Current prices:

• BTC: $104,100
• ETH: $2,610
• SOL: $180.50
• HYPE: $25.45

TLDR:

• Prices have seen a big move higher and are due for a pullback/a period of consolidation.
• Tariff de-escalation has likely substantially decreased recession risk, and therefore, we can look to become more constructive with our positioning on pullbacks.
• We will look to begin accumulating Spot bags on meaningful pullbacks. We have outlined some of these zones of interest below.

BTC:

• BTC's Open Interest has moved back up to its highs in USD value, suggesting that more leverage has been on. However, Funding Rates have remained relatively neutral, meaning that there isn't a build-up of excessive Longs, but that it's a mix of both Longs and Shorts.
• Some of this Open Interest will likely have to be unwound, but it's hard to say if it'll be Longs or Shorts that might be squeezed.

BTC's open interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• BTC broke well above the horizontal level of $98,900, which may now become new support, or at least the first major support for price.
• Beneath $98,900, $93,000 to $95,700 should be a good zone of support, should the price fall back below $98,900.
• To the upside, the key levels are at $107,00 and then essentially the all-time high of $109,000.
• Price has begun to consolidate/stall slightly, with price now grinding into the main uptrend line. If price loses the uptrend and isn't quickly recovered, then it's very possible that we see a revisit of $93,000 to $95,700.
• The RSI is very overbought, and it's currently sitting on top of its moving average. For this metric to meaningfully reset, we'll need at a minimum a significant period of consolidation.

• Next Support: $98,900
• Next Resistance: $107,000
• Direction: Neutral/Bearish
• Upside Target: $107,000
• Downside Target: $93,000 to $95,700

Cryptonary's take

BTC has had a big move up and in a short period of time, fueled by Spot buying and Shorts being squeezed. Whilst it's possible that BTC continues pushing higher, we're not expecting this to be the outcome.

We're not looking to chase prices currently, and we're expecting BTC to pull back from the $105k level back to 98900 As a minimum, however, this pullback might extend down to $93,000 to $95,700. If price pulls back to that level, we'll consider buying Spot BTC at that level with a view to holding it for at least 6 to 12 months.

What's next?

ETH, SOL, and HYPE are entering critical zones. One setup mirrors a 2023 run-up that delivered 3x in 30 days. Details inside.

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ETH:

• ETH's Open Interest on a USD and number of coins basis has jumped up massively, whilst the Funding Rate is neutral (0.00%). This suggests that a large amount of leverage has now been applied, with it being relatively even between Longs and Shorts.

ETH's open interest (in USD value):

Technical analysis

• ETH broke up and recovered the $1,745 horizontal level. Price built support on top of it, and it has since exploded higher recovering some key levels.
• ETH broke above $2,160, and then also $2,420, these are the two key levels.
• ETH has since formed support on top of the $2,420 horizontal support. Ideally, it would be good to see this level hold, however, we expect $2,160 to $2,420 to be the key zone of support.
• To the upside, $2,730 is the local resistance, and $3,050 is the major horizontal resistance.
• The RSI is currently very overextended to the upside, with the moving average now at its highest level since March 2024.
• We also note on the RSI that a bearish divergence has been put in overbought territory

• Next Support: $2,420
• Next Resistance: $2,830
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $3,050
• Downside Target: $2,140

Cryptonary's take

This is a huge move up for ETH, where we've seen a significant driver of the move being the unwind of Shorts. The question here is, can this rally continue? Our expectation is that we're due for a pullback in the immediate term, which we expect can retest the $2,160 to $2,420 area. Although we prefer other plays (such as SOL and HYPE), we'd consider building Spot positions in ETH between $2,160 and $2,420, with a view to holding it for 6-12 months.

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SOL:

• Like BTC and ETH, SOL's Open Interest has rallied substantially, whilst the Funding Rate has returned to the positive level of 0.01%. This suggests that the build-up in OI is mostly Longs, but not to a point where it's excessive and vulnerable to a squeeze.

SOL's open interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• SOL formed a bull flag that then coincided with a push into the horizontal resistance of $147. Price was able to break out, and it shot up to $180.
• Price has now moved into a resistance zone. We would expect SOL to top out at least locally in the coming days/week between $180 and $200.
• To the downside, the key supports are at $162, $147, and then the major level is at $120. Yes, it is still possible that this area can be retested.
• SOL's RSI is well into overbought territory, with its moving average at its highest level in the past 6 months, whilst a bearish divergence has also just formed (higher high in price, lower high on the oscillator).

• Next Support: $162
• Next Resistance: $200
• Direction: Neutral/Bearish
• Upside Target: $200
• Downside Target: $147

Cryptonary's take

It's possible that SOL has one more move higher in the immediate term to say $190, but further upside seems limited here. Our expectation is that in the short term, price pulls back, likely to the $147 to $162 zone. At this point, we'll likely look to begin building a position whilst also looking for other opportunities in the SOL ecosystem as well.

Price has moved up substantially in a short amount of time, so it would be very reasonable for the price to consolidate for a period of time. Even if price retested $120 to $130, this wouldn't be bad, and it would just be a retest of the base. If the price were to revisit $120 to $130, we'd look to aggressively add SOL for the long term.

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HYPE:

• HYPE has been the strongest runner out of the Majors that we cover, having shown huge strength to reclaim a number of key levels, including the major level of $23.00.
• HYPE is now consolidating between $23.00 and $26.00, whilst it also remains in its uptrend.
• To the upside, if the price can break above $26.00, then $31.00 is the target price.
• To the downside, the zone between $17.00 and $18.50 should be a significant zone of support for price, should price pull back. Note: $a 25% to 30% pullback would be healthy considering the move up we have had recently.
• The RSI is in overbought territory, although no bearish divergence has been put in, meaning there might be room for another push higher in the immediate term. But we do note that the moving average is in overbought territory, and it's currently at the highest level it's been at, so this should also suggest to us some level of caution here in terms of thinking of more upside.

• Next Support: $23.00
• Next Resistance: $26.00
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $31.00
• Downside Target: $17.00

Cryptonary's take

HYPE has been on a phenomenal run, and whilst it's possible we can see this extend further, in the short term, more upside is likely limited. It’s important that strong up moves also see periods of consolidation and pull back, and with the indicators where they are, our expectation is that that period could now be upon us. In terms of accumulating long-term Spot bags, we're still open to the idea that $14.50 is revisited, although we may look to start becoming more proactive in building a position between $17.00 and $18.50, should price pull back to there.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.