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Bulls run for cover as bears regain control | May 15th
The market saw a 9% decrease last week. Unfortunately for the bulls, there is even more downside in store. BTC’s weekly market structure flipped from bullish to bearish last week, suggesting the asset is now on a crystal-clear path toward $25,150, its nearest support level. Buckle up - we’re going for a ride.
TLDR 📃
- The market has found some demand and will likely go higher in the coming days.
- Despite this newfound demand, the market remains bearish and will reach new lows.
- The Total Market Cap index has support between $1.03T - $950B. That’s exactly where we’re going.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the R:R trading tool to help you understand our analysis very quickly. They are not signals and they are not financial advice. Any capital-related decision you make is your responsibility and yours only.
Total Market Cap (Weekly)
The Total Market Cap index represents the entire cryptocurrency market. We track this index to understand where the market is now and predict where it will likely go next.
The crypto market saw a 9% decrease last week, bringing it closer to our expected support level at $1.03T. Some demand was found and the market is rising as we speak, but our views haven’t changed and neither did the market’s trajectory – we’re still bearish.
Altcoins Market Cap (Weekly)
The Altcoins Market Cap index represents the evaluation of the altcoins market - all coins other than BTC.
$550B is our nearest support level, which the altcoins market is close to. We expect it to land there in coming weeks.
Cryptonary's Portfolio
BTC | Bitcoin (Weekly)
BTC is experiencing buying pressure on shorter timeframes, but the weekly market structure flipped to bearish last week. The demand we’re seeing will likely lead to a lower high being formed, after which BTC will start descending to $25,150 again.
ETH | Ethereum (Weekly)
ETH tested $1,740 last week and is now close to support. A $25,150 BTC will result in a sub-$1,740 ETH, so we should look at $1,650 as our next target for this asset.
DYDX | dYdX (Weekly)
On track for $1.80. This can only be a local level, so we are not expecting much strength once it is reached.
HEGIC | Hegic (Weekly)
Last week was completely nuts for HEGIC. That huge candle you’re seeing was a 90% increase, but sellers quickly stepped in and invalidated most of the buying pressure. For now, we should expect ranging and we recommend avoiding trading HEGIC because it can become very volatile.
PENDLE | Pendle (Weekly)
PENDLE managed to recover three weeks of downside in four days. Buyers aren’t playing around here, so it’s best to avoid trading if you’re inexperienced. For the time being, we need to wait and see how PENDLE reacts to resistance ($0.52).
Cryptonary's Watchlist 🔎
DOT | Polkadot (Weekly)
RUNE | THORChain (Weekly)
On track for $1.
SOL | Solana (Weekly)
SOL is trading between two levels $22 and $19. We need to wait and see which one is broken first. Only then can we confirm its next move.
LDO | Lido DAO (Weekly)
Last week, LDO closed as a “bullish hammer”. This candlestick pattern usually signals upside and a trend reversal. In this case, that’s a bearish - bullish reversal. Although this isn’t in line with the rest of the market, buyers could actually push LDO’s price higher, and a weekly closure above $1.9775 will invalidate any downside.
SYN | Synapse (Weekly)
On track for $0.57.
MINA | Mina Protocol (Weekly)
MINA needs to reclaim $0.58 as support to prevent further downside. Unless that happens, it remains on track for $0.4650.
Astar | ASTR (Weekly)
Unless we see a flip of $0.05500 back into support, ASTR will be falling inside the huge accumulation zone it broke in January of this year.
THOR | THORSwap (Weekly)
THOR is retesting $0.13 as resistance. A daily closure above this level will invalidate downside for the time being.
OP | Optimism (Weekly)
OP remains on track for $1.40.
Cryptonary’s take 🧠
The market may have found demand on shorter timeframes, but our thesis is that this will end in a lower high formed, followed by a continuation of the bearish trend.Action points 🎯
- Avoid trading volatile assets (such as PENDLE, HEGIC and LDO) if you’re inexperienced. You could lose a lot of money.
- Don’t get your hopes up. Remain rational – BTC broke its structure and is now bearish on the weekly timeframe. Downside is the only thing you should be looking forward to.
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