BTC, ETH and More: Oversold Bounces or Breakdown?

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice.

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TLDR:

• BTC: Still under pressure, stuck below weekly FVG. Needs daily close inside FVG for recovery or risk retesting lower support zones.
• ETH: Stabilizing on weekly demand and 200 EMA, but reclaim of $2,890 needed to restore upside momentum.
• SOL: Sitting on major support, daily trend bearish. Above $140 turns structure bullish, loss of $126 risks further decline.
• HYPE: Bearish below $35.3, momentum weak. A reclaim is critical to avoid cascading downside.
• AURA: Base forming at $0.0353. Recovery hinges on moves above $0.0487 and $0.0585 for bullish reset.

BTC:

• BTC broke below $108,400 and $104,600, causing an accelerated drop into the weekly FVG zone.
• On daily, price is rejecting from the lower FVG boundary with no weekly closes beneath it yet; structure remains fragile.
• Currently holding at April deviation zone ($83,790), same region of previous demand and reversal to ATH.
• Immediate resistance at $86,450 (bottom of FVG); reclaiming this opens targets to $90,200-$91,140.
• RSI is deeply oversold at 28; daily 200 EMA beginning to slope downward, signaling lingering weakness despite reset momentum.

BTC's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• BTC is consolidating at a critical higher timeframe support. All eyes on whether it can flip the FVG resistance ($86,450) to support for a momentum shift.
• An inability to reclaim this zone could lead to retests of $83,790 and, if lost, $79,140 comes into play.
• RSI’s deep oversold reading supports potential for technical bounce, but confirmation requires daily close inside FVG.
• Bulls must reclaim $86,450 for bullish case; remaining below tips momentum further bearish.

Cryptonary's take

BTC remains vulnerable after losing $108,400 and $104,600, now trading in the April manipulation zone. Failing to recapture the lower FVG boundary on the daily keeps risk to the downside, with targets at $83,790 and $79,140. Still, heavy oversold conditions suggest room for a relief bounce should price reclaim the FVG. A daily close inside FVG is critical for any bullish shift.

• Next Support: $83,790
• Next Resistance: $86,450
• Direction: Neutral/Bearish
• Upside Target: $90,200-$91,140
• Downside Target: $79,140

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ETH:

• ETH broke its August trendline, leading to a swift sweep into the weekly demand zone ($2,625-$2,370, midpoint $2,500).
• Losing $2,794 triggered a wick into weekly demand; ETH now attempting to reclaim $2,794 as short-term support.
• Resistance at $2,890; above here flips recent breakdown into a deviation, targeting $3,055 next.
• RSI oversold at 30, showing momentum reset; 200 EMA at $3,520 is strong resistance after earlier rejection.

ETH's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• Major higher timeframe demand zone acting as a buffer against deeper correction.
• After a strong shakeout, reclaiming $2,890 is required to confirm stabilization and invalidate recent breakdown.
• Failure to hold $2,794 re-exposes ETH to $2,618 downside magnet.
• Wide range since 2024, with deviation risk — price needs to hold above $2,794 to avoid acceleration lower.

Cryptonary's take

ETH is bouncing off major weekly support after a fast breakdown. Daily closes around $2,794 will determine whether this becomes a full reversal or just a relief rally. A reclaim of $2,890 would be the first strong recovery signal, while failing to hold support sets the stage for deeper downside to $2,618-$2,500.

• Next Support: $2,794
• Next Resistance: $2,890
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $3,055
• Downside Target: $2,618

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SOL:

• SOL testing major weekly and daily support at $126.15, same level that led to an upswing to $253 previously.
• Price briefly wicked below but no decisive close; weekly 200 EMA at $122 provides additional support.
• Daily trend is bearish with lower highs and lows.
• Immediate resistance $133.64, upside target at $140.43 required for short-term structural shift.
• RSI at 31, signaling stalled momentum; 200 EMA well above price and sloping down.

SOL's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• SOL consolidates at key demand, but daily structure remains cautious as lower highs persist.
• Must reclaim $133.64 and then $140 for a bullish flip.
• Below $126 exposes $121 and further downside risk.
• Oversold RSI could provide a bounce trigger, needs confirmation from price structure.

Cryptonary's take

SOL is at a long-term demand confluence but the inability to reclaim key levels keeps tone neutral-to-bearish. Must clear $140 for any confirmed trend reversal; until then, expect further pressure with chance of support breakdown.

• Next Support: $126.15
• Next Resistance: $133.64
• Direction: Neutral/Bearish
• Upside Target: $140.43
• Downside Target: $121.00

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HYPE:

• HYPE in clear daily downtrend, with recent breakdown below $35 and failure at daily 200 EMA ($38.64).
• Immediate resistance is $33.04, with support at $30.64; downside target at $28.39.
• RSI tagged oversold levels recently at 29, confirming weak momentum and lack of strength from bulls.
• Structure only improves above $35.3 and the 200 EMA.

HYPE's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• Bears control trend under key resistances; breakdown opens way for retests of $30.64 and $28.39.
• Oversold RSI but no convincing sign of reversal.
• Constructive narrative only resumes meaningfully after $35.3 reclaim.

Cryptonary's take

HYPE needs a reclaim of lost levels to escape further weakness after breakdown below $35 and loss of daily 200 EMA. As long as price remains under $33.04, sellers retain the advantage, with $30.64 and $28.39 likely next.

• Next Support: $30.64
• Next Resistance: $33.04
• Direction: Bearish
• Upside Target: $35.37
• Downside Target: $28.39

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AURA:

• AURA retraced from its all time high, failed breakouts of the wedge, now consolidating at $0.0353 support.
• Immediate resistance $0.0487, upside target at $0.0585; 200 EMA above at $0.0817 is a medium-term goal.
• Oversold RSI around 33; area aligns with historical accumulation zones.
• Base building at $0.0353 can mark bottom if holds, but needs resistance reclaims for bullish momentum.

AURA's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• Accumulation zone around $0.0353 with potential for swing long if resistance flips.
• $0.0487 and $0.0585 are key reclaim levels for bullish reversal.
• 200 EMA at $0.0817 can be reached on further constructive momentum.

Cryptonary's take

AURA's long retracement presents constructive opportunity around $0.0353 accumulation support. Neutral to bullish as long as this level holds; reclaiming above $0.0487 and $0.0585 would rapidly improve outlook and attract medium-term buyers.

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Closing words

Across the majors, market conditions remain mixed with the alts holding higher timeframe support zones but still lacking confirmation on the daily timeframe. BTC and ETH are both showing signs of exhaustion after their recent selloffs, and with RSI deeply reset across almost all majors, the market is positioned for potential stabilization, but structure must confirm first.

For now, the common bias is caution. Most assets are either sitting at or approaching key higher timeframe demand levels, but the short term structure across BTC, SOL, and HYPE remains under pressure. Confirmation signals, such as reclaiming broken resistances and establishing higher lows, will be essential before any shift in directional bias.

Until these reclaim levels are achieved, our stance across the board stays conservative. The next few sessions will be critical in determining whether this is a deeper continuation or the early stage of a broader reset that sets up the next leg higher.

Cryptonary, OUT!