Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Quick bridge from earlier this week…

Markets are moving through the Christmas-New Year holiday window, and price action across majors has remained range bound, in line with expectations under thin liquidity. Historically, total crypto market cap has often seen modest strength in the post Christmas period, though Bitcoin itself has been mixed during this window. In addition to this, today marks the largest single day BTC options expiry on record (approx $23.7B notional), with positioning clustered around higher external liquidity levels. This combination of seasonality, thin order books, and derivatives positioning helps explain why price has remained pinned and compressed so far.

From a structural standpoint, Bitcoin is now squeezing into a critical decision zone, compressed between its multi-week downtrend trendline on the upside and the weekly FVG bottom on the downside. This kind of tightening typically precedes volatility expansion, even though direction remains unresolved for now. Ethereum continues to stabilise in the middle of its broader range, attempting to build a base but without clear acceptance in either direction.

Solana dipped into the $120-$121 support region and has reacted decently so far, while Hyperliquid remains range bound with limited follow through, now also approaching the end of its own downtrend structure similar to BTC.

Overall, market structure remains intact, but directional conviction is still lacking. Choppy, rotational price action is likely to persist until liquidity improves post holidays and these compression structures resolve more decisively into early Q1.

TLDR

• Bitcoin: Still ranging between $86,400 and $90,200. Compressing into the downtrend trendline, neutral-bearish until acceptance above $90,200. Volatility is likely approaching.
• Ethereum: Holding the upper zone of the 4H FVG around $2,870-$2,900. Structure remains neutral, reclaim and acceptance above $3,055 needed for bullish continuation.
• Solana: Reacted well from $120-$121 support and its weekly 200 EMA around $123. Bias remains neutral until acceptance above $126, with $144 as upside only on confirmation.
• Hyperliquid: Still ranging between $24 $-25.2. Neutral-bullish while holding $23.5, breakout above $25.2 opens $26.9 and $28.3.
• Aura: Consolidating below $0.03 with RSI stabilising. Sideways structure persists, upside momentum depends on SOL reclaiming $126.

Bitcoin (BTC)

TA:

BTC continues to trade inside the same broader range, but price is now compressing between two major forces here, the weekly FVG bottom near $86,400 and a downtrend trendline in place since early October, marking 80+ days of corrective structure.

Since the last update, BTC has defended the $86,400 weekly FVG and is now chopping around the descending trendline, keeping price compressed at a key point.

Price is now pressing directly into the descending trendline around the $88k-$89k area, creating a squeeze setup between higher-timeframe support and resistance.

A daily close above the downtrend trendline could trigger a short covering relief move, but without acceptance above $90,200, any upside should still be treated as corrective.

Failure to break and hold above this trendline keeps BTC vulnerable to another pullback back toward the lower end of the range.

RSI has reset to neutral, hovering around 47 with average around 42, while the 200 EMA near $101,400 remains well above price and continues to slope down slightly, reinforcing the corrective environment.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $86,400
• Next Resistance: $90,200
• Direction: Neutral-Bearish
• Upside Targets: $93,150
• Downside Target: $83,790

BTC Structure Compression:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Bitcoin is compressing between its long standing downtrend resistance and the lower boundary of its weekly value area. This structure often precedes expansion, but direction still hinges on acceptance and not intraday probes or wicks.

For BTC to transition into a bullish structural phase, price must first reclaim $90,200 and then establish acceptance above $93,150. Until both levels are reclaimed and held, upside attempts remain vulnerable to rejection.

For now, BTC remains neutral-bearish by structure, with downside liquidity still relevant. Directional conviction only emerges if price either accepts above $93,150 or loses $86,400 decisively. Until then, expect continued choppy price action.

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Ethereum (ETH)

TA:

ETH rejected cleanly from the $3,055 resistance, confirming this level as active supply and reinforcing that upside attempts are still being sold.

After the rejection, price rotated lower but did not fully fill the 4H FVG, instead stabilising near the upper band of the imbalance with signals controlled selling here.

ETH is currently attempting to build a short term base around the 4H FVG, which keeps a retest of $3,055 possible if broader market conditions remain stable.

However, without acceptance above $3,055, any upside move remains corrective within the range, and failure to hold this base would expose deeper rotations toward range support.

RSI is neutral around 48 with average at 46, reflecting consolidation, while the 200 EMA near $3,370 continues to slope slightly downward, keeping higher timeframe pressure intact.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $2,870
• Next Resistance: $3,055
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $3,275
• Downside Target: $2,794

ETH Supply & Demand:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Ethereum remains structurally neutral, trading between short term demand at the 4H FVG and a clearly defined supply zone at $3,055. Price is stabilising, but upside attempts continue to lack acceptance.

The $3,055 level is the key pivot. A sustained reclaim and acceptance above this zone would materially improve structure and open a rotation toward $3,275. Until that happens, strength into resistance should be treated as range continuation.

On the downside, ETH is still respecting demand, limiting immediate bearish expansion. However, a loss of the current base would shift focus back toward $2,870 and potentially $2,794.

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Solana (SOL)

TA:

SOL failed to accept above the $126 resistance in the previous analysis and has since rotated back into support, finding buyers in the $120-$121 support area.

Today’s (26th Dec, Friday) daily candle swept the prior day’s (25th Dec, Thursday) low before reversing higher, reinforcing $120-$121 as an active demand area.

Price action remains range bound, but relative to other majors, SOL is holding structure more constructively, stabilising and not accelerating lower.

SOL is currently trading directly on the weekly 200 EMA ($123.3), a historically important higher-timeframe support that continues to attract bids.

RSI is recovering toward neutral at 41 with average around 39, while the daily/3D bullish divergence remains valid but requires acceptance above $126, followed by $129-$130, to trigger continuation.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $121
• Next Resistance: $126
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $144
• Downside Target: $107

SOL Key Support and EMA:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Solana remains structurally neutral, but its behaviour stands out versus other majors. Reactions from $120-$121 and continued defence of the weekly 200 EMA suggest higher timeframe demand is still intact, even as the broader market remains indecisive.

The bullish divergence on the daily and 3-day charts keeps upside potential alive, but confirmation is still missing. SOL must first accept above $126 and then reclaim $129-$130 to shift from range behaviour into directional continuation.

Until that acceptance occurs, price action is likely to remain choppy within the range. A failure to hold $120 would invalidate the bullish setup and reopen downside risk toward $107, while strength above $126 would be the first signal that SOL is ready to rotate higher.

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Hyperliquid (HYPE)

TA:

HYPE continues to range very tightly between $24 support and $25.2 resistance, with no daily acceptance outside this band over the past week.

Price is now pressing into the descending trendline from late October, creating a squeeze setup where continuation or rejection should resolve soon.

Acceptance above $25.2 would mark the first structural break of this compression, opening room for upside rotation toward higher resistance.

Failure to hold above $25 and a return to daily closes below $24 would weaken structure and shift bias away from the current neutral-bullish stance.

RSI is recovering toward neutral at 40 with its average around 35, while the 200 EMA near $36 continues to slope slightly lower, reflecting broader corrective pressure but no fresh downside acceleration.

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $23.5
• Next Resistance: $25.2
• Direction: Neutral-Bullish
• Upside Target: $26.9 and $28.3
• Downside Target: $21.5

HYPE Compression Structure:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Hyperliquid remains in a compression phase, trading at a technically important point between long standing trendline resistance and a demand band. This type of structure typically resolves with expansion, but direction still hinges.

A sustained close above $25.2 would be a meaningful signal, confirming that buyers are regaining control and allowing price to rotate toward $26.9. RSI attempting to lift back toward neutral supports the case for a short term upside attempt if structure breaks.

Until that acceptance occurs, however, risk remains two sided. Loss of $24 on a closing basis would invalidate the current setup and reopen downside toward $23.5 and $21.5. For now, HYPE stays neutral-bullish, but resolution is approaching quickly.

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Aura

TA:

Aura continues to consolidate just below the $0.03 area, with price action remaining tight and largely sideways.

The recent dip has been absorbed well, and price is stabilising, suggesting passive accumulation at these levels.

Momentum is slowly improving, with RSI bouncing modestly to around 38 with its average around 35, indicating easing downside pressure but not yet strong upside momentum.

The 200 EMA remains elevated near $0.069, keeping Aura firmly in a broader corrective structure, meaningful upside likely requires strength spilling over from Solana.

• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Action Plan: DCA and Raid

Aura Sideways Structure:

Cryptonary’s Take:

Structure is unchanged, but the lack of aggressive selling and slight RSI recovery suggest downside is being absorbed. For Aura to see meaningful upside traction, broader Solana strength is required, specifically SOL accepting above $126. Until then, expect continued consolidation and low volatility chop.

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Closing Thoughts

Bitcoin is approaching the end of its multi week downtrend trendline, placing price at a critical decision point. A breakout above this trendline could trigger a short term squeeze, but failure to do so keeps downside liquidity at $83,790 and $80,500 firmly in play. Direction will be dictated by how price reacts here, as expansion now looks increasingly likely in either direction.

Ethereum remains choppy in the middle of its range, offering little directional clarity for now. Solana has shown a constructive reaction from the $120-$121 support region, while Hyperliquid continues to coil tightly between $24 and $25 with no decisive resolution yet. Broader market structure remains intact, but momentum across majors is still muted.

Today marks the largest BTC options expiry on record (about $23.8B), with positioning heavily skewed bullish and dealer gamma likely contributing to the recent $86k-$90k pinning. As this expiry clears, volatility is expected to expand, but directional follow through will still depend on acceptance above key resistance levels, particularly $90,200 for BTC.

With year end liquidity thin, price action may remain noisy in the near term, making patience and level-based execution critical as these structures resolve. Enjoy the holiday season.

Cryptonary, OUT!