Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Quick bridge from last Friday…

Market structure has remained largely unchanged since last week, but price behaviour has turned more defensive. Bitcoin and Ethereum both pushed into their respective resistance zones, BTC at $90,200 and ETH at $3,055, and rejected cleanly from those levels, failing to achieve any meaningful acceptance above them. Repeated rejections at resistance suggest persistent overhead supply and indicate that upside attempts are still being sold and the supply isn't getting absorbed just yet.

Solana continues to reinforce this bias. Price has been unable to accept above $126, closing repeatedly around the $125 region over the past several sessions. This tight clustering of closes reflects growing indecision, but importantly, breakouts continue to fail while pullbacks find bids, keeping price compressed and range bound. Momentum remains capped, and any strength so far has lacked follow-through.

Overall, while higher-timeframe structures remain intact, the market is showing signs of exhaustion near resistance. With year end approaching and liquidity thinning into the holiday period, choppy, range bound conditions are likely to persist. Until clear acceptance occurs above the mentioned levels, directional conviction remains limited, making patience more valuable than forcing trades as markets drift into Christmas and New Year.

TLDR

• BTC: Still range bound with some bearish pressure. Rejected near $90.2k, holding above $86.4k weekly FVG. Needs acceptance above $90.2k to shift bias.
• ETH: Rejected from $3,055, rotating back toward range mid. Support zone $2,870-2,794. RSI stabilising around 45. Direction hinges on reclaim vs rejection at $3,055.
• SOL: Holding higher-timeframe support near $121-126. Daily & 3D bullish divergence intact, but acceptance above $126 and $130 needed for follow through. Below $121 opens $107.
• HYPE: Consolidating $24-25 after bounce from $21.5-23.5 demand. RSI at 35, still weak. Break above $26.9 needed for continuation.
• AURA: Tight consolidation below $0.03. Awaiting broader market/SOL strength for expansion.

TLDR:

• BTC: Still range bound with some bearish pressure. Rejected near $90.2k, holding above $86.4k weekly FVG. Needs acceptance above $90.2k to shift bias.
• ETH: Rejected from $3,055, rotating back toward range mid. Support zone $2,870-2,794. RSI stabilising around 45. Direction hinges on reclaim vs rejection at $3,055.
• SOL: Holding higher-timeframe support near $121-126. Daily & 3D bullish divergence intact, but acceptance above $126 and $130 needed for follow through. Below $121 opens $107.
• HYPE: Consolidating $24-25 after bounce from $21.5-23.5 demand. RSI at 35, still weak. Break above $26.9 needed for continuation.
• AURA: Tight consolidation below $0.03. Awaiting broader market/SOL strength for expansion.

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Bitcoin (BTC)

TA:

Bitcoin continues to trade inside the same multi week range and remains directionless. Since the last update, price once again pushed into the $90,200 resistance zone but failed to hold above it.

The move above $90,200 briefly swept liquidity toward $90,500 before reversing and closing lower, confirming this area as active supply rather than acceptance.

BTC was the only major to sweep the previous week’s high, while ETH and SOL did not. This relative behavior points to localized sell pressure rather than broad market strength here.

Despite the rejection, price has not broken down decisively and remains within the broader range, keeping structure technically intact but unresolved.

Momentum remains flat with RSI hovering around 43 and the average at 43, while the 200 EMA sits near $101,800 and continues to slope slightly lower, reflecting persistent overhead pressure.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $86,400
• Next Resistance: $90,200
• Direction: Neutral-Bearish
• Upside Target: $93,150
• Downside Target: $83,790

BTC USD – Daily Price Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Bitcoin still remains the most indecisive chart among majors. Repeated failures at $90,200, combined with a liquidity sweep above prior highs, suggest sellers are still active at range resistance.

While structure has not broken decisively, BTC is also not showing strength. Downside liquidity at $83,790 remains untapped, and as long as price stays capped below $90,200, downside scenarios remain valid.

A meaningful shift only comes with acceptance above $90,200 followed by continuation beyond $93,150. Until then, BTC remains range bound with a slight bearish skew, likely continuing to rotate liquidity rather than trend cleanly.

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Ethereum (ETH)

TA:

Ethereum bounced strongly from the bottom of the range at $2,794, confirming that buyers are still active at lower bounds of the structure.

The rebound carried price back into the key resistance zone at $3,055, where ETH briefly pushed higher and printed a local high near $3,079.

That move failed to hold. ETH rejected from $3,055 and closed back below the prior session’s high, confirming this level as active supply.

Following the rejection, ETH is vulnerable to a short-term pullback. A 4H fair value gap sits below with a midpoint around $2,870, which becomes the first downside target if pressure persists.

RSI has recovered from the mid-30s and now hovers around 45 with the average near 46, while the 200 EMA remains elevated around $3,400, keeping broader trend pressure overhead.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $2,870
• Next Resistance: $3,055
• Direction: Neutral-Bearish
• Upside Target: $3,275
• Downside Target: $2,794

ETH USD – Daily Price Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

Ethereum’s rejection at $3,055 is technically meaningful. While the bounce from $2,794 was strong, ETH has once again failed to convert range resistance into support, leaving structure unresolved.

As long as price remains below $3,055, downside exploration toward $2,870, and potentially a retest of $2,794 remains on the table. The market now needs to show whether this pullback is absorption or the start of another rotation lower inside the range.

A clean reclaim and hold above $3,055 would immediately neutralise the bearish bias and reopen upside toward $3,275. Until that happens, ETH remains vulnerable to range bound movements.

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Solana (SOL)

TA:

Since the last update, Solana has repeatedly closed around the $125 area on the daily TF with no meaningful expansion or breakdown.

Price has been unable to accept above the $126 level, repeatedly wicking above it but failing to secure daily closes, confirming $126 as active higher-timeframe resistance.

Despite bullish divergence forming on the daily and 3-day timeframes, follow-through has been absent so far, keeping the setup incomplete.

For the bullish divergence to activate, SOL needs acceptance above $126 followed by a decisive push through the $129-$130 zone. Without that sequence, price remains vulnerable to continued chop.

RSI is hovering around 39 with the average near 40, recovering slightly from recent lows, while the 200 EMA sits near $167 and slopes downward, reflecting broader overhead pressure.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $121
• Next Resistance: $126
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $144
• Downside Target: $107

SOL USD – Daily Price Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

Solana is currently stuck in confirmation mode. While higher timeframe bullish divergence exists, price has failed to respond with acceptance above resistance, keeping the setup unvalidated.

As long as SOL remains capped below $126, the market should expect continued range behaviour. A clean daily acceptance above $126 followed by a reclaim of $130 would materially improve structure and reopen a move toward $144.

On the downside, $121 remains the key line of defence. A clean breakdown below $120-$121 would invalidate the divergence and open a deeper move toward $107, representing roughly a 10-11% downside from current levels.

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Hyperliquid (HYPE)

TA

Since the last update, HYPE has moved into a tight consolidation, ranging between the $24-$25 zone for the past several sessions with no meaningful expansion.

Price action has been flat, with no aggressive rejection or breakdown.

The broader structure remains intact as long as HYPE continues to hold above the $23.5 support region, keeping the recent base formation valid.

A clean break and acceptance above the $25-$26 band would mark the first sign of expansion and open the path toward higher range levels.

Momentum remains weak but is stabilising with RSI hovering around 35 with the average near 34, recovering slightly from oversold territory, while the 200 EMA sits near $36.3 and slopes gently lower, reflecting lingering overhead pressure.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $23.5
• Next Resistance: $26.9
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $28.3
• Downside Target: $21.5

HYPE USD – Daily Price Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

HYPE is currently in a consolidation, the market is digesting the prior sell off, and price holding steady between $24-$25 suggests buyers are willing to defend this zone for now.

For the neutral-bullish thesis to progress, HYPE needs to reclaim and accept above the $25 ceiling. A successful breakout would likely accelerate price toward $26.9 and the higher upside target at $28.3.

Failure to hold $23.5 would weaken the structure and expose a deeper move toward $21.5, especially if broader market conditions deteriorate. Until that happens, HYPE remains in a value-building zone, with the focus on base development.

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AURA

TA

Aura continues to consolidate tightly just below the $0.03 area, with price action compressing, indicating ongoing absorption.

There has been no meaningful structural change since the last update, suggesting the market is still waiting for triggers.

A broader market push, particularly Solana accepting above $126 would likely act as the catalyst for Aura to follow through higher.

RSI has rebounded from oversold conditions near 28 and is now hovering around 36, in line with its average, while the 200 EMA remains well above price near $0.07, reinforcing the longer-term accumulation backdrop.

• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Action Plan: DCA and Raid

AURA USD – Daily Price Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take

Aura remains in a tight consolidation phase, price has spent enough time compressing around the $0.03 zone to suggest accumulation is still in progress. Directional expansion will likely depend on strength returning to the broader market, particularly Solana.

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Closing Thoughts

Bitcoin remains capped below $90,200, and repeated rejections from this level keep downside liquidity in play. Unless BTC reclaims $90,200 and eventually establishes acceptance above $96,000, liquidity pockets around $83,790 and $80,500 remain open and relevant.

Ethereum and Solana are at similar inflection points. ETH needs acceptance above $3,055, while SOL requires acceptance above $126 to shift structure meaningfully bullish. Until those levels are reclaimed, rallies within ranges remain corrective in nature. For now, the market continues to trade reactively around key levels. Directional bias will only firm up once these acceptance zones are cleared.

Adding near-term context, a record $28B+ in BTC and ETH options expire on Deribit this Friday (Dec 26), with open interest concentrated around $85k-$90k. This likely explains the pinned price action, as hedging flows sell rallies and buy dips. Volatility may expand post-expiry, but sustainable direction will still depend on acceptance above key resistance.

With year end holidays approaching and liquidity thinning, conditions are likely to remain choppy and less tradable in the short term, a good reminder to avoid forcing trades, and take time to enjoy the holidays.

Wishing everyone a great Christmas and a strong start to the New Year.

Cryptonary, OUT!