BTC may get a relief rally, but it won't breakout past $44k

BTC has a healthy leverage market from this perspective. 

Interestingly, a slightly larger-than-normal liquidation level has built up at $42,000, which would be a liquidation of shorts and may drive the market slightly higher. 

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

Technical analysis

BTC broke down from its bear flag and reached both bear flag targets.

Price is now trying to bounce from the bear flag target 2.

Price is currently having a small bounce and has gotten out of the downtrend line.

However, the prior horizontal support at $40,900 will likely act as a new resistance.

If price can break above the $40,900 horizontal resistance, this could see BTC move into $42,000, which could then force a short-squeeze, potentially pushing price to $43,200.

$44,000 is likely to remain a key resistance level, and we don't see price breaking above anytime soon.

Cryptonary's take

BTC is due for a relief rally, and it's possible that even with some of the continued GBTC outflows, we will see a slight relief rally here. 

However, we are unlikely to see any huge upside. We could climb up from $42,000 to $43,200 as a local topping target before we see further downside. 

Ultimately, we still see BTC returning to the yellow box labelled 'Local Move" over the coming months. 

If price does pull back there, this could be considered a good opportunity to DCA relatively heavily for the long run.