Save 23% ($351) & Get a Free 1-1 Call with our Team ⏰ : 0d 2h 59m 43s
Bitcoin faces formidable overhead resistance between $43,900 and the $44,200-$44,900 range. Its ability to overcome these technical levels could open the door towards $47,000. However, failure to push through this area of resistance raises the risk of further downside.
Ethereum tells a similar story, squeezed between $2,200 support and $2,340 resistance. The eventual breakout from this constrained range will likely set the trend for more significant price swings.
Across the board, the coming days represent a critical juncture that could determine if the market will break out emphatically or break down to new lows.
Let’s dive in.
You can jump to the analysis of assets you are most interested in by clicking on the directional links below.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.
BTC update
In keeping mechanics short, BTC is clean from this point of view.Open Interest (OI) is up in the last few days but is still nowhere near the early Jan (pre-ETF) highs.
Alongside this, Funding is flat at 0.01%.
There is no significant leverage build-up here, so flushes out aren't too likely. All clear from this perspective.
Technical analysis
- BTC is battling at a key level here, having bounced nicely on local timeframes with price and now trying to reclaim the uptrend line.
- Above the current price, there are a number of resistances: the horizontal resistance of $43,900 and the orange box of $44,200 to $44,900.
- If price does break down, the key horizontal level that price will need to hold (or risk a more substantial sell-off) is the $40,900 level.
- A positive for the argument of further price upside here is that the RSI is still quite subdued, nowhere near overbought territory yet, meaning this current move may still have more room in it to go higher.
Cryptonary's take
BTC looks to be at a real pivotal point here.We have big resistances above the current price. If BTC can overcome these resistances, then this opens the door for a move to $47,000. However, BTC is currently trying to recover the local uptrend line and seems to find it to be resistance for now.
This is the first resistance, the second is the horizontal resistance at $43,900, and the third is the orange box. A lot of resistance above that price needs to be overcome.
The personal feeling here is that BTC may struggle to get above $44,000, let alone the orange box. It's possible that if BTC stagnates at this price, then Altcoins could perform well.
However, we feel we do see more downside in the coming weeks/months. Yet, the strength shown in the prior few days means our level of conviction has decreased slightly.
Ultimately, BTC is at a crucial point here. If it can't clear above the resistance (we think it'll struggle to do so), then we can see lower prices.
Our overall level of conviction has decreased somewhat, though, in the BTC's next move, so please consider this when valuing the above analysis.
ETH update
Mechanics-wise, ETH's OI isn't a concern- it is at very normal levels.The Funding Rate is similar. However, it is slightly lower than 0.01%, suggesting some interest amongst participants to be short ETH here, although they're not overweight.
Technical analysis
- Like BTC, ETH is at a real key juncture here. Price broke below the $2,340 horizontal support but bounced from $2,200.
- Price has moved higher and tested the $2,340 horizontal level, now finding it as new resistance.
- Price is also holding a local uptrend.
- Therefore, price is squeezing into the pinpoint where the horizontal resistance meets the local uptrend line. As price squeezes into this pinpoint, it can lead the price to break violently.
- If price can break to the upside, we see $2,460 as a likely target, potentially quickly. However, if price breaks down, $2,210 will likely be tested.
- The RSI is clean - ETH is in a very middle territory, suggesting there is room for price to move in either direction.
Cryptonary's take
ETH is at a crucial point here.It's really hard to have a bias here as we see prices going lower in the coming weeks, but the market has also shown some strength over the past few days, particularly in the altcoins.
If we had to side, we would still hold the view that we see more downside in the coming weeks. Whichever way price breaks out in the coming days will be a good indicator as to where price moves next.
SOL update
The mechanics are becoming more interesting here.SOL's OI has increased to highs not far off the highs we saw in the euphoric period in December.
However, Funding is at 0.01%. Overall, this suggests a build-up in leverage but with no directional bias.
Technical analysis
- SOL is another coin that's at a really crucial point here. The main uptrend line has been key throughout the past few months.
- Once price lost the uptrend line, the move down was relatively violent, although price bounced nicely off of the $79 horizontal support.
- Price then managed to break out of the downtrend line, which sent price to the orange box, as we expected it would.
- We also notice that price has tried to get some relief to the upside slightly and seems, for now, to have rejected into the underside of the uptrend line.
- If the rejection stands here, then $93 is the first level of interest.
Cryptonary's take
We see SOL lower in the coming weeks. We plan to continue holding Spot and add to our bags between $79 and $86.If we get below $79, we'll add more aggressively. Between $59 and $65, We’ll throw the kitchen sink at it.
RUNE update
RUNE’s mechanics are clean. OI is at a low to normal level, while Funding is flat at 0.01%.Technical analysis
- Following a bounce from the yellow box, price moved up and broke out of the local downtrend.
- However, price has now found resistance at the horizontal resistance of $4.78, an area we have identified for a long while now.
- If price can break above the red downtrend line and the $4.78 horizontal resistance, then price could get a nice move up. However, we may not see price getting above this level.
- The RSI is at 51, so there is room to go either way.
Cryptonary's take
Our feeling was that price could actually do a bit better than it has.We thought $5.30 would be possible before we foresee further downside.
It now looks like we're just starting to get more downside, having only really reached the first resistance level of $4.78.
For RUNE, we see the next move as moving into the yellow box again. With a second retest, there's less chance it holds; potentially, we go lower.
But we do see price holding at the yellow box for a while.
LINK update
The mechanics are not good for LINK.OI is up massively, although the Funding rate is flat at 0.01%. There is a lot of leverage here, but balance positionally. This will get a flush out in our opinion.
Technical analysis
- LINK has had a really strong move up that we certainly didn't expect so soon.
- LINK is now battling at the main horizontal resistance of $17.74. If the price can settle above, then LINK could run further.
- To the downside, the mid-level would be the next level of support at $15.33.
- The RSI is now somewhat concerning and suggests some caution here. Pushing 77 on the RSI is very overbought.
Cryptonary's take
LINK has had a really good move.We do see prices lower in the coming months. If LINK puts in a higher in the coming week, and the RSI puts in a bearish divergence, that would signal us to Short LINK.
WIF update
- WIF has now fully retraced the breakout move and is attempting to find support at $0.1974.
- Price did reject from the orange box. One of our analysts did Short this, with too tight a Stop Loss and lost the trade. Oh well. Overall, the orange box worked well.
- There are key horizontal supports below the current price. We have $0.1974, $0.1587 and then $0.1268.
Cryptonary's take
It's possible that WIF still sees more downside and finds support somewhere between $0.12 and $0.19 – yes, that’s a very wide range.However, you may re-buy WIF if it gets as low as $0.12. We'd consider this a really attractive entry point if price gets there. If it doesn't then we'll leave it. But what we won’t want to do is buy at $0.19 (even though price is capable of finding a bottom there), and then price moves down to $0.12, and you’ll be down 40% on your position.
Therefore, we would only take a new position once we consider the price given as extremely attractive, which to us, that’s $0.12, even though we are asking a lot for price to pull back to $0.12.
Let's see.
