BTC, ETH, and More: Breakouts, Pullbacks, and Critical Resistance Zones

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice.

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TLDR:

• BTC: Holding $108k–$112k support; dip-buy zone with targets $116.6k–$120k.
• ETH: Range-bound $3,970–$5,000; buyers below $4,340, upside to $5,500.
• SOL: Pressing $203 resistance; breakout could reach $222, support $176–$185.
• HYPE: New highs; holding $48.8–$50, breakout over $50 targets $60.
• AURA: Strong support $0.116–$0.120; eyeing breakout to $0.177–$0.186.

BTC:

• BTC's Open Interest spiked back towards its highs last Friday following Powell's dovish tilt at Jackson Hole, but OI has since pulled back as price action has been lacklustre.
• The Funding Rate has remained flat at 0.01% indicating a healthy appetite amongst traders to be Long, but not to overly frothy levels.

BTC's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• BTC bounced from the $112k level following a dovish tilt from Powell at Jackson Hole, which saw price retest the main horizontal resistance of $116,600 and the underside of the main uptrend line.
• Price rejected from the converging resistance area and price has since pulled back to the major support zone of $110k-$112k.
• The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is at $108k, and whilst it's possible that price falls below that level, this level has historically been a good buying opportunity in bull markets.
• For BTC the support zone is between $108k-$112k, although we'd be aggressive buyers down to $105k, with a view to holding for the long-term.
• Should price bounce, and we expect it will after a week or two of consolidation between $108k-$115k, then $116,600 and $120,100, are the key resistance levels for price to reclaim.
• The RSI has meaningfully reset, although it's below its moving average and still some way away from being oversold.

Cryptonary's take

Bitcoin has pulled back to our support zone between $108k-$112k. We're buyers at this level, and we'll intensify our buys should BTC fall below $108k, down to $105k. Our expectation is that BTC is in a weak seasonal period where we could see price consolidate for several weeks before price recovers and begins to move higher again. It's still our view that this is just a bull market pull back, and therefore our approach remains the same; we're dip buyers.

• Next Support: $108,000
• Next Resistance: $112,000
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $120,100
• Downside Target: $105,000

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ETH:

• ETH's Open Interest has pulled back in recent days, whilst there was a substantial Spot bid, this has now begun to decrease.
• The Funding Rate has also begun decreasing alongside this, pulling back to flat (0.00%).
• This suggests some cooling from very overheated levels in ETH's leverage market. This is likely a healthy reset.

ETH's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• ETH moved up into the horizontal resistance at $4,770 following Powell's dovish pivot last Friday at Jackson Hole, although price rejected into that level over the weekend.
• Price has pulled back and initially found support at a local level of $4,340, whilst the more major levels below lie at $3,970 and $4,000 (psychological level).
• We would be buyers of ETH should it fall below $4,340, down to $3,970.
• To the upside, the horizontal resistances are at $4,770 and then $5,000, with $5,500 the next level should price break out.
• The RSI is in middle territory; however, one concern is the back-to-back bearish divergences which we have noted on the chart. This is the higher highs in price and the lower highs on the oscillator.

Cryptonary's take

ETH rejected from the all-time highs, and price is now likely to remain range-bound for some time, unless Treasury company buys step up, and in, in a significant way. We expect ETH to be range-bound between $3,970 and $5,000. The reason being is that ETH was getting overheated, and we could see this from the back-to-back bearish divergences, which now may need some time to reset. Should ETH pull back to $3,970-$4,340, we'd be buyers of ETH at this level, with a view to ETH eventually breaking out of $5,000 and pushing on to $5,500. So, this would be a buy of $3,970-$4,340, with a view to selling into $5,500 over the medium to long-term.

• Next Support: $4,340 (then $3,970)
• Next Resistance: $4,770
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $5,500
• Downside Target: $3,970

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SOL:

• SOL's Open Interest pulled back from the highs during the weekend, but they have since re-approached the highs.
• The Funding Rate is positive, but it remains below 0.01%. This is a healthy leverage setup for SOL, and price can continue higher with this backdrop.

SOL's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• SOL initially rejected into the key horizontal resistance of $203 over the weekend, pulling back to the $185 local horizontal support.
• Price has since bounced and it is squeezing into the $203 horizontal resistance again.
• Should SOL break out (we're expecting it to), then the major horizontal resistances above price are at $222 and then $260.
• Should price reject and pull back, then $185 is a key support, followed by $176.
• The RSI has reset and it's in middle territory without any major bearish divergences. This suggests that there's room for upside.

Cryptonary's take

SOL has consolidated towards the top of its range with price mostly being range-bound between $176 and $203. This has given price a strong base and chart structure to lodge a breakout of $203 and potentially push on to $222 in the short-term. This may also give more momentum to the rest of the SOL eco-system, potentially benefitting SOL memes. Should price now break out of $203 here (although not our base case), then we'd be buyers of SOL should it re-visit $176. However, we do see this as unlikely. So, for now, we will continue to hold our Spot bags and anticipate a breakout to $222.

• Next Support: $185
• Next Resistance: $203 (then $222)
• Direction: Bullish
• Upside Target: $222
• Downside Target: $176

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HYPE:

• Price pulled back from one of key horizontal resistances of $45.80, with price finding support and bouncing from $40.00.
• Price has now cleared above $45.80, and price has put in a new all-time high, although price is pulling back to $48.80-$50.00 which is a key horizontal level that price needs to now flip into a support zone.
• Should the price convincingly break out of $50.00, then $60.00 is likely next, although this may take some weeks.
• Below $48.80, we expect this zone between $45.80 to $48.80 to also now be a strong support zone. Should price retest the bottom of this zone at $45.80, we'd be buyers of HYPE with a view to holding for the long-term.
• Should the price breakdown more materially, then once again $39.40-$40.00 should act as support for price, although we're not expecting this level to be retested.
• The RSI is in middle territory and above its moving average, whilst it's also squeezing up into its downtrend line which has been intact since late May. Should the RSI breakout of the downtrend line, we'd expect a big move higher for price, potentially making $60.00 achievable sooner.

HYPE's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• HYPE has broken out to new all-time highs with price now using $48.80-$50.00 as a support. Should HYP hold this support level, and we see price move higher, that'll likely result in an RSI downtrend line break out which would likely give fuel for price to break out to $60.00 in the short-term (next few weeks).
• We continue to hold HYPE as we look for a clean and convincing break out of $50.00 that could take price swiftly onto $60.00. However, should price break down (this isn't our base case), then we'd be buyers of HYPE at $45.80.

Cryptonary's take

We continue to hold HYPE as we look for a clean and convincing break out of $50.00 that could take price swiftly onto $60.00. However, should price break down (this isn't our base case), then we'd be buyers of HYPE at $45.80.

• Next Support: $45.80
• Next Resistance: $50.00
• Direction: Bullish
• Upside Target: $60.00
• Downside Target: $45.80

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AURA:

• AURA reclaimed the horizontal level of $0.145 and pushed into the downtrend line, however price rejected into that resistance area, and price pulled back.
• The $0.116-$0.120 level has continued to be a strong level of support that we expect to remain intact and support price.
• Price is now squeezing back into $0.145, whilst it's also squeezing into its downtrend line. A breakout of this level would likely send price back to the horizontal resistance zone of $0.177-$0.186.
• Should price reclaim $0.177-$0.186, then the next resistances above price are $0.215 and $0.245. A breakout of the all-time high would likely send price into the $0.30's.
• The RSI has meaningfully reset and it's back to middle territory, whilst it's also climbed above its moving average. This leaves plenty of room for upside to be had.

AURA's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• AURA has continued to find strong support between $0.116-$0.120 with price now bouncing back towards the horizontal level of $0.145 as price also squeezes into the downtrend line. A breakout of this level would be substantial and likely send price to the resistance zone of $0.177-$0.186. We're expecting this in the short-term.
• We're therefore holding Spot positions, in anticipation of a breakout to $0.177-$0.186 in the short-term. An invalidation would be a breakdown of the support zone of $0.116-$0.120.

Cryptonary's take

AURA has continued to find strong support between $0.116-$0.120 with price now bouncing back towards the horizontal level of $0.145 as price also squeezes into the downtrend line. A breakout of this level would be substantial and likely send price to the resistance zone of $0.177-$0.186. We're expecting this in the short-term. We're therefore holding Spot positions, in anticipation of a breakout to $0.177-$0.186 in the short-term. An invalidation would be a breakdown of the support zone of $0.177-$0.186.

• Next Support: $0.120
• Next Resistance: $0.177-$0.186
• Direction: Bullish
• Upside Target: $0.215
• Downside Target: $0.116

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Closing Thoughts:

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