Market Direction

BTC's $91,500 support critical now

Published: Jan 13, 2025

Bitcoin’s struggle between $91,500 and $95,700 has traders bracing for volatility. With shorts increasing and RSI weakening, will BTC test the $80k range next?

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

BTC's Funding Rate is at 0.005%, indicating there is some Short interest here.
BTC's Open Interest is up 4% from the lows but still remains 10% off the highs. The recent 4% increase is likely more dominated by Shorts. However, it is not so dominant that the funding rate has gone negative.
Positioning is still relatively even overall here.

BTC open interest (by number of coins):

1. Bitcoin futures open interest versus price chart showing significant increases in open interest and price trends over time.

Technical analysis

Bitcoin is currently playing between the key range of $91,500 (support) and $95,700 (resistance).
Beyond $95,700, the main horizontal resistance is $98,900.
There is a zone of support below $91,500, with that extending down towards $90,000.
If $90k is lost, it's possible that the price dips into the low $ 80k in the short term.
The RSI is at 41, so it's a middle-ish territory, but it probably still has room to go down further, particularly as it is below its moving average and remains in a downtrend.

2. BitcoinUSD technical chart highlighting support and resistance levels with potential price trajectories and RSI momentum indicators.

Next Support: $91,500
Next Resistance: $95,700
Direction: Bearish
Upside Target: $95,700
Downside Target: $87,000

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Cryptonary's take

So far today, the price has held the lows (in the $ 90k range) and actually responded positively. However, we'll need a strong amount of bidding to push BTC into the resistance of $95,700 and then beyond that. Whilst BTC remains between $91,500 and $95,700, we remain with the view that it's more likely we'll see a breakdown and for BTC to head into the $80k's in the short-term.

A breakout above $95,700 would invalidate this. Today, we have the S&P and Nasdaq gaping down, so we might see a bid there as they close the gap, which could give BTC a bid. However, we expect them to reject after the gap has been filled, and that would also likely result in BTC going lower with them. We expect BTC to head into the low $ 80k in the short term (next 1- 2 weeks). No, we don't believe the inauguration is a buy-the-news event.