BTC pumps: Is there enough momentum to sustain the move?
Bitcoin has seen immense strength over the past 24 hours, surging past key resistance levels in the $29,000 to $29,600 range. This is a noteworthy move, as we previously believed these zones would pose a tougher barrier. However, we must be prudent, as BTC now faces major overhead resistance near the $30,000 mark.
While BTC's push past resistance is promising, are there better trading opportunities in altcoins?
There’s only one way to find out – details below.
TLDR
- BTC smashed through resistance at $29K but now faces a major overhead at the $30K area.
- ETH is lagging behind BTC’s gains as it fails to break the $1,625 resistance
- SOL is surging on a short squeeze, but it appears to be overextended on other fronts
- Introducing TRB: this one might be ripe for a short opportunity
- RUNE is fighting to hold support at $1.50 while the bullish signal stands at $1.61
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice. Any capital-related decision you make is your responsibility and yours only.
BTC | Bitcoin
Wicked price action from BTC. It has gone slightly further than we thought it would have done. Initially, we felt that the $29,000 to $29,600 would provide too great of a resistance level. Let’s reassess to see what we expect next for BTC.Technical analysis
BTC has smashed through the horizontal resistances. We felt that the $29,000 to $29,600 horizontal levels would hold as resistance for BTC, but price has done very well to get above these levels. Also, it has touched the underside of the main uptrend line (thicker yellow line).We think this early $30,000 area and the convergence of the underside of the main uptrend line will be too strong a resistance for BTC. Also, volumes haven’t been massive, so these large moves higher have mostly been driven by a short squeeze.
RSI and funding rates
The RSI is well into overbought territory now (at 73). There are no divergences here; we’d likely need time for a bearish divergence. The overbought territory suggests caution should be exercised here.Funding rates have reset considerably here and are now relatively positive. This indicates that many of the shorts have been driven out.
Lastly, the major area of liquidation now for traders is the mid-$ $26,000 area.
Conclusion on trading BTC
We suggested yesterday that BTC was at an inflexion point, and we’ve had that large move higher over the past 24 hours. Now, price is testing the $30,000 level, which has a resistance just north of it at $30,300 with the convergence of the underside of the main uptrend line.We would exercise caution here. We certainly wouldn’t be fomo’ing in. We feel this may be the local top in the low $30,000.
Action
- BTC has moved up really well. However, we’re not fomo’ing in, but we’re exercising caution here.
- With major resistances very close and the convergence of the underside of the main uptrend line, we believe BTC is at a local top here.
- For swing traders, this may be a good area to reduce some exposure to BTC to re-accumulate at lower prices.
ETH | Ethereum
BTC and even other major altcoins(SOL) are having nice moves higher. Yet, ETH hasn’t performed very well. It still holds the $1,550 major horizontal support, but even here, the next local resistance at $1,625 is providing the current resistance. There is not much strength here, particularly in comparison to BTC and SOL.Technical analysis
As mentioned above, the $1,550 horizontal support has managed to hold nicely; however, ETH can’t seem to get above its local resistance at $1,625. This local resistance area also converges with the underside of the uptrend line.What should provide significant caution here is that BTC has moved very well, yet ETH has not performed similarly. This suggests an even greater level of caution here.
RSI and funding rates
In terms of the RSI, there is a huge divergence between ETH and BTC here. BTC is in overbought territory while ETH is at 53 - very middle ground. For now, no divergences indicate a bias for the next direction.Regarding the funding rate for ETH, it’s now very positive. This indicates that shorts have closed out, and the futures market is healthier here. This wouldn’t rule price, so price will likely move based on technical analysis and overall strength, which, in our opinion, has been poor.
Conclusion on trading ETH
We are still not confident in ETH and perhaps have grown even less confident seeing the strength in BTC then not be reciprocated in ETH. We believe this still goes much lower in the coming months.Action
- Steering clear for now, as ETH hasn’t shown much strength compared to BTC.
- We believe ETH will go lower in the coming months, and that’s where we’ll look to be a buyer for the long run.
SOL | Solana
Monster surge, but this is not spot-driven. Instead, it is mostly due to a short squeeze. Let’s dissect this.Technical analysis
Originally, the resistance area we identified was the first red box between $25 and $26. However, we made it clear that if the funding rates go and stay very negative, then a short-squeeze will likely happen, and this will drive price higher. This is exactly what's happened.We have now moved past the horizontal resistance of $26 and entered into the new resistance box. Chart-wise, this looks quite over-extended, but the market mechanics suggest more volatility may be ahead for SOL.
RSI and funding rates
The RSI is now heavily overbought at 74. The RSI has also put in a bearish divergence, although this may change based on today’s candle close. But right now, we have a higher high in price and a lower high on the oscillator-bear div.Everything here suggests this should be a clear-cut short. However, the funding rate is deeply negative, even though it’s not as negative as it was in the early morning today (Friday 20th). This suggests that there is still a large amount of shorts compared to longs; therefore, this is vulnerable to a short squeeze.
Conclusion on trading SOL
We’re still watching this closely, as a short trade opportunity is definitely on the cards. The issue is the funding rate. So, we’d like to see from here the large amount of shorts to be squeezed out. This would likely see price go another 3-5% higher and the funding rate reset to neutral. If we get this, this would be an opportunity for a short.Action
- We are still watching this closely and, ideally, looking for the funding rate to reset via a short squeeze. If we get this, this could open the door for a trade opportunity - a short.
TRB | Tellor
As trading opportunities go, this is quite a nice setup.Technical analysis
The overall technical analysis here is relatively simple. It’s in a major uptrend that retests the prior high as support and then kicks higher.In terms of any major horizontal levels of support or resistance, there aren’t too many at these higher price points, so the emphasis is on the ladder-like pattern - up and then back down to retest the prior high. The reason for such large moves has been the market mechanics, so let’s look into it.
RSI and funding rates
The RSI is now back into the overbought territory and has put in its second lower high on the oscillator and its second higher high in price - back-to-back bearish divergences.The funding rate is very touch and go here. It’s quite negative but nowhere near as negative as it has been before today. Ideally, to short this, you’d want to see the funding rate reset more.
Conclusion on trading TRB
This could be a nice short. The issue is that the funding rate is still negative, and we’ve seen what that can do to a coin - look at SOL the past few days. If you were to short this, you would want to keep a wide stop loss and play with a smaller size.Action
- Ideally, you wait for the funding rate on TRB to reset to a more neutral level.
- The trade for it would be to short. If you were to short, it would be wise to have a wide stop Loss and, therefore, play with a reduced size.
RUNE | THORChain
We are at a critical point here for RUNE.Technical Analysis
The local downtrend remains, but RUNE was able to bounce off the $1.50 horizontal support, and price is now fighting at the next horizontal level of $1.61.It would be really positive for RUNE if BTC holds up, and RUNE can then close above $1.61 and build a new support above that level. This uptrend, backed by the breakout from the local downtrend, may help RUNE move higher and potentially retest the $1.80 area.
RSI
The RSI is at 45, just above the RSI-based MA at 42, which could support RUNE to continue higher. Currently, there aren’t any major divergences at play.Conclusion on trading RUNE
RUNE is at a key level; it really needs to close above $1.61 and build some support above this level. It may mean that RUNE can move more meaningfully higher if it does.
Action
- Again, another we’re just watching. But, if you have spot bags of this, we’d suggest keeping a close eye on how this closes today and over the weekend.
- If the candle closures are positive, we’d suggest trimming some of your spot bags into the $1.80 level - assuming we get there.
Cryptonary’s take
BTC remains strong but should face resistance near $30k. ETH is lagging and struggling with overhead barriers. Solana's push higher appears driven by shorts covering. TRB could see a pullback if funding rates normalise. And RUNE needs to reclaim key levels to turn bullish.As always, we aim to provide an objective view of the majors based on a confluence of indicators. Remember to trade cautiously with defined stops and avoid overexposure during volatile swings.
Cryptonary OUT!
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