BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE — breakdowns, bear flags, and a market on the edge

TLDR:

• BTC: Broke key support and uptrend; targeting $95.7k–$98.9k. Bearish outlook.
• ETH: Holding $2,420 support within range; neutral but relatively stronger.
• SOL: Lost $162 support; likely heading toward $130–$120 zone.
• HYPE: Bear flag forming; downside target $28, possibly $23.70.

BTC:

• Bitcoin's Open Interest has pulled back from its highs as the price has pulled back.
• BTC's Funding Rate was towards the 0.01% mark, but upon the OI pullback, the Funding Rate has moved closer to 0.00%.
• This is a relatively healthy setup from a mechanics perspective, with no signs of froth or excess.

BTC's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• Bitcoin has fallen out of its main uptrend line, with price also losing the horizontal level of $106,900.
• There is a support zone between $102,500 and $105,000. Price has so far found support in this zone.
• If price breaks below $102,500, then the next zone of support is likely to be between $95,700 and $98,900.
• To the upside, the key level for BTC to reclaim is $106,900, and then beyond that, it's the all-time high of $111,900.
• BTC does look to be forming a 'Head & Shoulders' pattern (which we have marked out on the chart). These formations have a bearish bias, with the likely breakdown target being at least $98,900.
• This price pullback has allowed the RSI to reset, pulling back to middle territory from having been close to overbought.

• Next Support: $102,500
• Next Resistance: $106,900
• Direction: Bearish
• Upside Target: $106,900
• Downside Target: $95,700

Cryptonary's take

BTC is at a critical juncture here. Price has broken below its main uptrend line and it's now below its first major line of support, whilst it's now forming a bearish candle formation. It’s possible that $103k is the extent of the pullback however, our expectation is that there's much further to go here, with the first major pullback target area being between $95,700 and $98,900.

For now, we're remaining patient as our expectation is that we'll see the price move lower in the coming 1–2 weeks, with the mid-90k's being that target area. At that time, we'll reassess the data to see if we'll begin re-accumulating BTC again in the mid-90k's.

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ETH:

• ETH's Open Interest still remains incredibly high, and it's increased as price has remained range-bound.
• ETH's Funding Rate has pulled back from 0.01%, but it's still positive, which suggests that there is a relatively even balance between Longs and Shorts.

ETH's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• Price has rejected through the upper bound of the range at the $2,720 horizontal resistance.
• Price has been range-bound over the last few weeks between the horizontal support at $2,420 and the horizontal resistance at $2,720.
• Price is now at the horizontal support (of $2,420) with the RSI having meaningfully reset back to neutral territory, which is healthy to see.
• If $2,720 can be broken to the upside, then $3,050 is the next major horizontal resistance.
• If $2,420 (the horizontal support) is lost, then $2,160 is the next level on the cards.

• Next Support: $2,420
• Next Resistance: $2,720
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $2,720
• Downside Target: $2,160

Cryptonary's take

We've had a monster rally across the board on all assets, so it wouldn't be bad to see a slight pullback or a period of consolidation, which is what we expect to see over the coming 1–2 weeks. BTC and SOL have both broken below their main uptrend lines, and they're balancing on key supports.

ETH, on the other hand, is holding a key range, and granted it is at its main support of $2,420, but from a charting perspective, it does look better than the other Majors – if you're going to bet on upside. But as we said, we are expecting 1–2 weeks of pullback or chop, and therefore it might be hard for ETH to rally strongly in that environment. For now, we're watching the key level of $2,420 for ETH. We may consider longer-term Spot positions for ETH should it revisit $2,160.

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SOL:

• SOL's Open Interest has pulled back slightly over the last few days following the price pullback, with Funding Rates holding close to neutral, but whipsawing.
• Ultimately, this shows indecision amongst traders.

SOL's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• SOL broke below its horizontal support of $162 as we expected it would do, following the loss of its main uptrend line.
• Price is now holding at the prior highs at the $150 level, whilst there is also a main horizontal support just below $150 and $147.
• If price were to lose to the horizontal level at $147, then price would likely pull back to the $120 to $130 zone. If this were to happen, we would consider buying SOL for the long run in that range ($120 to $130).
• It's possible in the immediate term that SOL bounces and retests $162 as a new horizontal resistance. We expect the price to reject there in the short term, and pull back further.
• If price can break above $16,2, though (as we said, we don't expect it to), then $180 is the next horizontal resistance.
• The RSI has meaningfully reset on this pullback, and it's now in middle territory, so not overbought or oversold.

• Next Support: $147
• Next Resistance: $162
• Direction: Neutral/Bearish
• Upside Target: $180
• Downside Target: $130

Cryptonary's take

SOL has pulled back more substantially, as we expected it would, following the breakdown of the main uptrend line. SOL is now in a critical zone between $147 and $162, where price will need to show strength if a general uptrend is to be continued. We expect that the price may chop for a few days (potentially even retesting the underside of the horizontal resistance at $162) before breaking below the horizontal support of $147, and moving back down to $130.

In terms of our positioning, we'll remain sat in USD for now, although a retest of $120 to $130 would likely encourage us to begin lightly stepping back in (buying). But for now, we're patient and we see little reason needed to rush in here.

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HYPE:

• HYPE has pulled back from the all-time highs of $40.00. $40.00 remains the major horizontal resistance for the price going forward.
• Price has now found some local support at the prior highs of $31.00.
• Price is now forming a bear flag that would have a breakdown target of $28.00.
• Should price break below $28.00, although we think it can hold there initially, then $24.70 would be the next major horizontal support.
• The RSI has pulled back from overbought territory, however, its moving average is still overbought, which would suggest that this needs more time to come down/reset.

• Next Support: $28.00
• Next Resistance: $40.00
• Direction: Bearish
• Upside Target: $40.00
• Downside Target: $23.70

Cryptonary's take

HYPE has had a phenomenal run, however, we have now seen a small pullback, and we do expect this to be the start of a new downtrend over the medium term for HYPE. Our expectation is that HYPE will break down from its bear flag pattern and the price will revisit $28.00 in the short term. Ideally, we'd like to see HYPE hold that $28.00 support and build a floor for the price there. We will reassess this, assuming we're right and price revisits $28.00 in the short term.

In terms of positioning, we're remaining patient, and we're not looking to buy this price pullback just yet. We'll reassess upon a retest of $28.00, although it's likely that our buying zone will be sub $23.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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