Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

---

Quick bridge from last week…

Price action has continued to remain largely sideways, playing out as expected during the holiday period. Thin liquidity has kept markets choppy and non directional, with breakouts struggling to sustain and ranges continuing to dominate across majors.

Bitcoin followed the prior neutral-bearish thesis well. While price attempted a breakout, it was met with strong supply in the $90,200 zone and failed to secure acceptance, reinforcing the broader range-bound structure. This rejection kept downside liquidity relevant and confirmed that upside moves remain corrective for now.

Across the rest of the market, conditions have stayed similarly muted. Ethereum, Solana and Hyperliquid continue to base within their respective ranges, while Aura remains compressed. With holiday conditions still in play, patience remains key as we wait for cleaner signals and renewed participation in the sessions ahead.

TLDR

• BTC: Continues to stay range bound between $86.4k-$90.2k, compressing near the downtrend line, acceptance above $90.2k and $93.1k, failure keeps $83.8k and $80.5k in play.
• ETH: Holding above $2.9k FVG, but repeated rejection at $3,055 keeps structure neutral, reclaim opens $3,275, loss risks $2,794.
• SOL: Basing between $121-$126 at weekly 200 EMA, acceptance above $126 and $144, loss of $120 exposes $107.
• HYPE: Post breakout holding $25.2 as support, sustained base targets $26.9-$28.3, failure reopens $23.5.
• AURA: Still compressing below $0.03 with weak RSI, needs $0.03+ acceptance (via SOL strength) for upside expansion.

Bitcoin

TA:

BTC remains locked in a broader corrective structure, with price repeatedly failing to sustain upside moves and rejecting from $90,200 zones rather than transitioning into a continuation.

The first breakout attempt came on last Friday, when price pushed into the downtrend trendline but failed to hold above it, rotating back into the range.

A second attempt followed on Monday (29th Dec), with a stronger push that again stalled precisely at $90,200, reinforcing this level as a firm supply zone and keeping upside moves corrective.

Today’s daily candle has opened above the downtrend trendline and retested it, placing BTC at a critical decision point. Continuation or failure from this retest will determine whether this is a genuine structural shift or another failed breakout.

RSI is stabilising near neutral around 46 with average around 43, while the 200 EMA near $100,700 continues to slope downward, confirming that higher timeframe trend pressure remains corrective.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $86,400
• Next Resistance: $90,200
• Direction: Neutral-Bearish
• Upside Target: $93,150
• Downside Target: $83,790

BTC Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Bitcoin is once again testing a critical structural zone after multiple failed breakout attempts. While today’s candle opening above the downtrend and retesting it adds intrigue, acceptance, not positioning is what matters. Without a sustained reclaim of $90,200, upside attempts remain vulnerable.

The market has shown a clear pattern of selling strength rather than absorbing supply here. Until that behaviour changes, rallies should be treated cautiously and within a corrective framework.

For now, BTC remains neutral-bearish by structure. Directional clarity will only emerge if price can hold above the downtrend and reclaim $90,200 properly. Failing that, downside liquidity remains relevant and further range rotations cannot be ruled out.

---

Ethereum

TA:

ETH continues to trade sideways following last week’s analysis, with price holding above the 4H FVG and refusing to tap its midpoint, keeping short term downside controlled for now.

On Friday, ETH attempted to push toward the previously lost uptrend trendline while maintaining support above the 4H FVG, but failed to reclaim the trendline.

A renewed upside attempt came on Monday, where ETH pushed directly into $3,055, but rejected sharply and once again failed to reclaim the lost uptrend, confirming $3,055 as firm overhead supply.

Price is now consolidating just above the top of the 4H FVG ($2,900). As long as this zone holds, ETH remains in a balancing phase, failure here would open downside toward prior range lows.

RSI is stabilising near neutral around 47 with average at 44, while the 200 EMA near $3,360 is relatively flat compared to other majors, signalling consolidation.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $2,900
• Next Resistance: $3,055
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $3,275
• Downside Target: $2,794

ETH Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Ethereum is currently stuck between unresolved forces, supply at $3,055 and demand holding above the 4H FVG. Despite a sharp rejection earlier in the week, price has not rolled over, suggesting sellers are present but not yet in full control.

As long as ETH continues to consolidate above $2,900, downside remains capped and the structure stays neutral rather than bearish. This behaviour keeps the door open for another attempt at $3,055, especially if broader market conditions stabilise.

That said, acceptance is key. ETH only turns constructive if it can reclaim $3,055 and hold above it with follow-through. Failure to do so, particularly a loss of the 4H FVG, would shift focus back toward $2,794 and confirm a deeper corrective phase.

---

Solana

TA:

Since the last update, SOL has continued to build a base between $121 and $126, with price repeatedly rotating within this range itself.

On Monday, SOL attempted an upside expansion, briefly reclaiming $126 and pushing to a local high near $129.9, but the move failed due to broader market weakness.

The rejection from $130 and the failure to hold $126 confirms these levels as active supply, sending price back into the established range.

For now, SOL remains constructive as long as $120-$121 holds. A sustained loss of this zone would weaken structure and open downside toward prior demand.

RSI is hovering near 42 with average around 40, recovering modestly but still on the weaker side. The 200 EMA near $164 continues to slope downward, reinforcing a corrective, range bound environment.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $121
• Next Resistance: $126
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $144
• Downside Target: $107

SOL Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Solana remains in consolidation mode, repeatedly rejecting attempts to break higher while continuing to attract buyers near the lower end of the range. The failed push above $126-$130 shows that upside momentum is still fragile without broader market support.

Despite this, the structure has not broken. Holding above $120 keeps SOL in a neutral regime, allowing further base-building and preserving the potential for a future upside rotation if conditions improve.

Until SOL can reclaim and accept above $126, and ideally $130, rallies should be treated as corrective. A clean breakdown below $120 would materially weaken the setup and shift focus toward the $107 region.

---

Hyperliquid

TA:

Previously, HYPE was compressing between $24 support and $25.2 resistance, while battling a multi week downtrend trendline, keeping structure neutral and range-bound.

On Friday, HYPE successfully broke above both $25.2 and the downtrend trendline, marking a short-term structural improvement and flipping prior resistance into support.

Post-breakout, price has held above $25.2, consolidating tightly and forming a shallow base and not rejecting immediately, a positive sign, though follow through has been limited so far.

Upside expansion stalled near $26.7, just shy of the $26.9 resistance zone, indicating sellers remain active overhead despite the breakout.

RSI is stabilising around 42 with average around 37, recovering from prior weakness but not yet in strong momentum territory. The 200 EMA near $35.5 remains flat to soft, reinforcing that this is still an early stage breakout rather than a confirmed trend shift.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $25.2
• Next Resistance: $26.9
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $28.3
• Downside Target: $23.5

HYPE Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Hyperliquid has made a meaningful technical improvement by reclaiming both its downtrend trendline and the $25.2 level. This shifts the immediate risk profile away from breakdown and toward consolidation above support, which is constructive if maintained.

That said, the lack of strong continuation above $26.9 suggests the breakout still needs confirmation. A retest of $25.2, or even a deeper pullback toward $23.5, remains possible, especially if broader market conditions weaken.

For now, stance shifts from neutral-bullish to neutral, allowing price action to develop post breakout. Sustained acceptance above $26.9 would reopen the bullish case toward $28.3, while a loss of $25.2 would shift focus back to downside rotations.

---

AURA

TA:

AURA continues to trade in a tight consolidation just below $0.03, with price structure largely unchanged since mid December.

Attempts to reclaim $0.03 earlier on Monday failed alongside Solana’s rejection, reinforcing AURA’s dependence on broader SOL strength for any upside.

The $0.03 zone remains the key pivot; acceptance above it is required to break the current compression and allow higher range expansion.

RSI remains weak around 34 with average around 35, while the 200 EMA near $0.067 continues to cap price, highlighting persistent overhead pressure.

• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Action Plan: DCA and Raid

AURA Chart:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Aura remains in a clear accumulation phase, with no structural shift yet. Until price reclaims and accepts above $0.03, ideally alongside strength in Solana, upside attempts are likely to remain shallow and reactive.

---

Closing Thoughts

Market conditions remain muted, with limited directional clarity as thin holiday liquidity continues to suppress follow through. Bitcoin carries a slightly more bearish tilt relative to the rest of the majors, while Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid are holding structure comparatively better. We’re continuing to map short term scenarios where possible, but cleaner signals are more likely to emerge as liquidity returns into January and early Q1.

One key theme to monitor is Bitcoin Dominance, which appears stretched on higher timeframes and may be setting up for a rollover. While short term wicks higher are still possible, any sustained move lower in dominance would support relative strength across majors and select alts versus BTC. For now, patience remains essential as the market works through year end conditions.

This marks the final Market Direction of 2025. Enjoy the remainder of the holiday season, and we’ll return in 2026 with renewed focus and fresh energy.

Cryptonary, OUT!