The mechanics have reset with Open Interest pulling back and Funding being relatively positive, close to the 0.01% mark.
However, BTC is battling at a crucial technical level that needs to hold; otherwise, a more significant downside is likely.
Now, this is the key question, "is Bitcoin heading back to $38K?
Technical analysis
- Currently, on the 12-hour timeframe, BTC looks to have lost the main uptrend line. A close below the uptrend line on the 12hr would be the first major sign of weakness.
- BTC is also battling at the horizontal support of $40,900 down to $40,600. This is a key level for BTC to find some support and bounce from in the short term. If not, this likely leads to a more considerable downside.
- The main horizontal support to the downside if the price loses its current level is $38,000 to $38,300.
- The local resistance will be the underside of the uptrend line, around $41,800.
- The RSI has finally reset on all major timeframes except for the Weekly, which remains overbought but only just about. However, the 12-hour and the 1D have reset really nicely now.
Cryptonary's take
Bitcoin is at a crucial level here. There is a local horizontal support at current price points that could help BTC bounce from the current price.However, the uptrend line looks lost unless we get a major turnaround in the upcoming 13 hours or so.
Therefore, the underside of the uptrend is likely to act as a resistance. Despite the mechanics looking healthy again, we see BTC trading lower in the coming weeks, even if there is a short-term bounce to retest the underside of the uptrend line.
We see the likely destination of the move down to test $38,800.
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