around 55, holding above neutral, which is constructive and leaves room for expansion if momentum builds post-breakout.
• From a relative strength perspective, the ETH/BTC ratio is currently retesting its breakout from the short-term downtrend and is attempting to hold the 0.03 region. If this level holds and we see strength build, it would support Ethereum breaking above $2,400 and potentially outperforming Bitcoin in the short to medium term. A failure to hold here, however, could result in Ethereum stalling below resistance while Bitcoin continues to lead.

Key Levels:

• Support: $2,170 & $2,116
• Resistance: $2,400
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $2,630 & $2,800
• Downside Target: $1,957

Cryptonary’s Take:

Ethereum isn’t showing weakness at resistance, it’s showing patience. The way price is holding just below $2,400 without rejection keeps the structure constructive.

The key trigger remains the breakout. If it comes with confirmation, the move could be sharp given the room on RSI and improving relative strength dynamics.

At the same time, ETH/BTC becomes critical here, if that holds and turns higher, it adds another layer of conviction to the upside case.

Solana

TA

• Solana continues to consolidate below the $87 resistance after the failed breakout attempt, but the broader structure remains constructive. Over the past month, price has been forming an ascending triangle, consistently putting in higher lows while facing repeated resistance at $87, indicating underlying demand building beneath the surface.
• This compression below resistance suggests that the market is preparing for a potential breakout, but confirmation is still pending. As long as the ascending structure remains intact, the bias stays tilted to the upside, with price continuing to coil just below the key resistance zone of $87-$89.
• A clean breakout above $87, followed by a sustained move and daily acceptance above $89 (on the daily timeframe), would confirm the structure and likely trigger a momentum expansion toward $93.1 and $100. Until then, the move remains unconfirmed and within a broader consolidation phase. On the downside, a breakdown of the ascending structure would shift focus back toward $80.89 and $78.17.
• The 200 EMA continues to trend downward around $116, reflecting the broader higher timeframe pressure, while RSI sits around 52 in the neutral zone. This positioning is constructive, as it leaves ample room for momentum to expand if a breakout occurs, supporting the case for a stronger move once confirmation comes in.

Key Levels:

• Support: $80.89 & $78.17
• Resistance: $87 & $89
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $93.1 & $100
• Downside Target: $67.8

Cryptonary’s Take:

Solana is building pressure just below resistance, and the structure is starting to look like a classic pre-breakout setup. The repeated higher lows show buyers stepping in earlier on every dip, which is typically how these moves develop before expansion.

That said, until resistance is cleared with conviction, this remains a setup, not a confirmed move. The focus here is simple: watch for acceptance above $89. If that comes through, Solana could quickly shift gears and start catching up with the broader market strength.

Hyperliquid

TA

• Hyperliquid has successfully defended the $39.97 support region, even after a brief deviation below it. That downside move was quickly reclaimed, and price is now back above support, indicating that sellers were unable to sustain pressure below the level. This reclaim strengthens the validity of $39.97 as a key demand zone in the current structure.
• With the low now protected, the structure shifts back toward a constructive outlook. As long as price continues to hold above this region, the base case leans toward a move back toward range highs. The immediate resistance to watch remains $43.29, and a break above this level would open up continuation toward $45 and eventually $50.
• On the downside, the key invalidation lies below $38.94. A sustained move below this level would weaken the structure and shift focus toward $35.37, with further confluence coming from the 200 EMA just below that zone. Until that happens, the current structure remains intact and supportive of higher prices.
• The 200 EMA continues to trend upward and sits below price around $34.97, reinforcing the broader bullish structure and acting as a strong dynamic support zone. RSI has reset back to neutral around 52 after the previous upside move, which is constructive and provides room for another leg higher if momentum returns.

Key Levels:

• Support: $39.97
• Resistance: $43.29
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $45 & $50
• Downside Target: $35.37

Cryptonary’s Take:

Hyperliquid handled the downside test well, the quick reclaim after the deviation tells you demand is still active at lower levels.

Now the focus shifts back to whether price can rotate toward the highs again. If $43.29 gets cleared, the move could extend relatively quickly given the reset in momentum. As long as the recent low holds, there’s no reason to lean bearish. The structure is giving it another shot at the upside.

Aura

TA

• Aura continues to consolidate without any decisive breakout yet, but the structure is gradually stabilizing. Price is no longer showing weakness and is holding steady, suggesting that selling pressure has reduced compared to previous phases.
• Momentum has improved meaningfully, with RSI now holding above the 50 level at around 56. This shift above neutral indicates strengthening underlying momentum, especially when compared to the weaker conditions seen over the past couple of months.
• The key driver for Aura remains Solana. With SOL setting up constructively, any confirmed breakout there could translate into a sharper move in Aura due to its high beta nature. If broader strength continues, Aura is well-positioned to outperform on a relative basis.

Cryptonary’s Take:

Aura isn’t leading right now, but it’s quietly setting up in the background. The structure is stable, momentum is improving, and it’s sitting in a position where it can react quickly if the trigger comes. If SOL confirms its breakout, Aura likely accelerates.

Total Market Cap

TA

• Total market cap continues to show strength after successfully breaking above the $2.46T level and holding it on the retest. This confirms the breakout and establishes $2.46T as a strong base, with price now trading in the upper half of the current range.
• Despite Bitcoin already tapping its weekly liquidity, total market cap still has unfinished business on the upside. The higher timeframe liquidity targets at $2.65T and $2.72T remain unfilled, which keeps the broader upside bias intact for the market.
• Price is currently positioned well within the range, and as long as it holds above the breakout region, the structure supports continuation toward these higher targets. A move into $2.65T would be the next logical step, with further expansion possible if momentum sustains.
• The broader implication of this setup is important, as total market cap pushes higher toward its pending liquidity, it increases the probability of altcoins seeing continued upside, especially if Bitcoin begins to stabilize near highs.
• The 200 EMA on the daily timeframe sits around $2.77T, aligning with the upper target zone and acting as a potential area for resistance. RSI is currently around 63, still below overbought levels, indicating there is room for another leg higher before momentum becomes stretched.

Cryptonary’s Take:

Total market cap hasn’t completed its move yet, and that’s the key takeaway here. While Bitcoin has already tagged its highs, the broader market still has room to run.

This is where things get interesting, if total continues pushing toward its pending targets, that’s typically when you see stronger participation from alts. The structure supports that idea for now.

Closing Thoughts

The key level remains $79,140 on Bitcoin. This is now the decision point for the market. A strong weekly close above this level would confirm continuation and support the bullish thesis across assets, opening the door for higher targets. On the other hand, a deviation above this level followed by rejection would force a reassessment of the current outlook and potentially shift the bias back toward the downside.

The structure remains constructive still. Ethereum is building pressure below resistance, Solana is stabilizing, Hyperliquid has reclaimed strength, and Total Market Cap still has unfinished upside. As long as these conditions hold, the base case remains for continued upside, but confirmation from Bitcoin at current levels is critical.

Cryptonary, OUT!