BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE — breakdowns, bear flags, and a market on the edge

TLDR:

• BTC: Broke key support and uptrend; targeting $95.7k-$98.9k. Bearish outlook.
• ETH: Holding $2,420 support within range; neutral but relatively stronger.
• SOL: Lost $162 support; likely heading toward $130-$120 zone.
• HYPE: Bear flag forming; downside target $28, possibly $23.70.

BTC:

• Bitcoin's Open Interest has pulled back from its highs as the price has pulled back.
• BTC's Funding Rate was towards the 0.01% mark, but upon the OI pullback, the Funding Rate has moved closer to 0.00%.
• This is a relatively healthy setup from a mechanics perspective ,with no signs of froth or excess.

BTC's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• Bitcoin has fallen out of its main uptrend line, with price also losing the horizontal level of $106,900.
• There is a support zone between $102,500 and $105,000. Price has so far found support in this zone.
• If price breaks below $102,500, then the next zone of support is likely to be between $95,700 and $98,900.
• To the upside, the key level for BTC to reclaim is $106,900, and then beyond that, it's the all-time high of $111,900.
• BTC does look to be forming a 'Head & Shoulders' pattern (which we have marked out on the chart). These formations have a bearish bias, with the likely breakdown target being at least $98,900.
• This price pullback has allowed the RSI to reset, pulling back to middle territory from having been close to overbought.

• Next Support: $102,500
• Next Resistance: $106,900
• Direction: Bearish
• Upside Target: $106,900
• Downside Target: $95,700

Cryptonary's take

BTC is at a critical juncture here. Price has broken below its main uptrend line and it's now below its first major line of support, whilst it's now forming a bearish candle formation. It's possible that $103k is the extent of the pullback however, our expectation is that there's much further to go here, with the first major pullback target area being between $95,700 and $98,900.

For now, we're remaining patient as our expectation is that we'll see the price move lower in the coming 1-2 weeks, with the mid-90k's being that target area. At that time, we'll reassess the data to see if we'll begin re-accumulating BTC again in the mid-90k's.

What's next?

ETH, SOL, and HYPE are all sitting on make-or-break levels. We’ve mapped the exact price zones where we’ll go long—and where we'll short hard if support gives way. High-probability moves are coming in the next 72 hours.

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ETH:

• ETH's Open Interest still remains incredibly high, and it's increased as price has remained range-bound.
• ETH's Funding Rate has pulled back from 0.01%, but it's still positive, which suggests that there is a relatively even balance between Longs and Shorts.

ETH's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• Price has rejected through the upper bound of the range at the $2,720 horizontal resistance.
• Price has been range-bound over the last few weeks between the horizontal support at $2,420 and the horizontal resistance at $2,720.
• Price is now at the horizontal support (of $2,420) with the RSI having meaningfully reset back to neutral territory, which is healthy to see.
• If $2,720 can be broken to the upside, then $3,050 is the next major horizontal resistance.
• If $2,420 (the horizontal support) is lost, then $2,160 is the next level on the cards.

• Next Support: $2,420
• Next Resistance: $2,720
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $2,720
• Downside Target: $2,160

Cryptonary's take

We've had a monster rally across the board on all assets, so it wouldn't be bad to see a slight pullback or a period of consolidation, which is what we expect to see over the coming 1-2 weeks.

BTC and SOL have both broken below their main uptrend lines, and they're balancing on key supports. ETH, on the other hand, is holding a key range, and granted it is at its main support of $2,420, but from a charting perspective, it does look better than the other Majors - if you're going to bet on upside. But as we said, we are expecting 1-2 weeks of pullback or chop, and therefore it might be hard for ETH to rally strongly in that environment. For now, we're watching the key level of $2,420 for ETH. We may consider longer-term Spot positions for ETH should it revisit $2,160.

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SOL:

• SOL's Open Interest has pulled back slightly over the last few days following the price pullback, with Funding Rates holding close to neutral, but whipsawing.
• Ultimately, this shows indecision amongst traders.

SOL's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• SOL broke below its horizontal support of $162 as we expected it would do, following the loss of its main uptrend line.
• Price is now holding at the prior highs at the $150 level, whilst there is also a main horizontal support just below $150 and $147.
• If price were to lose to the horizontal level at $147, then price would likely pull back to the $120 to $130 zone. If this were to happen, we would consider buying SOL for the long run in that range ($120 to $130).
• It's possible in the immediate term that SOL bounces and retests $162 as a new horizontal resistance. We expect the price to reject there in the short term, and pull back further.
• If price can break above $162, though (as we said, we don't expect it to), then $180 is the next horizontal resistance.
• The RSI has meaningfully reset on this pullback, and it's now in middle territory, so not overbought or oversold.

• Next Support: $147
• Next Resistance: $162
• Direction: Neutral/Bearish
• Upside Target: $180
• Downside Target: $130

Cryptonary's take

SOL has pulled back more substantially, as we expected it would, following the breakdown of the main uptrend line. SOL is now in a critical zone between $147 and $162, where price will need to show strength if a general uptrend is to be continued. We expect that the price may chop for a few days (potentially even retesting the underside of the horizontal resistance at $162) before breaking below the horizontal support of $147, and moving back down to $130.

In terms of our positioning, we'll remain sat in USD for now, although a retest of $120 to $130 would likely encourage us to begin lightly stepping back in (buying). But for now, we're patient and we see little reason needed to rush in here.

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HYPE:

• HYPE has pulled back from the all-time highs of $40.00. $40.00 remains the major horizontal resistance for the price going forward.
• Price has now found some local support at the prior highs of $31.00.
• Price is now forming a bear flag that would have a breakdown target of $28.00.
• Should price break below $28.00, although we think it can hold there initially, then $24.70 would be the next major horizontal support.
• The RSI has pulled back from overbought territory, however, its moving average is still overbought, which would suggest that this needs more time to come down/reset.

• Next Support: $28.00
• Next Resistance: $40.00
• Direction: Bearish
• Upside Target: $40.00
• Downside Target: $23.70

Cryptonary's take

HYPE has had a phenomenal run, however, we have now seen a small pullback, and we do expect this to be the start of a new downtrend over the medium term for HYPE. Our expectation is that HYPE will break down from its bear flag pattern and the price will revisit $28.00 in the short term. Ideally, we'd like to see HYPE hold that $28.00 support and build a floor for the price there. We will reassess this, assuming we're right and price revisits $28.00 in the short term.

In terms of positioning, we're remaining patient, and we're not looking to buy this price pullback just yet. We'll reassess upon a retest of $28.00, although it's likely that our buying zone will be sub $23.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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