Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Quick bridge from last Friday…

Last week, we highlighted key resistance zones across the majors and noted that holding above those levels would keep continuation in play. That did not happen. BTC lost $90,200 and flushed to $83,790. ETH rejected $3,055 and dropped to $2,717. SOL failed to hold $140 and retraced to $126. HYPE broke $35.37 and swept the November 22 low near $29.30. The levels we were expecting to hold did break, and the market pushed into deeper supports before buyers stepped in.

Despite the breakdown across these upper levels, structure has remained intact at the lower support zones we’ve been tracking for the past few sessions. Every major asset is now reacting from these lower bands, which continue to act as the primary demand areas in the current range.

The focus now shifts to whether these supports can stabilise prices again. If they hold, the market can rotate back toward range highs, if they fail, we open the door for deeper retracements. For today, we’re working from the premise that the market is back at key supports, and how price reacts here will dictate the next leg.

TLDR

• BTC: BTC flushed on Monday but recovered back above $86,450. Structure stays neutral while BTC holds $83,790, a reclaim of $90,200-$91,140 is needed for strength.
• ETH: ETH rejected $3,055 and dropped to $2,717 before reclaiming $2,794. The trendline is still intact. Neutral stance until $3,055 is reclaimed.
• SOL: SOL failed to hold $140 and retraced to $126.15 support. Neutral stance as long as this level holds, $140.43 must be reclaimed for upside.
• HYPE: HYPE lost $35.37 and swept the Nov 22 low before reclaiming $30.64. Neutral-bearish unless it regains $33.04 and $35.37.
• AURA: AURA is rebuilding above $0.0353. Neutral-bullish while it holds this zone, reclaiming $0.0485 opens $0.0585 and $0.0767.

BTC

TA:

BTC flushed from the $90,200-$91,140 region on Monday but held the deeper support at $83,790, closing back above $86,450.

Since writing, BTC has rallied sharply, up +5% for the day and is now testing the lower end of the $90,200-$91,140 resistance zone, turning this level into the key decision point for the next move.

A daily close above $90,200-$91,140 would confirm a reclaim of structure, while a break above $93,200 would complete a 4H market structure shift and validate the weekly SMT divergence we’ve been tracking.

If the reclaim fails, $86,450 remains immediate support, with $83,790 as the next downside target.

RSI has bounced with the recent upswing and is now trading around 42, with the average near 33. Momentum is improving, but still below neutral territory. If BTC can sustain above the $90,200-$91,140 resistance zone, RSI should continue climbing toward the 50+ region, which would be a constructive signal that momentum is shifting back in favour of buyers.

Chart - BTC Technical Overview:

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $86,450
• Next Resistance: $90,200-$91,140Direction: NeutralUpside Target: $100,300Downside Target: $83,790

Cryptonary’s Take:

BTC’s reaction from $83,790 was stronger than expected, and the recovery into the $90,000 region has brought price right back into the same resistance band that defined last week’s trend. This is the level that matters. A daily close above $90,200-$91,140, followed by a push through $93,200, would shift our stance from neutral to neutral-bullish and confirm the 4H structural change that validates the ongoing weekly SMT divergence between BTC and ETH.

Until those confirmations appear, BTC remains neutral. Support at $86,450 and $83,790 has held cleanly so far, keeping the broader structure intact and preventing a deeper bearish shift. A successful reclaim of resistance would re-open the path toward $100,300.

For now, price sits at the inflection point. How BTC interacts with $90,200-$91,140 over the next sessions will decide whether this recovery becomes continuation or stalls.

ETH

TA:

In the last analysis, ETH was battling the $3,055 resistance but was unable to close above it. Price held near that zone over the weekend before breaking down on Monday.

The breakdown pushed ETH below $2,890 and straight into the lower support band, making a local low around $2,717, before closing back above $2,794.

ETH is now trying to build a base above $2,794, while also holding above the reclaimed trendline it previously deviated from.

We will no longer focus on $2,890 as a meaningful resistance, instead, $3,055 remains the next major resistance, with $3,436 as the upside target if reclaimed.

RSI has bounced to around 44, with the average near 36. Momentum is improving but still below neutral. If ETH can reclaim and sustain above $3,055, RSI should continue pushing toward the neutral and positive zone, which would support a move toward higher targets

Chart - ETH Technical Overview:

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $2,794
• Next Resistance: $3,055
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $3,436
• Downside Target: $2,620

Cryptonary’s Take:

ETH failed to absorb the $3,055 supply and followed BTC lower on Monday, but the reaction from $2,717 and the recovery back above $2,794 keeps the higher timeframe structure intact for now. As long as ETH continues holding above $2,794 and the reclaimed trendline, the chart remains stable enough to avoid shifting bearish.

For ETH to regain momentum, it must reclaim $3,055 and build a base above it. Only then do the higher levels at $3,436 and the 200 EMA around $3,478 come back into play. Without a reclaim of that resistance zone, the market will continue to treat ETH as neutral, waiting for confirmation.

We maintain a neutral stance for now. A breakdown below $2,794 would turn the outlook neutral-bearish, while a reclaim of $3,055 would shift it toward neutral-bullish. Until one of those triggers appears, ETH remains range-bound and dependent on broader market cues.

SOL

TA:

In the last analysis, SOL was attempting to build a base above $140, but it failed to hold that level and broke down sharply.

Price retested $140 from below, rejected, then moved through $133.64 and reached the next support at $126.15, making a local low near $123 before recovering.

SOL has now closed back above $126.15, which remains the key support. The next downside target sits at $121.05 if this level fails.

Resistance is now $140.43, while the next upside target is $155.82 if SOL can reclaim and hold above $140 again.

RSI has bounced back toward 44, with the average near 38, returning to the same momentum levels seen when SOL was previously trading above $140. With price now approaching that resistance again, a reclaim of $140.43 paired with RSI pushing above neutral levels would indicate improving strength and support a shift toward a healthier momentum profile.

Chart - SOL Technical Overview:

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $126.15
• Next Resistance: $140.43
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $155.82
• Downside Target: $121.05

Cryptonary’s Take:

SOL failed to maintain its base above $140 and followed the broader market lower, but the reaction from $126.15 has kept the structure intact for now. As long as this support holds, SOL remains stable enough to avoid shifting into a bearish stance. However, until $140.43 is reclaimed, the upside remains capped and caution is warranted.

The next major step for SOL is a successful reclaim of $140, which would signal the first signs of strength and allow price to begin working toward $155.82. Until that reclaim happens, the chart remains neutral and dependent on how well support continues to hold. A break above $140 would also help flatten the daily 200 EMA, improving the medium term structure.

On the weekly timeframe, SOL is sitting at an important zone, its weekly 200 EMA (around $123), which reinforces the need for the daily structure to stabilise and shift bullish in these levels itself. For now, we maintain a neutral stance, awaiting clearer confirmation from the daily close above $140.

HYPE

TA:

In the last analysis, HYPE was showing early strength and attempting to build a base above $35.37, but price failed to hold this level and rejected sharply.

The rejection sent HYPE straight into a sweep of the 22 November low around $29.30, but price quickly reclaimed $30.64, closing back above support.

HYPE is now bouncing off $30.64 and moving back toward the range top at $33.04, which now acts as immediate resistance.

On the downside, $28.39 remains the next target if $30.64 fails, while $35.37 continues to be the key upside target if price manages to reclaim structure.

RSI sits around 42 with average at 39, and the daily 200 EMA remains flattened around $38.24, giving mixed momentum signals.

Chart - HYPE Technical Overview:

Key Levels:

• Next Support: $30.64
• Next Resistance: $33.04
• Direction: Neutral-Bearish
• Upside Target: $35.37
• Downside Target: $28.39

Cryptonary’s Take:

HYPE’s breakdown from $35.37 and the sweep of the November 22 low shifted the short-term structure back into the lower band of its range. The reclaim of $30.64 prevented deeper downside, but the broader setup remains fragile until price can regain $33.04 and $35.37. Momentum is muted, the 200 EMA remains flattened, and the chart is still operating from a position of caution.

A move back into a favourable structure requires HYPE to reclaim $33.04 first and then $35.37, which would open the path toward the 200 EMA and shift bias away from neutral-bearish. Without this reclaim, price is likely to continue range inside the lower range with $28.39 acting as the next magnet if support weakens.

Worth noting: The recent staking unlock of 2.6M HYPE showed relatively healthy absorption:

• 41.95% was restaked
• 34.65% was held
• 610,308 HYPE was sold

This distribution indicates that a large portion of holders chose to retain or recommit their tokens rather than exit. However, the end of November unlock of 9.9M HYPE is far larger and represents a meaningful supply event that will test demand and liquidity. Size accordingly.

AURA

TA:

AURA retraced back toward the lower end of its range, finding buyers again near $0.0300.

Price is now hovering above the $0.0353 support zone, where it has consistently shown demand and attempted to stabilise over the past sessions.

Holding above this $0.035-$0.040 region keeps the structure constructive and allows AURA to begin working its way back toward $0.0485.

A reclaim of $0.0485 would open a clear path toward $0.0585, with $0.0767-$0.0786 (200 EMA) lining up as the next medium term objectives.

RSI has bounced to around 40, with the average near 35. This gradual momentum recovery, combined with price pushing back toward the $0.04 support zone, is a bullish confluence for AURA’s structure.

Chart - AURA Technical Overview:

• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Action Plan: DCA and Raid

Cryptonary’s Take:

AURA continues to build a base in the $0.035-$0.040 region, with price repeatedly defending this area and showing accumulation behaviour from market participants. This zone remains attractive for DCAs, especially given how heavily the chart has reset over the past few weeks.

For AURA to unlock its next leg higher, price simply needs to reclaim $0.0485 and establish a stable base above it. Doing so would bring $0.0585 back into range, followed by the $0.0767-$0.0786 cluster around the 200 EMA, a key medium term target that aligns with continuation.

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Closing Thoughts

The market has bounced fairly aggressively while writing today’s update, several majors already pushed back into their initial resistance levels. This puts the market at a decision point, if these levels are reclaimed, we look for fresh swing highs in the lower timeframe (4H) atleast, if rejected, yesterday’s pullback may extend further. The next sessions will determine whether this rebound is real momentum or just a reactionary bounce from support.

Macro also steps into the spotlight. The FOMC meets on December 9-10, with markets currently pricing an 83-88% probability of a 25 bps rate cut. If the cut is delivered, risk assets may find short term relief and continuation. If the Fed holds, pressure could re enter the market quickly, especially with majors sitting at resistance. On top of this, SOL CME futures launch on December 15, which could introduce fresh institutional flow and volatility into the majors.

What happens next depends entirely on whether these resistance tests convert into reclaims or fresh rejections. The market is definitely at a tipping point here, and the next sessions will set the tone into mid December.